NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulations 03/17/2013 @ PredictionMachine.com

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The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

Bracket Odds (based on 2013 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):

Region	Seed	Team	1st Rnd	2nd Rnd	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Title Game	Champ.
Midwest	1	Louisville	-	97.1%	74.9%	59.6%	40.2%	27.1%	16.2%
Midwest	16	Liberty	45.3%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Midwest	16	UNC-A&T	54.7%	1.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Midwest	8	Colorado St.	-	48.2%	11.6%	6.3%	2.6%	1.1%	0.4%
Midwest	9	Missouri	-	51.8%	13.2%	7.5%	3.2%	1.4%	0.5%
Midwest	5	Oklahoma St.	-	62.6%	32.1%	8.5%	3.2%	1.3%	0.4%
Midwest	12	Oregon	-	37.4%	14.6%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
Midwest	4	St. Louis	-	76.7%	45.8%	14.3%	5.9%	2.3%	0.8%
Midwest	13	New Mexico St.	-	23.3%	7.5%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Midwest	6	Memphis	-	43.1%	15.9%	4.7%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Midwest	11	Middle Tenn.	42.1%	22.1%	8.5%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
Midwest	11	Saint Mary's	57.9%	34.8%	16.2%	6.5%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%
Midwest	3	Michigan St.	-	79.1%	52.2%	24.1%	10.5%	5.1%	2.1%
Midwest	14	Valparaiso	-	20.9%	7.1%	1.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
Midwest	7	Creighton	-	68.1%	30.2%	16.9%	6.9%	3.3%	1.4%
Midwest	10	Cincinnati	-	31.9%	8.2%	3.1%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
Midwest	2	Duke	-	91.4%	60.1%	40.1%	21.3%	12.6%	6.8%
Midwest	15	Albany	-	8.6%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Region	Seed	Team	1st Rnd	2nd Rnd	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Title Game	Champ.
West	1	Gonzaga	-	94.0%	60.9%	43.9%	29.6%	16.2%	8.9%
West	16	Southern U.	-	6.0%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
West	8	Pittsburgh	-	72.5%	31.7%	20.2%	11.9%	5.4%	2.6%
West	9	Wichita St.	-	27.5%	6.7%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
West	5	Wisconsin	-	65.7%	43.9%	17.2%	9.3%	3.8%	1.5%
West	12	Mississippi	-	34.3%	17.6%	4.9%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
West	4	Kansas St.	-	58.5%	24.7%	7.7%	3.2%	0.9%	0.3%
West	13	Boise St.	50.3%	21.0%	7.1%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
West	13	La Salle	49.7%	20.5%	6.6%	1.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
West	6	Arizona	-	61.0%	34.3%	14.5%	5.4%	1.8%	0.6%
West	11	Belmont	-	39.0%	17.4%	5.7%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
West	3	New Mexico	-	78.2%	42.4%	17.8%	6.4%	2.0%	0.7%
West	14	Harvard	-	21.8%	5.9%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
West	7	Notre Dame	-	50.1%	19.6%	10.1%	3.7%	1.2%	0.4%
West	10	Iowa St.	-	49.9%	19.9%	10.2%	3.7%	1.2%	0.4%
West	2	Ohio State	-	80.9%	54.0%	38.3%	20.5%	9.8%	4.8%
West	15	Iona	-	19.1%	6.6%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
Region	Seed	Team	1st Rnd	2nd Rnd	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Title Game	Champ.
South	1	Kansas	-	91.8%	57.4%	32.4%	17.7%	8.2%	3.6%
South	16	W. Kentucky	-	8.2%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
South	8	UNC	-	70.3%	33.0%	16.9%	8.3%	3.5%	1.4%
South	9	Villanova	-	29.7%	8.6%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
South	5	VCU	-	68.5%	30.7%	13.2%	5.6%	2.1%	0.8%
South	12	Akron	-	31.5%	9.6%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
South	4	Michigan	-	78.4%	52.8%	30.7%	17.9%	9.0%	4.4%
South	13	SD St.	-	21.6%	7.0%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
South	6	UCLA	-	36.7%	9.3%	3.6%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
South	11	Minnesota	-	63.3%	22.3%	11.5%	4.8%	1.8%	0.6%
South	3	Florida	-	90.1%	66.2%	46.9%	27.6%	14.8%	7.6%
South	14	Northwestern St.	-	9.9%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
South	7	San Diego St.	-	57.7%	26.9%	9.3%	3.4%	1.0%	0.3%
South	10	Oklahoma	-	42.3%	16.4%	4.9%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
South	2	Georgetown	-	84.4%	52.9%	22.9%	10.1%	3.8%	1.3%
South	15	Fla. Gulf Coast	-	15.6%	3.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Region	Seed	Team	1st Rnd	2nd Rnd	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Title Game	Champ.
East	1	Indiana	-	94.1%	75.2%	60.3%	49.8%	35.6%	23.5%
East	16	Long Island	48.8%	3.6%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
East	16	James Madison	51.2%	2.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
East	8	NC State	-	62.3%	16.8%	8.2%	4.4%	1.8%	0.6%
East	9	Temple	-	37.7%	6.6%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
East	5	UNLV	-	58.7%	23.3%	5.4%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
East	12	California	-	41.3%	13.2%	2.5%	1.0%	0.2%	0.1%
East	4	Syracuse	-	86.6%	60.3%	20.8%	13.4%	6.2%	2.5%
East	13	Montana	-	13.4%	3.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
East	6	Butler	-	53.9%	22.9%	9.0%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%
East	11	Bucknell	-	46.1%	17.7%	6.5%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
East	3	Marquette	-	62.6%	40.6%	21.5%	6.9%	2.6%	0.8%
East	14	Davidson	-	37.4%	18.8%	7.4%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
East	7	Illinois	-	51.3%	20.7%	10.0%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%
East	10	Colorado	-	48.7%	19.0%	8.8%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
East	2	Miami (FL)	-	83.3%	55.9%	35.7%	12.2%	5.0%	1.8%
East	15	Pacific	-	16.7%	4.4%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Subscribers to the 2013 College Basketball Tournament Package (full tournament, weekly or daily) get:

Paul's Picks with written breakdowns on the top ATS picks each day
Against-the-spread, over/under and straight-up Predictalator Picks with confidence and Play Value Calculator recommendations for each game
Access to the Play Analyzer and Customizable Predictalator, giving you the power to re-run the games using your lines

As a reminder, check out these results highlights from the 2010, 2011 and 2012 tournaments:

42-27 (61% ATS) for all normal+ ATS plays (greater than 57% confidence to cover)
84-63 (57% ATS) for all playable ATS plays (greater than 53% confidence to cover)
29-13 (69% ATS) for Paul's Picks (highlighted top plays) in first week of tournament

2013 Bracket Odds

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