New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    NFL Line Movements (11/22/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Jets and Colts. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    With a nearly full slate (Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Seattle on bye) of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving the Broncos, Jets and Colts.
     
    Patriots vs. Broncos
     
    Before the season began this was the only game the Broncos were projected as underdogs. Back in May, the Patriots were 1.5 points favorites. The record setting Denver offense has changed that; the Broncos are now favored by 2.5 points.
     
    Who will Record more Passing Yards Week 12?   
    • Peyton Manning:  -30.5       
    • Tom Brady:  +30.5 
    Peyton is averaging 357 yards per game; Brady averages a full 100 yards fewer (255 yards/game). In our simulations Manning throws for 304 yards compared to Brady’s 262 yards. We would back Peyton and the Denver passing attack even if Welker does not play.
               
    Jets vs. Ravens
     
    The Ravens opened as a field goal favorite in the look ahead lines. A strong offensive performance by Ray Rice (131 yards and a touchdown) and another dismal game from Geno Smith for the Jets has generated action on Baltimore. Nearly 80% of wagers being placed are on the Ravens. The line is currently at Baltimore -4.
     
    Will the Jets win week 12, lose week 13, win week 14, lose week 15, win week 16, lose week 17?
    • Yes:  25/1 
    The Jets have won every other week this season, they are the first team since the NFL/AFL merge to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games. The odds imply that there is nearly a 4% chance of this occurring. We estimate that the Jets have a 1.9% chance of alternating wins the rest of the season, and that would still likely get them into the playoffs.
     
    Cardinals vs. Colts
     
    The Colts are a public team with Andrew Luck at quarterback, yet money has pushed this line from Arizona -1.5 to -2.5. Nearly 75% of wagers being placed are on the Cardinals to cover against the Colts. I’ll take responsibility for this after my FREE Andre Ellington campaign.
     
    Who will end up with more Rushing Yards as a member of the Colts in the 2013 Regular Season?         
    • Trent Richardson:  +100 yards                   
    • Donald Brown:  -100 yards       
    We project Donald Brown to have 373 yards over the Colts’ last six games compared to Trent Richardson’s 183 yards. Brown more than doubles Richardson’s output, T-Rich is only averaging 2.8 yards/carry this season.
     
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 12 (11/25/13)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 11 (11/18/13)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    08/09/2017 Highlight: Football season is slowly approaching and as we use our ResultsFinder tool to look back on previous seasons, we can see that ATS picks in the NFL regular season have topped 56% ATS four times in seven years, and have been profitable in all but one season on the site. NFL Playoff picks are also a stellar 50-25 (67% ATS) in our history.

    In college football, "normal" or better totals are 58% all-time and have been profitable in five of the previous seven years. Meanwhile, our strongest ATS pick each week in college football is 69-40 (63% ATS) all-time. With college football season win totals being posted this week, we can also note that last season, playable win total picks in went 28-19 (60% O/U) to turn a profit of $899 for a normal $50 player using our play value recommendations.

    MLB picks have been on a tear for upwards of a month, with our models generating $742 in total profits on ML and RL picks since the beginning of July. "Normal" or better ML and RL plays in that same stretch are a commendable 20-11 (64.5%), producing $331 in profits for an average $50 bettor.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Fantasy Sports Partnership
    Prediction Machine has partnered up with Fantasy Guru Elite. Read the blog from our Business Manager, Rob Pizzola, to learn more.

    NFL Preview - In-Depth Analysis
    In the most likely Super Bowl, the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks. Check out in-depth analysis for every team in the league.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com