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    NFL Line Movements (09/11/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Dolphins, Giants and Texans. Prop bets courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    Week 1 was full of upsets, comebacks and enough underdogs covering to make your head spin. Seconds please!

    With a full slate of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today.

    Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Dolphins, Giants and Texans.

    Bills vs. Dolphins

    The Patriots are favored to win the AFC East but the Dolphins, Jets and Bills currently lead the division. Which team will get an early leg up on its division foe? The betting public doesn't know. This game opened with Buffalo favored by 1 point before money made Miami the gambler's choice, the game is currently at a pick'em but the majority (over 75%) of the money is backing Ryan Tannehill on the road.

    How many games will at least 1 team score 30 or more points in Week 2?
    Over/Under: 6.5

    Nine teams scored over 30 points last week including the Dolphins. New Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor has implemented some of the Eagles up-tempo offense; Miami scored 23 second half points against the Patriots last week.

    Only three teams are projected to score more than 30 points this week, but seven teams on average score 30 or more points or are within a field goal of topping 30 points scored.

    Cardinals vs. Giants

    The Cardinals won their showdown on Monday Night Football, while the Giants looked less than impressive in their nationally televised game. Before Eli Manning got on pace to throw 32 interceptions this season, Big Blue opened as a two point home favorite. The debacle against the Lions and a comeback win from Arizona has the Cardinals as 2.5 point favorites on the road.

    As bad as Eli Manning looked, the Giants are 40-30-1 (57% against-the-spread) as underdogs since Peyton's little brother became the starter.

    How many Underdogs will win outright in Week 2?
    Over/Under: 4.5

    Last week, seven underdogs won outright. Bill Simmons told all of us that this was the Year of the Dog. But we aren't convinced the dogs will be barking this week as just three games are projected to be decided by 3 points or less.

    Texans vs. Raiders

    Houston snapped a 14-game losing streak with its win over Washington in Week 1. The victory came at a cost as Jadeveon Clowney suffered a knee injury that will sideline him for four to six weeks. Even without the top overall pick from the draft the Texans have continued to receive plenty of support from the public as the line opened at a pick'em but has been bet up to Houston -3 on the road.

    Houston is looking to end a seven-game road losing streak Sunday against Oakland.

    Will any team that finished last in their Division in 2013 win their Division this Season?
    Yes: EVEN
    No: -140

    A team has gone from worst to first in their division in each of the last 11 seasons. We picked the Texans to be a surprise playoff team before the season started. Houston is currently projected to finish second behind Indianapolis in the AFC South, but a win over Oakland and a Colts loss at home on Monday Night could change the landscape of the division.


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