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    NFL Line Movement (09/11/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Packers, Browns and Vikings. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    Welcome back NFL, we missed you!

    With every team in action this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today.

    Plus fun NFL prop bets including the Packers, Browns and Vikings.

    Bears vs. Packers

    Green Bay has won 11 of the last 13 regular-season and playoff matchups against Chicago. The Packers embarrassed their rivals 55-14 in Lambeau last November and are looking for a sixth consecutive road victory over the Bears. The public and most experts are picking the Cheeseheads to win. Nearly 90 percent of wagers are on Aaron Rodgers and company to cover the spread. Green Bay opened as four point road favorites and is now favored by a touchdown in the Windy City.

    Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 1,208 yards and 12 touchdowns in the last four regular-season meetings in Chicago. Since becoming the starter in 2008, the Packers' quarterback, when facing the Bears, is 12-3 (80%) against-the-spread.

    Odds to be the NFL Passing Leader
    • Aaron Rodgers: 4/1

    Rodgers is a two-time MVP, a four-time Pro Bowl selection and a Super Bowl Champion. Despite all of his accomplishments, the head cheese in Green Bay has never won the passing title. Rodgers is the second favorite behind Andrew Luck. If he isn't the NFL passing leader it won't be because of Jordy's injury.

    Jets vs. Browns

    Which fan base is more depressed - Cleveland, which took Johnny Manziel in the first round last year but is starting 36-year old Josh McCown, or New York, who's expected starting quarterback, Geno Smith, got his jaw broke by his own teammate? Either way, this one should be a doozy with two replacement level quarterbacks squaring off against above average pass defenses.

    The Jets opened as nominal favorites but have been bet up to the standard home field advantage (3 points). The real line movement is with the total. Oddsmakers posted an over/under of 41 points (the lowest total in Week 1) but money continues to come in on the under. The total is now down to 39.5.

    Which NFL coach is going to be Fired First?
    • Mike Pettine: 11/4
    • Todd Bowles: 25/1

    This is an important game for both coaches who are already on the hot seat. Pettine is the favorite to be the first coach fired and Bowles, the poor guy, has odds to be canned even though he is in his first season at the helm.

    49ers vs. Vikings

    This game features the largest line movement. When Week 1 odds were posted back in April, San Francisco opened as a 3.5 point favorite at home. Then there was an exodus of talent from the Bay Area. Per ESPN, players who left the 49ers played 37 percent of the team's total snaps. Key players include: Justin Smith, Frank Gore, Chris Borland, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, Mike Iupati and Michael Crabtree to name a few.

    The Niners' talent drain coupled with the return of Adrian Peterson and the high expectations for Teddy Bridgewater have turned the odds upside down. The Vikings are now the favorites (-2.5). Minnesota has only been a road favorite twice since 2011.

    Odds to be the NFL Rushing Leader
    • Adrian Peterson: 7/2

    In his career, Peterson has only finished with less than 1,200 rushing yards once and has never posted less than double-digit rushing touchdowns (in years he played more than one game). One of our bold predictions back in July was that AP would be No. 1 fantasy running back. That has changed now as we head into Week 1 but Peterson is still a clear top five back and is projected to finish with the third most rushing yards.


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