New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Playoff Scenarios (12/30/15)

    By Paul Bessire
    A crash course in NFL Playoff scenarios.



    After a crazy week, let's put context around the different playoff scenarios. All likelihoods discussed are based on 50,000 simulations of Week 17 and our playoff probabilities.

    NFC

    The Redskins are locked into the four seed – the only one of 12 seeds from either conference figured out.

    For the one seed, Carolina needs a win or a Cardinals loss to lock up the top seed. The chances of that happening are 81%. Arizona has a 19% chance of getting the one seed. The team that does not get the one seed from that scenario will have the two seed.

    Green Bay and Minnesota are playing for the NFC North title. There is a 53% chance that the Packers win, giving the Packers a 53% chance at the three seed and 47% chance Green Bay gets the fifth seed and travels to take on Washington next week.

    Minnesota is 47% likely to get the three seed. The fifth and sixth seeds if Minnesota loses at Green Bay will be determined by the Cardinals/Seahawks game. There is a 17% chance Minnesota gets the six seed and we see a Vikings at Packers rematch next week.

    That leaves an 83% chance that Seattle gets the six seed.

    If the Packers travel to Washington we would project that game as a pick'em and Green Bay to be a 3.5 point underdog hosting Seattle. Based on likelihood to get out of the wild card round with a win, it is in the Packers best interest to lose Sunday.

    That leaves us with most likely seeds: 1) Carolina, 2) Arizona, 3) Green Bay, 4) Washington, 5) Minnesota, and 6) Seattle

    AFC

    The AFC is a little more open with eight teams alive and no team locked into a seed .

    We'll start with the AFC South… To get in, Indianapolis needs the nine following things to happen: Colts win, Texans lose and the Ravens, Falcons, Bills, Broncos, Dolphins, Raiders and Steelers all win. The likelihood of that happening assuming Andrew Luck does not start is less than half a percent. In 50,000 simulations, that happened 37 times. With a healthy Andrew Luck, that jumps all the way up to 46 times in 50,000 times.

    For the one seed, New England needs a win or a Denver loss to lock up home-field advantage. The chances of that happening are (also) 81%.

    Denver and Kansas City are vying for the AFC West title. The Broncos are 81% likely to win AFC West by beating San Diego or Kansas City losing to Oakland. The Broncos currently have a 19% chance at the one seed, a 54% chance at the two seed, an 8% chance at the three seed and a 19% chance at the five seed.

    Cincinnati is likely to get the three seed. The Bengals are 73% likely to get the three seed and 27% likely to end up with a first round bye and the two seed.

    The Jets get the six seed if they win or the Steelers lose. The chances of that happening are 66.4%, which leaves 33.6% for the Steelers to make it in.

    Then the most likely AFC seeds are: 1) Patriots 2) Broncos 3) Bengals 4) Texans 5) Chiefs 6) Jets

    The most likely current Super Bowl is Arizona winning by 4 points over the Patriots. The Cardinals are 29% likely to win it all, followed by the Patriots at 18%, Panthers at 14%, Broncos and Seahawks at 8%, the Bengals at 6% and the Chiefs at 5%
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Black Monday (01/04/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Week 17 (12/30/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    03/13/2017 Highlight: Using our ResultsFinder tool, it's evident that the Predictalator is entering March Madness in incredible form. The Predictalator posted 59 "normal" or better plays in March (plays with greater than 57% confidence) and went a stellar 36-23 (61.0%) on those plays. An average $50 bettor would have profited $678 using our recommended wager sizes. After posting an outstanding 8-1 (88.9%) ATS record on "normal" or better sides in last year's NCAA Tournament, the Predictalator looks poised to produce more NCAA Tournament winners.

    NBA predictions continue to follow the same heat wave of college hoops, as all playable sides are 30-25 (54.5%) ATS in the month of March. More importantly, top plays continue to produce at a staggering clip, with all "normal" or better sides off to a solid 9-3 (75.0%) ATS mark in March, producing $284 in profits for an average $50 bettor.

    The Predictalator's NHL picks continue to cash in consistenly as "normal" or better ML and PL plays are an outstanding 32-18 (64.0%) on the season, amassing $507 in total profits. While the betting market has really tightened up with NHL in recent months, the Predictalator continues to find success and is now 449-367 (55.0%) on all playable ML and PL plays this season.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    College Basketball Picks - Friday Games
    The Predictalator has played all of Thursday's NCAA Tournament games 50,000 times to analyze chances of each team winning relative to the spread and over/under. See UNC vs. Butler and more.

    A.L. MVP & Cy Young Odds
    Frank Brank explores the odds for A.L. MVP and A.L. Cy Young Awards posted at bovada.lv and gives a breakdown of the top contenders.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com