New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NFL Week 9 Daily Fantasy Targets (11/04/16)

    By Frank Brank @realfbra



    We have simulated every Week 9 game 50,000 times. This allows us to rank all players based on their expected fantasy football output in the upcoming game. For salary cap leagues, we have added $/FP to uncover players with the greatest value. Salary values represent the cost per projected fantasy point for default public leagues on DraftKings and FanDuel, two of the top websites that specialize in daily fantasy sports games.

    Check out the Optimal Daily Fantasy Lineups for the week and build Customized Projections and Lineups. You can also use our Next Man Up Tool to remove certain players and resimulate the game to get updated projections.


    Quarterback

    Cash Game



    Pretty simply, Prescott will face a terrible Browns defense this week and his price is too low. He is at leaest $1,000 cheaper than the top tier guys against one of the worst defenses in the league. Dez Bryant came back from injury last week and Prescott looked more willing to throw the ball down the field. His completion percentage was not great, but points are not acquired in daily fantasy for completion percentage. Dak completed a number of deep throws to Dez Bryant and threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for one.

    Despite the Cowboys' offense running the ball successfully, Dak still attempted 39 throws, his highest since Week 1. If he comes anywhere close to that this week, he should have a lot of success. The Browns rank second to last in yards per play (6.4 yards) and yards per attempt passing (8.4 yards).

    Tournament



    Colin Kaepernick is not an attractive option for fantasy players. In his first two starts this season, he's completed 13 of 29 and 16 of 34 pass attempts for a 46% completion rate. We should expect this to increase this week against another terrible Saints defense. Despite the poor performances, Kaepernick has thrown for two touchdowns thus far but a more attractive piece of his game is his rushing ability under Chip Kelly.

    Kaep has attempted 17 rushes in his two starts for 152 yards. He should have a decent chance to break 100 yards rushing this week against the Saints. The Saints haven't faced a quarterback that is willing to run this year, either. They did face Cam Newton and Russell Wilson, but both have been dinged up and much less willing to run the ball themselves.

    The Saints haven't held an offense to under 300 yards all season and have only held three offenses to under 400 yards. If this turns into a typical Saints shootout game, Kaepernick should be an attractive tournament play.


    Running Back

    Cash Game



    With Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles likely missing this week, West becomes a must-own. Nothing will stop Andy Reid's Chiefs from attempting a lot of rushing plays and dump offs to running backs on passing plays. The Chiefs have even signed Bishop Sankey to fill in as a backup. Assuming he's not completely up to speed with the offense, West is going to get a ton of touches.

    There isn't much available on West. He's seemingly an average running back that can catch the ball out of the backfield. He's just impossible to pass up with his price as a starting running back for the Chiefs.

    Tournament



    The Eagles running back usage is about as random as it gets in the NFL. They use three or four guys with different workloads each week. Darren Sproles would strictly be considered to be a tournment play for that reason. One good sign is he has emerged as their best all-around option out of the backfield.

    Sproles rushed the ball 15 times for 86 yards against the Cowboys on Sunday night, both being highs of his season. Carson Wentz also seems unwilling to stretch the field with his arm making Sproles a nice PPR option. He has been targed four times per game this year and has a chance to break a long catch and run with his speed every time he touches it.


    Wide Receiver

    Cash Game



    Emmanuel Sanders has been one of the most under-appreciated wide receivers this year. He's gotten 75 targets in eight games, including ten last week. His lowest number of targets this year has been six and has gotten eight or more in the other seven games. Sanders is priced a second-tier receiver this week partly because he only caught four passes last week. However, he was targeted ten times.

    The Broncos will also face the worst passing defense in the NFL this year. The Raiders have the worst defense in yards per play and yards per attempt passing. Look for the Broncos to attempt a bit more passes than usual and Sanders to get a bulk of those throws his way. With the matchup and Sanders' consistency this year, he's near impossible to pass up.

    Tournament



    Mike Wallace has been the ultimate boom or bust his entire career. He's a big play receiver and has a favorable matchup this week. The Steelers defense doesn't have much to offer to stop small, big, or medium passing plays. With Steve Smith likely out, Mike Wallace becomes the number one option for Joe Flacco.

    Flacco has had an up and down season but has consistently attempted a ton passes each game. Flacco has attempted at least 40 passes in every game since Week 1. In the games since Smith has been out or dinged up, Flacco has thrown towards Mike Wallace nine, eleven, nine, and thirteen times. He'll have a high variance on whether those passes are caught and for how many yards, which makes him a great tournament play.


    Tight End

    Cash Game



    Unlike Wallace, Dennis Pitta is a bit more reliable for the frequent throwing Joe Flacco. Over the last three games, Pitta has gotten 28 targets. Steve Smith being out, a largely targeted receiver for Flacco, also helps Pitta. He may also be pretty low-owned considering he only caught four of ten targets last week. For the season, though, Pitta has caught two-thirds of his targets from Flacco. That trend should continue this week against a shaky Steelers secondary.

    Tournament



    Gary Barnidge hasn't caught a touchdown pass all year. In a microcosm of the Browns' season, he's been disappointing. Nonetheless, Josh McCown seems to love throwing his way. McCown has thrown his five or more times in each of his starts and seven times in each of the last two games. He only caught three balls last week for 42 yards; thus, we'd expect him to be pretty low owned considering there's quite a few top options at tight end with Graham, Olsen, and Rudolph. With the exception of Sean Lee, Barnidge will go up against a set of bad Cowyboys linebackers and should have a good chane to grab his first touchdown of the season this week.

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Comparing Ezekiel Elliott and Eric Dickerson
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 9 (11/03/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including the returns of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays lineup.

    MLB Futures Picks - Who to bet for the World Series
    Each Monday during the 2017 season, we will review free MLB Futures value picks.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com