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    NFL Line Movements (12/6/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Saints. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    With a full slate of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Saints. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Saints vs. Panthers
     
    The look ahead line for this game had the Saints favored by 4 points. After getting demolished by the Seahawks on Monday night, New Orleans was favored by 3.5 points. The majority (+60%) of wagers have been on the Panthers. The line continues to move south with the Saints now just a field goal favorite at home.
     
    New Orleans Saints Total Offensive Yards Week 14           
    Over/Under:  350.5
     
    Carolina is second in the league allowing an average of 289.8 yards per game. The Saints are sixth in the league pilling up 396.1 yards per game of offense. Something has to give, does the Panthers defense or Saints offense win out? We are inclined to think that this prop goes over.

    Chiefs vs. Redskins

    This line opened at Kansas City -2.5, climbed as high as -3.5, before settling with the Chiefs favored by a field goal. Washington is playing for pride after losing five of their last six while the Chiefs are playing for the fifth seed in the AFC after dropping three in a row.
     
    Will the Chiefs end the Season on a 7 game losing streak?           
    Yes:  20/1     
     
    The odds imply a 5.0% chance of this occurring. I would be skeptical as we predict the Chiefs to win at least two more games the rest of the season.
     
    Bears vs. Cowboys

    Chicago opened as a 1.5 point favorite but Dallas money has bought this line down to a pick’em. Chicago has taken the last two matchups between these teams but it’s the Cowboys who are moving toward the playoffs, winning three of their last four. The Bears have lost three of their last four, in part because they have been unable to stop opposing backs.
     
    How many Rushing yards will the Bears allow Week 14 vs. the Cowboys?
    Over/Under:  115.5
     
    The Bears have allowed 504 yards rushing the last two games. In our Power Rankings, Chicago is 30th in defensive rushing efficiency. Yet, we like the under on this prop bet.
     
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