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    NFL Line Movements (11/15/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Eagles, and Saints. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    With a nearly full slate (Dallas and St. Louis on bye) of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving the Broncos, Eagles, and Saints. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Broncos vs. Chiefs
     
    Kansas City is 9-0 and the only undefeated team left in the NFL. Andy Reid is 13-1 all-time coming off a bye week. Yet, the Chiefs are 8 point dogs on the road in Denver. The game opened with the Broncos favored by 8.5, got bet down to 7.5 before settling at an even 8 points. The Chiefs are the fifth team since 1985 to start 9-0 and be underdogs of more than a touchdown.
     
    Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Regular Season Matchup     
    Denver wins both games:  10/11   
    Kansas City wins both games:  7/1       
    Denver and Kansas City each win a game:  11/10   
     
    Denver is a 76.1% favorite to win this week and in two weeks we would project the Broncos to win 63.5% of the time at Arrowhead. This means there is a 48.3% chance that Denver wins both games. The odds imply that there is a 52.4% chance of this happening leaving no value in betting Denver to win both games. I’ll save you the trouble but there isn’t any value in betting the Chiefs to win both game or for a split. The bookmakers are right on the money with this prop bet.
     
    Eagles vs. Redskins
     
    This game opened with the Eagles favored by a field goal at home over the Redskins. By Thursday there had been nearly even action on both sides but the Eagles had crept up to 3.5 point favorites over their division rivals. This would indicate that sharp money had moved the line. As of writing the Eagles are now 4.5 point favorites.
     
    How many Home wins will the Philadelphia Eagles have in the 2013 Regular Season?
    Over 2.5:  1/1
    Under 2.5:  5/7
     
    The Eagles have lost a franchise-record 10 straight home games. Philadelphia has four games remaining at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Fun tidbit, if the Eagles were to lose every remaining home game, they would still have a 4.7% chance of winning the NFC East. Philly is currently 50.5% likely to win the division.
     
    Saints vs. 49ers
     
    The look ahead line for this game was Saints -2. The 49ers loss at home, plus the Saints blowout of Dallas has New Orleans favored by a field goal now. With 80% of wagers being placed on the Saints the juice has went to -120 which indicates that Vegas is pretty close to adding a hook (0.5 a point) to the Saints.
     
    New Orleans Saints- Total Offensive Yards Week 11 vs. the San Francisco 49ers?
    Over/Under:  410.5
     
    Against Dallas the Saints set an NFL record with 40 first downs and a regular season team-record with 625 total yards. New Orleans averages 463.6 yards at home this season. We recommend taking the under in total yards on this prop bet but it is close.
     
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