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    NFL Line Movements (10/17/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Eagles, and Giants. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    With a nearly full slate (Oakland and New Orleans are on bye) of NFL games this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Broncos, Eagles, and Giants. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Colts vs. Broncos
     
    The undefeated Denver Broncos, led by former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, will head to Indianapolis this week for Sunday Night Football. This game opened Sunday morning with Denver favored by 7.5 points. The game was bet down to as as low as -5.5 on Sunday night after Denver failed to cover one of the largest point spreads in history against the Jaguars. Money came back in on Denver Monday when the Colts managed just 9 points on the road in a loss to the Chargers. Currently Denver is favored by 6.5 points and is holding steady at that line.
     
    Here are some of my favorite prop bets for this game.
     
    How many times will Peyton Manning be shown in a Colts uniform during the live broadcast of the Colts/Broncos game in Week 7?
    Over/Under:  4½
     
    It is not hard to imagine Peyton appearing in a Colts uniform, especially since the Colts are planning a tribute to the franchise’s greatest player. Also, for fans it is difficult not to reflect on the good times and wonder what the team would look like if Manning were still a Colt.
     
    Will Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas all record 1,000 or more Receiving Yards in the 2013 Regular Season?
    Yes:  5/1
    No:  1/10
     
    All four players are currently on pace to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards. However, using our rest of season fantasy projections we would recommend betting no. In our projections Demaryius Thomas (1,303.7 yards) and Eric Decker (1,215.7 yards) break 1,000 yards while Wes Welker (992.6 yards) and Julius Thomas (944.9 yards) do not.
     
    Eagles vs. Cowboys
     
    Dallas opened as a 2 point favorite before Sunday’s games. That line seemed appropriate given how well Dallas had played against Denver and the question marks the Eagles had at quarterback. Injuries for Dallas, DeMarco Murray and DeMarcus Ware, plus a strong performance by Nick Foles, a career-high three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown, has swung this line to Philadelphia -3. It would be surprising to see this line move off a key number but 95% of wagers are on Dallas.
     
    Nick Foles looked like Philadelphia’s quarterback of the future last week but things change quickly in the NFL. See Tony Romo’s performance against the Broncos (506 yards & 5 TDs) and then against the Redskins (170 yards & 1 TD).
     
    Who will start more games for the Eagles between Week 7-17 of the 2013 Regular Season?          
    Michael Vick:  2/1     
    Nick Foles:  1/3
     
    This is going to be a fluid situation where weekly performance dictates who the starter will be. Heck, both quarterbacks might play in the same game.
     
    Giants vs. Vikings
     
    The Giants are 0-6, yet they are favored to win. Why? Minnesota is going to start Josh Freeman, their third different starter in four weeks. The Vikings also got destroyed by Carolina last week, there isn’t a lot of public confidence in Minnesota right now. This game opened as a pick’em but was quickly bet up to Giants -3 (the same line posted before the season began). The Giants got more love from gamblers and the line has climbed past the key number to New York -3.5.
     
    Josh Freeman - Total TD Passes Week 7     
    Over 1.5:  6/5
    Under 1.5:  2/3
     
    Vikings’ quarterbacks have only thrown for two touchdowns once in a game this season. That helps explain why the under is favored and why Minnesota is in the cellar of the NFC North. 
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