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2013 Bracket Odds

Last Updated: 3/17/2013 at 7:00 PM ET

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The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

Bracket Odds (based on 2013 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):

Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
Midwest 1 Louisville - 97.1% 74.9% 59.6% 40.2% 27.1% 16.2%
Midwest 16 Liberty 45.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 16 UNC-A&T 54.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 8 Colorado St. - 48.2% 11.6% 6.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Midwest 9 Missouri - 51.8% 13.2% 7.5% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
Midwest 5 Oklahoma St. - 62.6% 32.1% 8.5% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4%
Midwest 12 Oregon - 37.4% 14.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Midwest 4 St. Louis - 76.7% 45.8% 14.3% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8%
Midwest 13 New Mexico St. - 23.3% 7.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 6 Memphis - 43.1% 15.9% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Midwest 11 Middle Tenn. 42.1% 22.1% 8.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Midwest 11 Saint Mary's 57.9% 34.8% 16.2% 6.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
Midwest 3 Michigan St. - 79.1% 52.2% 24.1% 10.5% 5.1% 2.1%
Midwest 14 Valparaiso - 20.9% 7.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Midwest 7 Creighton - 68.1% 30.2% 16.9% 6.9% 3.3% 1.4%
Midwest 10 Cincinnati - 31.9% 8.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Midwest 2 Duke - 91.4% 60.1% 40.1% 21.3% 12.6% 6.8%
Midwest 15 Albany - 8.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
West 1 Gonzaga - 94.0% 60.9% 43.9% 29.6% 16.2% 8.9%
West 16 Southern U. - 6.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West 8 Pittsburgh - 72.5% 31.7% 20.2% 11.9% 5.4% 2.6%
West 9 Wichita St. - 27.5% 6.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
West 5 Wisconsin - 65.7% 43.9% 17.2% 9.3% 3.8% 1.5%
West 12 Mississippi - 34.3% 17.6% 4.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
West 4 Kansas St. - 58.5% 24.7% 7.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3%
West 13 Boise St. 50.3% 21.0% 7.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
West 13 La Salle 49.7% 20.5% 6.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
West 6 Arizona - 61.0% 34.3% 14.5% 5.4% 1.8% 0.6%
West 11 Belmont - 39.0% 17.4% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
West 3 New Mexico - 78.2% 42.4% 17.8% 6.4% 2.0% 0.7%
West 14 Harvard - 21.8% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
West 7 Notre Dame - 50.1% 19.6% 10.1% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4%
West 10 Iowa St. - 49.9% 19.9% 10.2% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4%
West 2 Ohio State - 80.9% 54.0% 38.3% 20.5% 9.8% 4.8%
West 15 Iona - 19.1% 6.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
South 1 Kansas - 91.8% 57.4% 32.4% 17.7% 8.2% 3.6%
South 16 W. Kentucky - 8.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 8 UNC - 70.3% 33.0% 16.9% 8.3% 3.5% 1.4%
South 9 Villanova - 29.7% 8.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
South 5 VCU - 68.5% 30.7% 13.2% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8%
South 12 Akron - 31.5% 9.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
South 4 Michigan - 78.4% 52.8% 30.7% 17.9% 9.0% 4.4%
South 13 SD St. - 21.6% 7.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
South 6 UCLA - 36.7% 9.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
South 11 Minnesota - 63.3% 22.3% 11.5% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6%
South 3 Florida - 90.1% 66.2% 46.9% 27.6% 14.8% 7.6%
South 14 Northwestern St. - 9.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South 7 San Diego St. - 57.7% 26.9% 9.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%
South 10 Oklahoma - 42.3% 16.4% 4.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
South 2 Georgetown - 84.4% 52.9% 22.9% 10.1% 3.8% 1.3%
South 15 Fla. Gulf Coast - 15.6% 3.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
East 1 Indiana - 94.1% 75.2% 60.3% 49.8% 35.6% 23.5%
East 16 Long Island 48.8% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 16 James Madison 51.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 8 NC State - 62.3% 16.8% 8.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6%
East 9 Temple - 37.7% 6.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
East 5 UNLV - 58.7% 23.3% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
East 12 California - 41.3% 13.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
East 4 Syracuse - 86.6% 60.3% 20.8% 13.4% 6.2% 2.5%
East 13 Montana - 13.4% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East 6 Butler - 53.9% 22.9% 9.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
East 11 Bucknell - 46.1% 17.7% 6.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
East 3 Marquette - 62.6% 40.6% 21.5% 6.9% 2.6% 0.8%
East 14 Davidson - 37.4% 18.8% 7.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
East 7 Illinois - 51.3% 20.7% 10.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
East 10 Colorado - 48.7% 19.0% 8.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
East 2 Miami (FL) - 83.3% 55.9% 35.7% 12.2% 5.0% 1.8%
East 15 Pacific - 16.7% 4.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Subscribers to the 2013 College Basketball Tournament Package (full tournament, weekly or daily) get:

As a reminder, check out these results highlights from the 2010, 2011 and 2012 tournaments:

  • 42-27 (61% ATS) for all normal+ ATS plays (greater than 57% confidence to cover)
  • 84-63 (57% ATS) for all playable ATS plays (greater than 53% confidence to cover)
  • 29-13 (69% ATS) for Paul's Picks (highlighted top plays) in first week of tournament

Picks Pages:
Tuesday (3/19) Wednesday (3/20)
Thursday (3/21): Picks Analysis Paul's Picks
Friday (3/22): Picks Analysis Paul's Picks
Bracket Odds
Predictalated Bracket
Bracket Simulator
Player Pick'em Contest

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For Week 8 in the NFL, there are a total of 3 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, including seven picks that cover more than 60% of the time and three predicted outright upsets.

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10/27/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 20 - 26, one could find that highlighted, "normal" or better MLB picks went 2-0 to start the World Series and are now 31-11 (74% ML, O/U and RL) all-time. A normal $50 player using our play value recommendations would be +$747 during this MLB postseason.

In football, halftime picks were particularly strong. In Week 8 for the NFL, "normal" or better (and there are better) halftime picks went 7-1 (88% ATS and O/U). Combined NFL Week 8 and College Football Week 9 "normal" or better halftime picks hit 64% (ATS and O/U) and generated a profit of +$950 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Also, with a Central Michigan (-4) victory over Buffalo, 20-14, College Football Locks of the Week have covered in four straight weeks helping football Locks of the Week to a 103-59 (64% ATS) record all-time.

And with the season starting this week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

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