DFS Football Value Plays – Week 5
With Week 5 of the NFL season upon us, let's take a look at who sets up to have the most value based on their salary in daily fantasy for DraftKings and FanDuel. With injuries opening up expanded roles for certain players, and favorable matchups starting to be determined after four weeks of action, we have a solid list of value plays this week. Value plays are centered around players who are below the average salary cost for their position and will produce the most points per dollar spent. Below are a list of some highlighted players on both platforms, but to see a full ranking of players and their value this week, visit our Optimizer
tool for full control over your lineup.
Each player is listed with their salary and projected points for the week.
Hoyer makes our list for the second straight week as the replacement QB for the Bears. In the two games he's started thus far for Chicago, Hoyer has surpassed 300 yards passing and thrown two touchdowns in each one. Hoyer will face the Colts this Sunday in Indianapolis, where the Colts have allowed 666 yards passing in two games this season. The Colts have only allowed five passing touchdowns through four games, but with Hoyer having Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller to throw to in the red zone, I like his chances to throw at least a couple touchdowns while racking up solid yardage against a banged up Colts secondary.
Tannehill enters Week 5 as our second rated value play at the quarterback position. After a rough week last week in Cincinnati, Tannehill returns to Miami to face the Titans after nine days of preparation. Tennessee has been stingy against the pass so far this season, but Tannehill will likely get plenty of opportunities to throw the ball. Last week, the highest amount of carries by a running back was six by Jay Ajayi, and the week before that, which was an overtime game against the Browns, Kenyan Drake led the backfield with nine carries. The Dolphins have avoided running the ball for years, so I expect Tannehill to get plenty of action this week against the Titans. As a guy who has already surpassed 300 yards twice this year, he's someone who can provide great value this weekend.
The key to Siemian being a value play this week is his health. He left last weekend's game with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, and is still questionable to play this week. If he does play, he has a matchup with the defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, as opposing QBs are averaging 28.31 DraftKings points per game against the Falcons. Atlanta surrendered at least three passing touchdowns in all of their games this year, and at least 280 yards passing yards to go along with those touchdowns. If Siemian starts, he is a great value play this weekend against the league's worst passing defense.
If Siemian does not start, Paxton Lynch is an interesting option at $5,200 as well this week. According to our Next Man Up
tool, Lynch would be projected 16.9 points if he started on Sunday. He would be a riskier play than Siemian, as we've only seen him attempt 24 passes, but against the league's worst passing defense, Lynch might be worth a look if Siemian can't go.
After the news broke yesterday that Latavius Murray is doubtful for this Sunday, Washington shot all the way up to the number one spot on our value play list. In his opportunities this year, Washington has performed well, averaging 6.4 yards a carry over 23 attempts, and he's also caught six balls on the year for 37 yards. The Raiders also have the luxury of playing San Diego this weekend, who have allowed the second most DraftKings points to opposing running backs this year. Washington will split carries with Jalen Richard this weekend, but will likely command the majority of the touches. Look for the rookie to take advantage of his opportunity this weekend and perform well against the Chargers.
As the feature back last week, McKinnon had solid production posting 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. He'll face a Texans team this weekend that has allowed at least 100 yards and two touchdowns to opposing RBs in their last two weeks. The Texans have been stingy with their passing defense, so the Vikings will likely try to exploit their weakness on the ground. At only $4,000, McKinnon finds himself in line for another big week, which means he would make a great value play for your lineup this week.
After making our list last week and only posting one catch for four yards, Humphries finds his way back as the top value play for Week 5. With a DraftKings minimum salary of $3,000, Humphries' 11.8 projected points gives him our best $/point of the week at $254/pt. Excluding last week, he saw 20 targets in the two games before, and we expect him to receive some more this weekend against the Panthers who just allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 500 yards and Julio Jones to catch 300 of those yards. Humphries is the ultimate cheap throw-in this weekend with his minimum salary, so if you stack your lineup with other high profile names, look towards Humphries to round out your lineup.
These two Rams receivers both come into Sunday with their lowest salaries of the year on DraftKings. They face a Bills defense who, before last week's game against Jacoby Brissett, had allowed the second most points to opposing wide receivers on DraftKings. Britt has been the more consistent receiver for LA thus far, catching at least four balls in every game and scoring at least 10.7 DraftKings points in three of those four. Austin comes into this weekend with a more volatile start, with a minimum of two catches and maximum of five. However, Austin accounted for 21.4 DraftKings points in Week 3 against the Buccaneers. With their low salary this week, both receivers provide good value against a secondary that has been suspect in three of their first four games.
