New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    Will they, or won't they? (03/03/16)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Will they, or won't they? Odds to make or miss the 2016 NBA Playoffs.

    With just over a month to go in the regular season, we look at the teams on the NBA Playoff bubble. Utilizing our Playoff Probabilities, we look for value in the each fringe team to make or miss the playoffs.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to make the NBA Playoffs and compare that to our projected odds to reach the postseason. For example, Detroit is listed at -240 to make the playoffs, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Pistons they would need to reach the postseason 70.6% (which is 240/(100+240)) of the time. We project Detroit to reach the playoffs 62.5% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at -240 odds.

    Utah Jazz
    Will Make Playoffs: -110
    Implied Chance: 52.4%
    Projected Chance: 68.1%

    The Jazz are currently on the outside looking in. Utah is four games under .500 and 1.5 games behind Houston for the 8th seed in the West thanks in part to a four game losing streak. It has been a rough week for Utah but there is reason to be hopeful. The Jazz are 10th in our Power Rankings and top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Injuries have been a problem all year but this team is finally getting healthy. With more than 20 games to play there is plenty of time for Utah to right the ship and sail into the playoffs.

    Chicago Bulls
    Will Make Playoffs: -130
    Implied Chance: 56.5%
    Projected Chance: 61.1%

    It has been all downhill in the Windy City since the New Year. When the calendar flipped the Bulls held the 4th seed in the East. Now Chicago has lost four in a row and nine of their last 12 games. Like with the Jazz, injuries have played a key role in the downturn. Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah and Nikola Mirotic have missed significant time. Despite all that has gone wrong, the Bulls are still just half a game out of the final playoff spot in the East. With a little injury luck and some better play, what looks like an embarrassing season can end in a playoff run.

    Additional teams with value to make the playoffs: Charlotte Bobcats and Dallas Mavericks.

    Houston Rockets
    Will Miss Playoffs: +240
    Implied Chance: 29.4%
    Projected Chance: 51.7%

    Scoring has never been an issue in Houston. James Harden is second in the Association in points per game (28.7), but like the runner-up in last year's MVP race, defense is not the team's strong suit. The Rockets are a below-average team that rank 25th in defensive efficiency allowing the fifth most points per game, just ahead of the eight-win 76ers. Houston is the only team currently in the playoffs that we project to miss.

    Additional teams with value to miss the playoffs: Detroit Pistons

    2016 NBA Playoff Odds

    Team Make Playoffs Miss Playoffs Playoff Probability
    Charlotte Bobcats -600 +400 87.9%
    Chicago Bulls -130 Even 61.1%
    Dallas Mavericks -600 +400 87.3%
    Detroit Pistons -240 +200 62.5%
    Houston Rockets -300 +240 48.3%
    Utah Jazz -110 -110 68.1%
    Washington Wizards +400 -600 16.7%

    Print This Article
    Bargain Point Guards (03/09/16)
    Players to Target (03/02/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    08/09/2017 Highlight: MLB picks have been on a tear for upwards of a month, with our models generating $742 in total profits on ML and RL picks since the beginning of July. "Normal" or better ML and RL plays in that same stretch are a commendable 20-11 (64.5%), producing $331 in profits for an average $50 bettor.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    Fantasy Sports Partnership
    Prediction Machine has partnered up with Fantasy Guru Elite. Read the blog from our Business Manager, Rob Pizzola, to learn more.

    NFL Preview - In-Depth Analysis
    In the most likely Super Bowl, the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks. Check out in-depth analysis for every team in the league.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by