New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NFL GameChangers: Week 12 Edition (11/28/16)

    By Frank Brank @realfbra


    The Situation:
    The Vikings were playing in their biggest game of the season on Thanksgiving. Playing in Detroit against the Lions who they were tied with atop the division. Sam Bradford found himself in a tie game with less than forty seconds left. The Vikings, who played the entire game close to the vest offensively, tried to drive for a game-winning score when Darius Slay jumped a Bradford pass for an interception. The Lions went on to kick the game-winning field goal themselves to end regulation.

    The Take: The Lions actually disguised their defense well on what would be the game-winning interception. They faked man-to-man defense while actually in a zone. Darius Slay, with help from the safety over the top, checked off of his man in coverage and jumped the out-route ran by Adam Thielen who was open at the time.

    The Vikings took an interesting time to try to score considering Bradford only threw for six yards per attempt on Thursday. Heading into the last few seconds, the Vikings held a 48% chance to win on the road. After the interception, the Lions then held a 90.8% chance to win and would eventually allow Matt Prater to knock one through the uprights as time expired.



    The Situation: After an exciting finish in regulation, the Broncos and Chiefs traded field goals in overtime. The Broncos decided to try a 62-yard field goal with just a minute left in the game on 4th and 10 as opposed to punting or going for it. McManus would miss the field goal and resulted in the Chiefs getting the ball on Denver's side of the field. The Chiefs then drove the short field and kicked the game-winning field goal.

    The Take: In a close divisional race, the Broncos adding a game to the loss column was huge. If Gary Kubiak was going to take a chance to win the game, going for 4th and 10 seems like a much better option than kicking a 62-yard field goal with enough time left on the clock for the Chiefs to drive in the opposite direction. In a game where Denver was a small favorite at the time at 51.5%, the Chiefs odds immediately jumped to 65.4% after the miss.

    From some independent studies, it seems 4th and 10 is converted around 25% of the time. One would think the odds of McManus hitting a field goal out of his reported range is less than 25%. Thus, if Kubiak was set on going for the win, he should have tried to convert with his offense since an incomplete pass or similar plays would have resulted in a longer field for the Chiefs anyway.

    However, in such a tight divisional race and such a low chance to win the game on that drive, the best value would have been to punt the ball into the Chiefs own territory and make it close to impossible to get into field goal range with the time remaining. The situation begs the question of if the Raiders happened to lose earlier Sunday if Kubiak would have made the decision to kick the field goal, punt, or go for it on fourth down.
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL GameChangers: Week 13 Edition (12/05/16)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL GameChangers: Week 11 Edition (11/21/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    03/27/2017 Highlight: With the start of MLB right around the corner, we can use our ResultsFinder tool to uncover some past success in baseball. April has historically been a great month for the Predictalator, as evidenced by last season's outstanding 41-22 (65.1%) record on all "normal" or better ML, RL, and O/U plays. A $50 bettor would have profited a whopping $1,002 using our recommended wager sizes in April. MLB season win totals have also been extremely fruitful in the history of this site, with the Predictalator producing an outstanding 54-19 (74.0%) record on all playable win totals.

    March Madness is winding down and it was another solid month for the Predictalator. There were a total of 69 "normal" or better college hoops positions (sides and totals) in the month of March, and the Predictalator posted a strong 42-27 (60.9%) record, generating $704 in total profits. NBA has also followed suit with "normal" or better positions winning at a 58.1% clip since the beginning of February, and at a 57.9% clip for March.

    NHL profits continue to roll right along as well, as the Predictalator has cashed in on nine of 12 "normal" or better positions in March. The Predictalator has now amassed an incredible 45-28 (61.6%) on all "normal" or better money lines, puck lines, and totals this season, totaling $499 in total profits for a ?$50 bettor.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Win Totals - Over/Under Picks
    We take a look at the 2017 MLB over/under team season win totals. Highlighted, "normal" or better MLB Win Total Picks are 54-19 all-time. See free picks on the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies and more.

    Updated Bracket Odds - Final Four
    The Predictalator simulates the Final Four 50,000 times to see how likely each remaining team is to win the NCAA Tournament

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com