2013 Bracket Odds

Last Updated: 3/17/2013 at 7:00 PM ET

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The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

Bracket Odds (based on 2013 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):

Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
Midwest 1 Louisville - 97.1% 74.9% 59.6% 40.2% 27.1% 16.2%
Midwest 16 Liberty 45.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 16 UNC-A&T 54.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 8 Colorado St. - 48.2% 11.6% 6.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Midwest 9 Missouri - 51.8% 13.2% 7.5% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
Midwest 5 Oklahoma St. - 62.6% 32.1% 8.5% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4%
Midwest 12 Oregon - 37.4% 14.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Midwest 4 St. Louis - 76.7% 45.8% 14.3% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8%
Midwest 13 New Mexico St. - 23.3% 7.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 6 Memphis - 43.1% 15.9% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Midwest 11 Middle Tenn. 42.1% 22.1% 8.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Midwest 11 Saint Mary's 57.9% 34.8% 16.2% 6.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
Midwest 3 Michigan St. - 79.1% 52.2% 24.1% 10.5% 5.1% 2.1%
Midwest 14 Valparaiso - 20.9% 7.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Midwest 7 Creighton - 68.1% 30.2% 16.9% 6.9% 3.3% 1.4%
Midwest 10 Cincinnati - 31.9% 8.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Midwest 2 Duke - 91.4% 60.1% 40.1% 21.3% 12.6% 6.8%
Midwest 15 Albany - 8.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
West 1 Gonzaga - 94.0% 60.9% 43.9% 29.6% 16.2% 8.9%
West 16 Southern U. - 6.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West 8 Pittsburgh - 72.5% 31.7% 20.2% 11.9% 5.4% 2.6%
West 9 Wichita St. - 27.5% 6.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
West 5 Wisconsin - 65.7% 43.9% 17.2% 9.3% 3.8% 1.5%
West 12 Mississippi - 34.3% 17.6% 4.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
West 4 Kansas St. - 58.5% 24.7% 7.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3%
West 13 Boise St. 50.3% 21.0% 7.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
West 13 La Salle 49.7% 20.5% 6.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
West 6 Arizona - 61.0% 34.3% 14.5% 5.4% 1.8% 0.6%
West 11 Belmont - 39.0% 17.4% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
West 3 New Mexico - 78.2% 42.4% 17.8% 6.4% 2.0% 0.7%
West 14 Harvard - 21.8% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
West 7 Notre Dame - 50.1% 19.6% 10.1% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4%
West 10 Iowa St. - 49.9% 19.9% 10.2% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4%
West 2 Ohio State - 80.9% 54.0% 38.3% 20.5% 9.8% 4.8%
West 15 Iona - 19.1% 6.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
South 1 Kansas - 91.8% 57.4% 32.4% 17.7% 8.2% 3.6%
South 16 W. Kentucky - 8.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 8 UNC - 70.3% 33.0% 16.9% 8.3% 3.5% 1.4%
South 9 Villanova - 29.7% 8.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
South 5 VCU - 68.5% 30.7% 13.2% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8%
South 12 Akron - 31.5% 9.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
South 4 Michigan - 78.4% 52.8% 30.7% 17.9% 9.0% 4.4%
South 13 SD St. - 21.6% 7.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
South 6 UCLA - 36.7% 9.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
South 11 Minnesota - 63.3% 22.3% 11.5% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6%
South 3 Florida - 90.1% 66.2% 46.9% 27.6% 14.8% 7.6%
South 14 Northwestern St. - 9.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South 7 San Diego St. - 57.7% 26.9% 9.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%
South 10 Oklahoma - 42.3% 16.4% 4.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
South 2 Georgetown - 84.4% 52.9% 22.9% 10.1% 3.8% 1.3%
South 15 Fla. Gulf Coast - 15.6% 3.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 1st Rnd 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
East 1 Indiana - 94.1% 75.2% 60.3% 49.8% 35.6% 23.5%
East 16 Long Island 48.8% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 16 James Madison 51.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 8 NC State - 62.3% 16.8% 8.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6%
East 9 Temple - 37.7% 6.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
East 5 UNLV - 58.7% 23.3% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
East 12 California - 41.3% 13.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
East 4 Syracuse - 86.6% 60.3% 20.8% 13.4% 6.2% 2.5%
East 13 Montana - 13.4% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East 6 Butler - 53.9% 22.9% 9.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
East 11 Bucknell - 46.1% 17.7% 6.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
East 3 Marquette - 62.6% 40.6% 21.5% 6.9% 2.6% 0.8%
East 14 Davidson - 37.4% 18.8% 7.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
East 7 Illinois - 51.3% 20.7% 10.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
East 10 Colorado - 48.7% 19.0% 8.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
East 2 Miami (FL) - 83.3% 55.9% 35.7% 12.2% 5.0% 1.8%
East 15 Pacific - 16.7% 4.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Subscribers to the 2013 College Basketball Tournament Package (full tournament, weekly or daily) get:

As a reminder, check out these results highlights from the 2010, 2011 and 2012 tournaments:

  • 42-27 (61% ATS) for all normal+ ATS plays (greater than 57% confidence to cover)
  • 84-63 (57% ATS) for all playable ATS plays (greater than 53% confidence to cover)
  • 29-13 (69% ATS) for Paul's Picks (highlighted top plays) in first week of tournament

Picks Pages:
Tuesday (3/19) Wednesday (3/20)
Thursday (3/21): Picks Analysis Paul's Picks
Friday (3/22): Picks Analysis Paul's Picks
Bracket Odds
Predictalated Bracket
Bracket Simulator
Player Pick'em Contest

Archive

The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home field advantage) and weather in each game.

04/14/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of April 7th - 13th, one could find that all highlighted, MLB "normal" or better picks went 26-19 (58% ML, O/U, RL). This includes "normal" over/under picks going 10-4 (71% O/U). All-time (since the start of the 2012 season), all normal over/under MLB plays are 270-212 (56% O/U).

As the regular season concludes, NBA plays are heating up. All normal plays for the week in the NBA went 7-4 (64% ATS & O/U). Total picks continue to be strong, going 4-2 (67% O/U) with "normal" picks last week. Such "normal" plays are 43-32 (57% O/U) since the beginning of the year in the NBA.

The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. This provides us the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any contest including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under winners of each game.

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