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    Win Total Performance (05/27/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Which NFL teams consistently outperform or underperform Las Vegas' season win totals?



    Las Vegas has released its 2014 NFL season win totals. This wagering opportunity is an expectation for how teams will perform in the fall. How have teams done compared to their season win totals? We gathered data for the last five seasons to see which teams have exceeded or fell short of their season win totals.

    Highlights
    • No team has exceeded its expectations in each of the last five years, just as no team's win total has went under five straight years.
    • The Broncos, 49ers, and Saints have a 4-1 record on the over. A surprise team, Cincinnati, also has gone over their season win total in four of the last five years.
    • The worst team: the Browns have failed to exceed expectations each season. The team's best result was a push in 2012 with five wins.
    • Only thirteen teams have a winning record on the over in the last five years. This speaks to bookmakers shading the over to take advantage of fans' preseason optimism.
    • The Giants are the only team in the last five years to win a Super Bowl and fail to have a positive over record. The G-Men won the 2011-12 Super Bowl but failed to surpass their win total (9.5) that season.
    Season win total records, results are for the over, reverse for the under record.

    Team Over Record
    Arizona Cardinals 3-2
    Atlanta Falcons 3-2
    Baltimore Ravens 3-1-1
    Buffalo Bills 1-4
    Carolina Panthers 2-3
    Chicago Bears 2-3
    Cincinnati Bengals 4-1
    Cleveland Browns 0-4-1
    Dallas Cowboys 1-4
    Denver Broncos 4-1
    Detroit Lions 2-3
    Green Bay Packers 3-2
    Houston Texans 2-2-1
    Indianapolis Colts 3-2
    Jackson Jaguars 1-4
    Kansas City Chiefs 2-3
    Miami Dolphins 0-2-3
    Minnesota Vikings 2-3
    New England Patriots 3-1-1
    New Orleans Saints 4-1
    New York Giants 1-3-1
    New York Jets 3-2
    Oakland Raiders 2-3
    Philadelphia Eagles 3-2
    Pittsburgh Steelers 2-3
    San Diego Chargers 2-3
    San Francisco 49ers 4-1
    Seattle Seahawks 3-2
    St. Louis Rams 2-3
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-3
    Tennessee Titans 2-3
    Washington Redskins 1-4

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