From Brady to Garoppolo to Brissett.
The Patriots quarterback situation has been interesting to say the least. With Tom Brady out for the first four weeks of the season due to suspension, the Patriots turned to Jimmy Garoppolo, who looked like he was fully in command of the Patriots offense until he went down with a sprained AC joint on Sunday against Miami. Jacoby Brissett, a third round pick out of N.C. State, manned the Pats offense for the remainder of the game, which saw the Patriots stave off a comeback from the Dolphins. It's hard to really gain anything out of Brissett's performance though. New England went into full "run the clock" mode as Brissett only threw nine passes, completing six of them for 92 yards.
One of the things we love to do here at PredictionMachine.com is run through hypotheticals. We obviously know that Garoppolo is a downgrade from Brady and we think that Brissett will be a downgrade from Garopollo, but by how much? We ran the remainder of the NFL season 50,000 times to see exactly what each quarterback is worth. For the purposes of this hypothetical, we assumed that each quarterback would be playing every game from Week 3 onwards (yes, we know Brady is suspended and Garoppolo is injured). The results may or may not surprise you.
So, while we've seen tweet
praising Garoppolo for his performance thus far (and he has been quite good thus far), he's still no Tom Brady. In fact, he's nowhere close to Tom Brady. Sorry, Jimmy.
As for Brissett, it's really tough to quantify the young quarterback because of the limited amount of data available. We had to look deep into college numbers and other quarterbacks who were drafted in a similar range to try to come up with a data set that we feel is an accurate depiction of his true talent. Granted, there are flaws in this technique (there will never be a perfect technique to project quarterbacks with a small sample size), but we feel that what we have arrived at is fairly accurate. We also cannot account for Bill Belichick's gameplan, and from what we've seen from Belichick in the past, nothing would surprise us. Julian Edelman, who is listed as the Pats' backup quarterback this week, was an option quarterback for Kent State in college, so there's always the possibility that he sees some snaps under center as well.