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    NFL Futures (1/14/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    After 50,000 simulations of the NFL Playoffs we find value in Super Bowl odds. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl and compare that to our projected odds that they win the Lombardi Trophy. For example, Denver is listed at +210 to win the Super Bowl; in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Broncos they would need to win it all 32.3% (which is 100/(100+210)) of the time. We project Denver to win it all 28.5% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +210 odds.

    Note: All against-the-spread picks for the 2013-14 NFL Playoffs are now 6-1-1 (86% ATS). All-time, NFL Playoff picks are 32-9 (78% ATS). For access to all of our Conference Championship picks please visit the shop.
     
    Seattle Seahawks (13-3, 1st seed in the NFC)
    Current odds: +200, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 33.3%
    Seattle wins the Super Bowl 42.1% of the time
     
    We encouraged you to take Seattle at 11/4 before the playoffs began and then again last week when the Seahawks were 5/2 favorites. Even though the Hawks’ odds have dropped there is still value in betting them to win the Super Bowl.
     
    Not only is Seattle our most likely champion but the bookmakers would currently favor them in either potential Super Bowl matchups.
    • Seattle vs. Denver, Seahawks -2.5
    • Seattle vs. New England, Seahawks -6
    Fun Stat
    In the last 14 years only two No. 1 seed from the NFC have won the Super Bowl: 1999-00 St. Louis Rams and 2009-10 New Orleans Saints.
     
    Below are the odds for each team to win the Super Bowl. Plus, odds needed to place a wager and our projected odds for each team.
     
    Team Super Bowl Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Seattle Seahawks +200 33.3% 42.1%
    Denver Broncos +210 32.3% 28.5%
    San Francisco 49ers +275 26.7% 20.7%
    New England Patriots +425 19.0% 8.7%

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