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    Bracket Odds

    Last Updated: 8/19/2014 10:04 PM ET

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    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

    Bracket Odds (based on 2012 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):


    Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    South 1 Kentucky - 96.9% 81.5% 56.8% 46.2% 31.2% 21.0%
    South 16 Miss. Val. St. 36.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    South 16 W. Kentucky 63.7% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    South 8 Iowa St. - 48.7% 8.7% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
    South 9 UCONN - 51.3% 9.3% 3.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
    South 5 Wichita St. - 79.4% 45.8% 17.8% 12.4% 6.3% 3.1%
    South 12 VCU - 20.6% 6.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
    South 4 Indiana - 78.7% 43.1% 17.3% 11.4% 5.8% 2.7%
    South 13 New Mexico St. - 21.3% 5.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
    South 6 UNLV - 58.9% 24.7% 11.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
    South 11 Colorado - 41.1% 13.7% 5.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
    South 3 Baylor - 65.3% 44.2% 25.2% 7.8% 3.0% 1.1%
    South 14 SD St. - 34.7% 17.4% 7.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
    South 7 Notre Dame - 53.5% 21.6% 9.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
    South 10 Xavier - 46.5% 17.7% 7.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
    South 2 Duke - 74.9% 50.5% 31.0% 10.5% 4.5% 1.8%
    South 15 Lehigh - 25.1% 10.1% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
    Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    West 1 Michigan St. - 92.3% 60.2% 41.6% 24.5% 12.5% 6.8%
    West 16 Long Island - 7.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    West 8 Memphis - 64.3% 27.8% 16.8% 8.6% 3.7% 1.6%
    West 9 St. Louis - 35.7% 11.0% 5.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
    West 5 New Mexico - 66.9% 34.5% 12.9% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7%
    West 12 Long Beach St. - 33.1% 12.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
    West 4 Louisville - 75.9% 45.6% 19.2% 8.7% 3.3% 1.3%
    West 13 Davidson - 24.1% 7.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
    West 6 Murray St. - 55.8% 23.0% 6.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
    West 11 Colorado St. - 44.2% 16.8% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
    West 3 Marquette - 62.3% 40.6% 14.2% 5.0% 1.5% 0.5%
    West 14 Iona 53.6% 21.9% 11.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
    West 14 BYU 46.4% 15.8% 8.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
    West 7 Florida - 69.5% 29.9% 19.5% 9.4% 4.1% 1.8%
    West 10 Virginia - 30.5% 6.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
    West 2 Missouri - 93.6% 62.4% 46.9% 29.7% 16.9% 9.9%
    West 15 Norfolk St. - 6.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    East 1 Syracuse - 83.4% 57.7% 33.1% 14.0% 6.6% 2.6%
    East 16 UNC - Ash - 16.6% 4.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
    East 8 Kansas St. - 72.9% 30.9% 13.3% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4%
    East 9 Southern Miss - 27.1% 6.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
    East 5 Vanderbilt - 63.6% 31.2% 15.9% 5.5% 2.3% 0.8%
    East 12 Harvard - 36.4% 13.3% 4.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
    East 4 Wisconsin - 81.4% 50.4% 29.2% 12.1% 5.8% 2.1%
    East 13 Montana - 18.6% 5.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
    East 6 Cincinnati - 46.5% 23.7% 5.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
    East 11 Texas - 53.5% 28.8% 7.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
    East 3 Fla. St. - 63.3% 33.0% 8.7% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3%
    East 14 St. Bonaventure - 36.7% 14.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
    East 7 Gonzaga - 57.4% 11.2% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
    East 10 W. Va. - 42.6% 7.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
    East 2 Ohio State - 93.6% 80.0% 66.7% 49.9% 34.1% 19.5%
    East 15 Loyola (MD) - 6.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
    Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    Midwest 1 UNC - 89.2% 64.4% 49.7% 31.3% 17.3% 8.5%
    Midwest 16 Lamar 54.9% 6.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
    Midwest 16 Vermont 45.1% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
    Midwest 8 Creighton - 57.4% 21.2% 11.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.7%
    Midwest 9 Alabama - 42.6% 11.1% 5.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
    Midwest 5 Temple - 52.1% 26.5% 8.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3%
    Midwest 12 California 59.3% 30.7% 16.2% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
    Midwest 12 S. Florida 40.7% 17.2% 7.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
    Midwest 4 Michigan - 71.5% 40.1% 14.5% 5.7% 1.8% 0.6%
    Midwest 13 Ohio - 28.5% 9.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
    Midwest 6 San Diego St. - 41.9% 12.8% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
    Midwest 11 NC State - 58.1% 22.1% 7.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
    Midwest 3 Georgetown - 53.1% 35.7% 15.6% 7.1% 2.7% 0.9%
    Midwest 14 Belmont - 46.9% 29.4% 12.4% 5.6% 2.0% 0.6%
    Midwest 7 Saint Mary's - 40.7% 11.6% 4.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
    Midwest 10 Purdue - 59.3% 23.5% 12.4% 5.6% 2.0% 0.8%
    Midwest 2 Kansas - 81.4% 57.4% 41.2% 25.4% 13.6% 6.7%
    Midwest 15 Detroit - 18.6% 7.5% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

    Picks Pages:
    Bracket Odds (free) Predictalated Bracket (free) Bracket Analysis (free)
    First Four: Tuesday Picks Wednesday Picks
    March 15 (Thursday, Round 1): Predictalator Picks (All 16 games) Paul's Picks (Top 4 Plays)
    March 16 (Friday, Round 1): Predictalator Picks (All 16 games) Paul's Picks (Top 4 Plays)
    Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
    Buy Picks

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    12/15/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of December 8th - 14th one could find that all Week 15 playable against-the-spread NFL picks went 8-4 (67% ATS), highlighted by the Lock of the Week, the Denver Broncos (-4 @ San Diego), covering by more than a touchdown.

    All playable NFL ATS and O/U picks in the last three weeks are a combined 45-22 (67% ATS and O/U). And over the last nine weeks, all playable against-the-spread picks have been .500 or better each week and are 65-37 (64% ATS) overall. This mirrors last season when all playable NFL ATS picks in the second half of the season finished 71-41 (63% ATS), culminating in a 9-1-1 (90% ATS) playoff record.

    With bowls starting at the end of this week, it's important to note that highlighted, "normal" or better bowls picks for the 2013-14 season went 14-9 (61% ATS and O/U). Playable college football bowl totals are also 48-35 (58% O/U) since the site launched.

    NFL and College Basketball halftime plays continue to provided great value. All normal or better against-the-spread plays in these sports combined to go 37-28 (57% ATS). And, lastly, "normal" or better NHL plays went 20-13 (61% ML, O/U and PL), the eighth week in the last nine that has been profitable for hockey.

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