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    2013 Bracket Odds

    Last Updated: 3/17/2013 at 7:00 PM ET

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    Tuesday (3/19) Wednesday (3/20)
    Thursday (3/21): Picks Analysis Paul's Picks
    Friday (3/22): Picks Analysis Paul's Picks
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    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

    Bracket Odds (based on 2013 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):

    Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    Midwest 1 Louisville - 97.1% 74.9% 59.6% 40.2% 27.1% 16.2%
    Midwest 16 Liberty 45.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Midwest 16 UNC-A&T 54.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Midwest 8 Colorado St. - 48.2% 11.6% 6.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
    Midwest 9 Missouri - 51.8% 13.2% 7.5% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
    Midwest 5 Oklahoma St. - 62.6% 32.1% 8.5% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4%
    Midwest 12 Oregon - 37.4% 14.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
    Midwest 4 St. Louis - 76.7% 45.8% 14.3% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8%
    Midwest 13 New Mexico St. - 23.3% 7.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
    Midwest 6 Memphis - 43.1% 15.9% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
    Midwest 11 Middle Tenn. 42.1% 22.1% 8.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
    Midwest 11 Saint Mary's 57.9% 34.8% 16.2% 6.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
    Midwest 3 Michigan St. - 79.1% 52.2% 24.1% 10.5% 5.1% 2.1%
    Midwest 14 Valparaiso - 20.9% 7.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
    Midwest 7 Creighton - 68.1% 30.2% 16.9% 6.9% 3.3% 1.4%
    Midwest 10 Cincinnati - 31.9% 8.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
    Midwest 2 Duke - 91.4% 60.1% 40.1% 21.3% 12.6% 6.8%
    Midwest 15 Albany - 8.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    West 1 Gonzaga - 94.0% 60.9% 43.9% 29.6% 16.2% 8.9%
    West 16 Southern U. - 6.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    West 8 Pittsburgh - 72.5% 31.7% 20.2% 11.9% 5.4% 2.6%
    West 9 Wichita St. - 27.5% 6.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
    West 5 Wisconsin - 65.7% 43.9% 17.2% 9.3% 3.8% 1.5%
    West 12 Mississippi - 34.3% 17.6% 4.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
    West 4 Kansas St. - 58.5% 24.7% 7.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3%
    West 13 Boise St. 50.3% 21.0% 7.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
    West 13 La Salle 49.7% 20.5% 6.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
    West 6 Arizona - 61.0% 34.3% 14.5% 5.4% 1.8% 0.6%
    West 11 Belmont - 39.0% 17.4% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
    West 3 New Mexico - 78.2% 42.4% 17.8% 6.4% 2.0% 0.7%
    West 14 Harvard - 21.8% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
    West 7 Notre Dame - 50.1% 19.6% 10.1% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4%
    West 10 Iowa St. - 49.9% 19.9% 10.2% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4%
    West 2 Ohio State - 80.9% 54.0% 38.3% 20.5% 9.8% 4.8%
    West 15 Iona - 19.1% 6.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
    Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    South 1 Kansas - 91.8% 57.4% 32.4% 17.7% 8.2% 3.6%
    South 16 W. Kentucky - 8.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    South 8 UNC - 70.3% 33.0% 16.9% 8.3% 3.5% 1.4%
    South 9 Villanova - 29.7% 8.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
    South 5 VCU - 68.5% 30.7% 13.2% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8%
    South 12 Akron - 31.5% 9.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
    South 4 Michigan - 78.4% 52.8% 30.7% 17.9% 9.0% 4.4%
    South 13 SD St. - 21.6% 7.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
    South 6 UCLA - 36.7% 9.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
    South 11 Minnesota - 63.3% 22.3% 11.5% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6%
    South 3 Florida - 90.1% 66.2% 46.9% 27.6% 14.8% 7.6%
    South 14 Northwestern St. - 9.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
    South 7 San Diego St. - 57.7% 26.9% 9.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%
    South 10 Oklahoma - 42.3% 16.4% 4.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
    South 2 Georgetown - 84.4% 52.9% 22.9% 10.1% 3.8% 1.3%
    South 15 Fla. Gulf Coast - 15.6% 3.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
    Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    East 1 Indiana - 94.1% 75.2% 60.3% 49.8% 35.6% 23.5%
    East 16 Long Island 48.8% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    East 16 James Madison 51.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    East 8 NC State - 62.3% 16.8% 8.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6%
    East 9 Temple - 37.7% 6.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
    East 5 UNLV - 58.7% 23.3% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
    East 12 California - 41.3% 13.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
    East 4 Syracuse - 86.6% 60.3% 20.8% 13.4% 6.2% 2.5%
    East 13 Montana - 13.4% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
    East 6 Butler - 53.9% 22.9% 9.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
    East 11 Bucknell - 46.1% 17.7% 6.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
    East 3 Marquette - 62.6% 40.6% 21.5% 6.9% 2.6% 0.8%
    East 14 Davidson - 37.4% 18.8% 7.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
    East 7 Illinois - 51.3% 20.7% 10.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
    East 10 Colorado - 48.7% 19.0% 8.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
    East 2 Miami (FL) - 83.3% 55.9% 35.7% 12.2% 5.0% 1.8%
    East 15 Pacific - 16.7% 4.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

    Subscribers to the 2013 College Basketball Tournament Package (full tournament, weekly or daily) get:

    As a reminder, check out these results highlights from the 2010, 2011 and 2012 tournaments:

    • 42-27 (61% ATS) for all normal+ ATS plays (greater than 57% confidence to cover)
    • 84-63 (57% ATS) for all playable ATS plays (greater than 53% confidence to cover)
    • 29-13 (69% ATS) for Paul's Picks (highlighted top plays) in first week of tournament

    Picks Pages:
    Tuesday (3/19) Wednesday (3/20)
    Thursday (3/21): Picks Analysis Paul's Picks
    Friday (3/22): Picks Analysis Paul's Picks
    Bracket Odds
    Predictalated Bracket
    Bracket Simulator
    Player Pick'em Contest

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    The Predictalator

    ResultsFinder Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of February 1st-7th, one could find that the NFL Lock of the Week in the Super Bowl (Denver +6) easily covered as the Broncos defeated the Panthers 24-10. All-time, in the NFL Playoffs, Locks of the Week are 20-5 (80% ATS). This includes Super Bowl against-the-spread picks, which are now 5-2 (71% ATS). All-time on the site, all against-the-spread NFL Playoff picks are now 46-20 (70% ATS).

    The Super Bowl was profitable in other ways as well. Not only did the UNDER (45.5) for the full game cover, the halftime side (Denver +4.5) and total (UNDER 23) did as well. And props were just as strong as all "normal" or better Super Bowl 50 player prop bets went 11-2 (85% props) to generate a return of +$592 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Including all published props, game picks and halftime picks, all playable picks on the site for Super Bowl 50 went 38-11 (78%) and generated a profit of +$1,028 for a normal $50 player.

    Elsewhere in sports, all "normal" or better (greater than 57% confidence) NBA against-the-spread and over/under picks combined to go 8-3 (73% ATS and O/U) over the last week and all "normal" or better against-the-spread picks in college basketball went 10-5 (67% ATS) over the same stretch.

    Check out the Shop or Individual Picks pages now to learn more.

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