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    NFL Line Movements (12/13/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Chiefs, Lions, and Cowboys. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    With a full slate of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving the Chiefs, Lions and Cowboys. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    Cowboys vs. Redskins
     
    Dallas has lost consecutive games against backup quarterbacks to put their playoff hopes in jeopardy. The Cowboys will get another crack at beating a second string signal caller Sunday when they face Kirk Cousins and Washington. Dallas was favored by 3.5 points but the line has been bet to the Boy’s by a field goal.
     
    If the Redskins trade Kirk Cousins before the 2014 NFL Draft is over will they get a 1st round pick for him?    
    Yes:  +200    
    No:  -300    
     
    Cousins passed for 381 yards and three touchdowns last Sunday against Atlanta helping to improve his value. It is impossible to say for sure if Washington will trade Cousins but without a first round draft pick of their own, it could be prudent for the Redskins to sell high on the second year player. If Cleveland can get a first round pick for Trent Richardson then Washington can surely get the same for a quarterback.

    Chiefs vs. Colts
     
    Kansas City and Indianapolis are both already in the playoffs but are now jockeying for position. The Chiefs opened as 6.5 point favorites at home; a seven popped up in the middle of the week but was quickly bet off the board. The interesting line movement has been on the over/under. With 95% of wagers being placed on the over the line has moved from 41.5 points to 45 points.
     
    Total Points scored by all teams in Week 16?
    Over/Under:  725.5
     
    Last Sunday was the highest scoring week in NFL History with a total of 763 points scored. Kansas City did its part to achieve that record by racking up 56 points against Oakland. In the last two weeks Kansas City has scored 101 points in two road wins. We would take the under on this prop bet as we project a total of 707.3 points to be scored on average.
     
    Lions vs. Giants
     
    Detroit desperately needs a win after relinquishing control of the NFC North to Chicago last week. The Lions are highly motivated whereas the Giants have been out of contention for a while. Yet, Detroit opened as 9.5 point favorites and the line has been bet down. I guess there is not a lot of faith in a Detroit team that has dropped four of its last five games.
     
    Eli Manning - Total Interceptions thrown in the Regular Season?
    Over/Under:  28
     
    The Lions have a 21% chance of making the playoffs, down from 68% just two weeks ago. An interception throwing quarterback will cure what ails you. Detroit will face Eli Manning Sunday after one of his worst performances as a pro that included tossing five interceptions. Manning has thrown an NFL high 25 picks this season.
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