After picking a Bear for every position on my list last week, Royal somehow slipped through the cracks, and much to my dismay, posted his best fantasy week since 2014. So here I am, making up for my oversight and putting him on my list this week. Royal caught all seven of his targets last week for 111 yards and a touchdown, proving to be one of Brian Hoyer's favorite targets. Royal enters Week 5 as the Bears leading fantasy wide receiver. With the news of Kevin White heading to the IR, Royal is in line to get even more looks this week against a Colts defense who allowed two passing touchdowns to opposing wide receivers last weekend. With Royal and Alshon Jeffery being the only Chicago receivers to enter the week with more than six catches on the year, I like Royal's upside this weekend for only $4,200.
Brate makes the value play list this week after putting up two solid weeks in a row for Tampa Bay. Brate has hauled in 10 of his 18 targets the past two weeks, and last week racked up 67 yards on his five catches. The Buccaneers head to Carolina to face a defense that has allowed the sixth most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends, including four touchdowns over the past three weeks. With Brate being established as one of Jameis Winston's favorite targets over the middle, look for him to continue his production this weekend.
Griffin enters Week 5 against Minnesota with the minimum salary for a tight end on DraftKings. Over the past two weeks, Griffin has been targeted by Brock Osweiler 15 times, catching 11 of those targets for 106 yards. He's been a nice safety net for Osweiler, and against a Vikings team that has shut down opposing wide receivers to this point, Griffin will likely get plenty of looks as the safety net again this weekend.
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After a dazzling Week 1 in which he scored two touchdowns, Riddick has rattled off three disappointing weeks in a row. However, Riddick will now enter this week with another Lions' running back likely to be sidelined in Dwayne Washington. Riddick has only averaged 3.1 yards per carry thus far, but does have 20 catches for 157 yards through four weeks. Riddick is in line to get a vast majority of the looks in the backfield this weekend, so if he can get anything going on the ground against Philadelphia, his pass catching will be a great bonus for fantasy scoring and will make him a great value play this Sunday.
Crabtree comes in priced a little higher than our normal value plays, but is the cheapest out of the top six on our WR list sorted by $/point. Crabtree enters Week 5 against the Chargers after posting 30.3 FanDuel points last week against the Ravens. Over his last two weeks, Crabtree has been targeted 23 times by Derek Carr, catching 15 of those targets for 190 yards and three touchdowns. At a relatively low price of $6,900, Crabtree is capable of posting another huge week against a Chargers defense that has allowed three touchdowns in two games to opposing wide receivers on the road this year.
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Steve Smith Sr. has once again emerged as the top target for the Ravens offense in the last couple weeks. In Weeks 3 and 4, Smith was targeted a total of 22 times, catching 16 for 197 yards and a score. Smith seems to be completely healthy coming off of his achilles injury, as he played a season high 73 snaps against the Raiders last week. The Ravens will face the Washington Redskins in Baltimore this weekend, which is good news for Smith as the Redskins have allowed the fourth most points to opposing wide receivers this year. Look for Smith to continue his hot streak this weekend at home.
After catching a touchdown pass in his third consecutive game last week, Rudolph's salary actually decreased this week from $5,600. Rudolph is averaging 8.3 targets and 55.3 yards per game this year, and has scored in three out of the four Vikings' games thus far. Houston has fared well against tight ends so far this season, but Rudolph seems like a player Sam Bradford likes to target often, especially in the red zone. In fact, Rudolph has received 41.7% of the Vikings' red zone targets through four games. Therefore, I still like his chances to produce against a tough Houston passing defense.
Miller finds his way onto the list for the second consecutive week. So far through two games with Brian Hoyer at quarterback, Miller has caught 11 passes on 12 targets for 109 yards and three touchdowns. Also, over the last three weeks, only Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, and Kyle Rudolph have scored more FanDuel points than Zach Miller. The Bears head to Indy to face the Colts, who have been middle of the road among NFL teams against tight ends this year, but with the injury to Kevin White, I imagine Miller is in line to see even more targets than usual this week. Look for him to have another solid outing and to make it three straight games with a touchdown.