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    NFL Line Movement (1/10/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL Divisional Round including prop bets for the Seahawks, Patriots, 49ers and Broncos. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    It is the Divisional Round in the NFL Playoffs and we are taking a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving all the Divisional Round teams. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    New Orleans @ Seattle – Saturday 4:35 PM
     
    This line opened Seattle -7.5, it fluttered as high as -9 before settling at -8. The greater line movement has come on the under. Seattle has the best defense in the league and the Saints score significantly fewer points on the road. The total opened at 48.5 but has steadily decreased to a consensus of 46.
     
    Will there be a game winning FG or TD as time expires in any game during the Divisional Playoffs?           
    • Yes:  +300  
    • No:  -500   
    Shayne Graham hit a 32-yard field goal as time expired last week to give New Orleans its first road victory in the playoffs. Phil Dawson connected on a 33-yard field goal as time expired to give San Francisco a 23-20 win over Green Bay. No is listed at -500, the odds imply that there is an 83% chance that there will not be a game winning field goal or touchdown as time expires.
     
    Indianapolis @ New England – Saturday 8:15 PM
     
    The Patriots opened as touchdown favorites. The line has been holding steady though a few books have wavered to -7.5 before being bet back down to -7.
     
    Will any team trailing at half come back to win the game during the Divisional Playoffs?
    • Yes:  -200   
    • No:  +150     
    Three teams (Colts, Saints and Chargers) were all trailing at halftime last week and rallied to win the game. The odds imply that there is a 67% chance of this occurring at least once this weekend.
     
    San Francisco @ Carolina – Sunday 1:05 PM
     
    The 49ers were the only road team favored last week in the Wild Card Round and once again find themselves as the only road favorites in the Divisional Round. San Francisco opened as 2 point favorites but this line has been in a constant state of movement. One explanation for this line movement might be that since 1990 only two teams have been home underdogs in the Divisional Round and both won. The consensus line is San Francisco -1 but don’t be surprised if it keeps bouncing between -2 and pick’em.
     
    Will any player do the "Ric Flair" strut on the field during the game? (Kickoff until final whistle)        
    • Yes:  +500    
    • No:  -1000   
    This is the best prop of the weekend. Ric Flair, professional wrestler, has become entangled in the 49ers/Panthers game. It is all rather silly but anytime The Nature Boy can be involved and there is a possibility of a “WOOOO”, I’m all for it.
     
    San Diego @ Denver – Sunday 4:40 PM
     
    With the Broncos, the No. 1 seed in the AFC, coming off a bye, this line opened Denver -10. Since 1990, the No. 1 seed in the AFC is 20-25-1 against-the-spread. Does that fact have anything to do with the line movement in this game? No. San Diego’s impressive road victory last week has 62% of the wagers coming in on the Chargers. This line has come down to Denver -9.5 with -9 at a few books.
     
    Peyton Manning Prop Bets
    • Total Passing Yards – over/under: 325.5
    • Total Passing Touchdowns – over/under: 3
    We know the answers to these props unlike the ones above, which cannot be answered with our simulations. Based on our projected boxscore we have a slight lean on the over in both props.


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