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    NFL Line Movements (12/13/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Redskins, Patriots, Browns. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    With a full slate of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving the Redskins, Patriots, and Browns. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Falcons vs. Redskins
     
    The NFL changes quickly, a year ago both of these teams were division winners now they share the worst record in the NFC. The Falcons opened as 4 point favorites but when it was announced that Kirk Cousins would be the starter, the line quickly moved to Atlanta -7.  
     
    Kirk Cousins’ Prop Bets
     
    Total Passing Yards Week 15 vs. Atlanta    
    • Over/Under:  240.5
    Total TD Passes Week 15 vs. Atlanta        
    • Over/Under:  1.5
    Total Interceptions Week 15 vs. Atlanta  
    • Over/Under: 0.5
    In five games, Cousins has completed 61.6% of his passes for four touchdowns and five interceptions. According to our projected boxscore, we would have a slight lean on the over for all of these prop bets.
     
    Patriots vs. Dolphins
     
    Both teams have a lot to play for in this divisional matchup. With a win the Patriots can clinch the AFC East, which would give New England the division title for the fifth straight year. They also control their own destiny for homefield advantage with the Broncos loss Thursday night. For the Dolphins, they badly need a win as they are tied with Baltimore for the AFC’s second wild card. The Patriots opened as field goal favorites on the road but the line keeps bouncing back and forth between New England -1 and a pick’em.
     
    Will the Patriots trail at any point in the second half vs. the Dolphins and come back to win the game?
    • Yes:  EVEN  
    • No:  -140    
    New England has won its last three games but the Patriots have not been dominant. The Pats overcame a 24 point deficit to beat Denver, rallied from 10 down against Houston and needed two scores and an onside kick in the last minute of the game against Cleveland last week.
     
    Bears vs. Browns
     
    The look ahead line favored Cleveland by 2.5 points. A strong showing on Monday Night Football and the return of Jay Cutler has made the Bears the favorites. With 85% of the wagers being placed on Chicago the Browns are now 1 point dogs.
     
    Who will finish the Season with more Receiving Yards?
    • Calvin Johnson (DET) WR:  -140    
    • Josh Gordon (CLE) WR:  EVEN  
    Cleveland has dropped their last four games but during that stretch Josh Gordon has 36 catches for 774 yards and five touchdowns. Gordon’s 1,400 yards leads the NFL in receiving. Calvin Johnson is second, just behind Gordon with 1,351 yards. Using our Rest of Season fantasy projections we would take Gordon at even money to finish with the most receiving yards in the NFL. Interesting note: Gordon has played one less game than Megatron this year. Gordon missed the first two games due to suspension and Johnson missed one game due to injury.
     
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