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    NFL Line Movement (1/3/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Line movements for the NFL Wild Card Weekend including prop bets for the Eagles, Packers and 49ers. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    It is Wild Card Weekend and we are taking a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today. Plus fun prop bets for the NFL involving all the Wild Card teams. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Kansas City @ Indianapolis – Saturday 4:35 PM
     
    This line opened Colts -2.5 with action evenly split on both sides. On Thursday afternoon the line started dancing. The consensus is Indy -1.5 but I’m seeing as low as -1 at the MGM Mirage and as high as -2.5 offshore.
     
    How many Wild Card teams will win this weekend?
    • Over 1.5:  -150
    • Under 1.5:  +110 
    We are predicting one Wild Card team to win but all four have at least a 35% chance of advancing to the Divisional Round. 
     
    New Orleans @ Philadelphia – Saturday 8:10 PM
     
    The Eagles, like the Colts, opened as 2.5 point favorites. The action on this game is 50/50 and the line has not moved all week. The interesting line movement involves the total. The over/under opened at 55, nearly a touchdown higher than the other Wild Card games. This is not surprising with two of the league’s most explosive offensives. However, the action has been on the under and the total is now at 53.5.
     
    Will a Wild Card team win the Super Bowl?  
    • Yes:  +400       
    • No:  -700     
    If you bet yes the odds imply that there is a 20% chance of a Wild Card team winning the Super Bowl. When you consult our NFL Playoff Odds you find that the combined chance of the Wild Cards winning the Super Bowl is just 14.1%.
     
    San Diego @ Cincinnati – Sunday 1:05 PM
     
    Who Dey opened as touchdown favorites over the Chargers. Action has favored San Diego and 6.5 has popped up occasionally throughout the week only for the line to be bought back to Cincinnati -7. The consensus is currently Bengals -6.5. If you want to back Cincy lay the points now before the 6.5 is off the board. If you like the Chargers wait for the line to go back up.
     
    Who will record the most Receiving Yards? 
    • A.J. Green (CIN) WR:  4/1
    • Jordy Nelson (GB) WR:  5/1
    • Randall Cobb (GB) WR:  6/1
    • Marques Colston (NO) WR:  6/1
    • Jimmy Graham (NO) TE:  6/1
    • DeSean Jackson (PHI) WR:  6/1
    • Anquan Boldin (SF) WR:  9/1
    • T.Y. Hilton (IND) WR:  9/1
    • Michael Crabtree (SF) WR:  15/1
    • Dwayne Bowe (KC) WR:  15/1
    A.J. Green is one of the best receivers in the league and will get to face one of the league’s worst pass defenses. It is no wonder he is the favorite and we concur. Green is projected to have 88.7 yards receiving, the next closest is Graham with 81.7 yards receiving.
     
    San Francisco @ Green Bay – Sunday 4:40 PM
     
    The 49ers opened as the only road favorites in Wild Card Weekend. The consensus line was San Francisco -2.5 points over Green Bay. Even with Aaron Rodgers back, 62% of the action (the most of any game) has been on the 49ers. The line continues to bounce back and forth between San Francisco -2.5 and -3. There has been steady action on the under, it opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 46.5.
     
    “It seems that every year the last few weeks leading up to the playoffs, we see an influx of money on a trendy team, a team that is usually coming in hot, and we saw that with the Packers who a few weeks ago were at 50-1 and are now all the way down to 14-1. The Packers are right now a big liability for the book and after taking a beating the last two years on Super Bowl Future odds with the Giants and Ravens, I am hoping the third time is not a charm. Aside from Green Bay, Philadelphia has seen some money at 16-1 while a team like New Orleans at an interesting 22-1 are not being touched.”

    -Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager, Bovada.lv
     
    Bovada.lv might have liability with Green Bay on futures bets but we would not recommend backing the Packers. Get your FREE NFL Futures selections including value in three teams to win the Super Bowl and two teams to win their conference.
     
     
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