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    NFL Line Movements (10/11/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Cowboys, and Texans. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    With a nearly full slate (Atlanta and Miami on bye) of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Broncos, Cowboys, and Texans. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Broncos vs. Jaguars

    For a game where the outcome is all but certain, Denver vs. Jacksonville has generated a lot of press due to its record point spread. The game opened with Denver being a 28 point favorite but was quickly bet down to 26.5 as sharp bettors are willing to take nearly any team in the NFL getting four touchdowns. As the season progressed, Denver winning and Jacksonville losing plus the fact that Denver scored as many points in Week 5 as Jacksonville has all season long, the large spread did not come as a surprise to many. However, before the season began, Denver was only listed as a two-touchdown favorite.
     
    With all the interest generated from the point spread it will not come as a surprise that there are a number of prop bets associated with this game. As per usual, here is one of my favorites.
     
    How many of the following single season records will Peyton Manning break during the 2013 Season - Passing Yards/TD Passes/QB Rating/Completion %?
    Over/Under:  1.5
     
    Peyton is currently on pace to break all four records. The record for passing yards is 5,476 yards set by Drew Brees in 2011 and Manning is on pace for 6,029 yards. The record for touchdown passes is 50 by Tom Brady in 2007 and Manning is on pace for 64. The record for QB Rating is 122.5 by Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and Manning’s currently at 136.4. The record for Completion % is 71.2 by Drew Brees in 2011 and Manning’s currently at 75.8.
     
    This game could be pivotal for Manning if he is going to break any of these records. We have suggested that it wouldn’t be crazy for Denver to bench Peyton in this game altogether. It will be interesting to see how long Peyton plays and the statistics he is able to accrue in abbreviated playing time.
     
    Cowboys vs. Redskins

    The Cowboys opened as 4.5 point favorites but the offensive prowess shown in the Denver game has money coming in on America’s Team. The current consensus line is Dallas -5.5, but I’m seeing 6 and 6.5 at some books. Nearly 80% of all wagers being placed are on The Boys to cover.
     
    From week to week, the public overvalues recent performance. Romo’s record day is driving some of the action on Dallas but is it unfounded?
     
    Will another QB throw for 500 or more Yards between Week 6-17 in the 2013 Regular Season?          
    Yes:  -200    
    No:  +150    
     
    Tony Romo became the first Cowboys quarterback to throw for 500 yards in a single game. Romo joins an illustrious group as just the 15th player in NFL history to pass for 500 yards. Romo is the first player this season but the feat is occurring more often. In 21 years from 1990 to 2010, only five players joined the club but from 2011 on, five more have topped 500 yards with three doing so last season.
     
    We don’t expect Romo to do it again this week but we are projecting him to throw for the most yards this week. All of our Fantasy Football content is FREE this week!
     
    Texans vs. Rams

    Burned jerseys, ‘Schaub’ hamburgers, and fans storming or not storming your house are the new normal for Matt Schaub. A historic streak of pick-sixes has put the quarterbacks’ starting spot in jeopardy.  Yet, with all the negative publicity, bettors are still backing the Texans at nearly 90%. Maybe that has more to do with the competition, the Rams are the worst 2-3 team in the NFL, least likely to make the playoffs. This game opened with the Texans favored by 7 points but the action on Houston has forced Vegas off the key number to Texans -7.5.
     
    Will Matt Schaub throw a Pick 6 Week 6?         
    Yes:  +400    
    No:  -700   
     
    Houston fans take comfort in knowing that Schaub is not alone. Sure, he has thrown his fourth pick-six in four weeks but some other notable quarterbacks have had bad stretches too. Both Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger (during a Super Bowl season) had three-game stretches where they had a pick-six in consecutive games. 
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