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    NFL Line Movement (01/17/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL Conference Championships including prop bets for the Seahawks, Patriots, 49ers and Broncos. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    It is Conference Championship Weekend in the NFL Playoffs and we are taking a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving all the NFC and AFC Conference Championship games. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Broncos vs. Patriots
     
    Tom Brady has won 10 of 14 matchups all-time against Peyton Manning, that is a win percentage of 71%. It seems fitting then that the public has come in on the Patriots in this game with over 70% of the action on New England. The early line favored Denver by 6.5 points but was quickly bet down to 4.5. Despite all the action on the Patriots, the line has started to shift back toward Denver. This type of movement hints at sharp money being on the Broncos. Denver is currently a 5.5 point favorite.
     
    Total Rushing Yards - LeGarrette Blount (NE)  
    Over/Under:  72.5
     
    Usually a Manning/Brady matchup would be all about the quarterbacks but many believe this contest will be decided by each team’s running game. LeGarrette Blount has been on a tear in the Patriots’ last two contests (189 yards rushing vs. Buffalo and 166 yards rushing vs. Colts). Can Blount continue his dominance? Using our projected boxscore we anticipate Blount to eclipse the line of 72.5 rushing yards.
     
    Seahawks vs. 49ers
     
    The NFC Championship line has held steady all week. The majority of the action has been on San Francisco but the line has stayed at Seattle -3.5. Books appear to be taking a side in this game and unwilling to lower the line to the key number of -3.
     
    Who will have more Rushing Yards in the game?       
    Colin Kaepernick (SF) QB:  -2.5                 
    Russell Wilson (SEA) QB:  +2.5   
     
    This matchup may come down to which young quarterback has the better game. Both signal callers have burnt opposing teams with their legs throughout the season. Wilson has more total rushing yards on the season (539 compared to 524), but Kaepernick has a better yard-per-carry average (5.7). Once again, using our projected boxscore, we like Kaepernick to cover the 2.5 point spread on the rushing total between the two quarterbacks.
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