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    NFL Line Movements (10/25/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the 49ers, Patriots, and Chiefs. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    It's week 8 in the NFL season and we'll take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the 49ers, Patriots, and Chiefs. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    49ers vs. Jaguars
     
    This game opened as low as San Francisco -13.5 points but was quickly bet up to the 49ers favored by 16.5 points. The movement is partially related to the success the 49ers have had after losing two games in a row. San Francisco has beat up its last four opponents by more than 20 points on average. It also helps that the Jaguars, at 1-6, have the worst record against-the-spread in the league (along with Tampa Bay and Houston). 
     
    Jacksonville can't win games straight-up or against-the-spread but will that change as the field is truly neutral in London England.
     
    Will the Jacksonville Jaguars go 0-16 in the 2013 Regular Season?
    Yes:  +200    
    No:  -300    
     
    The odds imply a 33% chance that the Jags could lose all their games. We gave Jacksonville just a 7.4% chance of going defeated last week; we still project them to win nearly two games before the season is over.
     
    Patriots vs. Dolphins
     
    This line opened Sunday morning with the Patriots as 4.5 point favorites over the Dolphins. That line did not last long as it was quickly bet up to New England minus a touchdown. The line has since bounced back and forth between 6.5 and 7 points and seems to have settled in the last few days with the Patriots -6.5 points. It does not come as a surprise to us that the line settled below a touchdown as New England has only won one game all season by more than a touchdown.  But could Gronk change all of that?
     
    Will Rob Gronkowski play in every game for the Patriots between Week 8-17?        
    Yes:  -150    
    No:  +110    
     
    We can’t say for sure whether or not Gronk will play the rest of the season but we can project what his numbers would look like if he did. Based on our Rest of Season Fantasy projections, Gronkowski (after this week) would have 480 yards receiving and four touchdowns.
     
    Chiefs vs. Browns
     
    This game opened with the Chiefs at home favored by a touchdown but was bet off the key number to Kansas City -7.5. If you saw a 7-0 start coming for Kansas City you probably jumped all over Cantor’s preseason game line of Chiefs -2.5 back in May. Kansas City is riding an elite defense and hoping one player can carry their offense.
     
    Will Jamaal Charles record 100 or more combined Rushing and Receiving Yards and score a TD Week 8 vs. Cleveland?
    Yes:  -140     
    No:  EVEN  
     
    Charles’ stat line in each game this season includes 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Charles needs two more games like that to tie O.J. Simpson’s record of 9 consecutive games with 100+ yards and a touchdown. There is a reason this prop is favored to hit, we project Charles to have 119 yards (rushing and receiving) as well as .8 and .2 rushing and receiving TDs respectively.
     
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