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    NFL Picks Week 3

    Last Updated: 9/21/2016 at 8:00 PM ET
    See Predictalator Picks for this week. All trends created in the Trend Machine. Injuries noted are players who are usually active who did not play in the simulated games.

    Thursday, September 22 at 8:25 PM ET:

    Houston Texans -1 @ New England Patriots (Covers 52.8%), UNDER 40.5 (Covers 50.3%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Houston 21.2 - New England 19.1
    SU Pick and Win%: Houston wins 55.8%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #12
    ATS Pick and Win%: Houston Texans -1 covers 52.8%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #12
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $4
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (40.5) 50.3%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #16
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: HOU NE
    Straight-Up Record 2-0 2-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 2-0 2-0
    Over/Under Record 0-2 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 21.0-13.0 27.0-22.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #30 #5
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #28 #26
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #9 #30
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #4 #13
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #20 #18
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 51.1%/48.9% #51.4%/48.6%
    Turnover Margin +1 +1

    Injured Players: Lonnie Ballentine, S, Houston Texans, Duane Brown, T, Houston Texans, Brian Cushing, LB, Houston Texans, Braxton Miller, WR, Houston Texans, Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots, Jonathan Cooper, T, New England Patriots, A.J. Derby, TE, New England Patriots, Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, New England Patriots, Dont'a Hightower, LB, New England Patriots, Tre' Jackson, T, New England Patriots, Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots, Rob Ninkovich, DE, New England Patriots, Sebastian Vollmer, T, New England Patriots

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 70 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 68% Houston, 32% New England; O/U Bets - 66% Over, 34% Under

    The Breakdown: Assumptions. We have to make plenty of assumptions just to generate a boxscore for this game - and we are only 24 hours away from game time. Assuming Jacoby Brissett starts at quarterback and that Rob Gronkowski is healthy, there is some light value in Houston -1 to win on the road. If Jimmy Garoppolo were playing at full strength with Gronkowski, the Patriots would be just less than three point favorites in this game (the Predictalator really does not like Brissett). It's not likely that Gronkowski or Garoppolo plays at full strength, so the Texans are the current lean. We will update as necessary if/when we know for sure if any of our assumptions are involid.

    Boxscore: Houston Texans, 21 @ New England Patriots, 19

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Cleveland Browns +10 @ Miami Dolphins (Covers 58.8%), OVER 42 (Covers 52.1%)
    ATS Play Type: Normal
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Cleveland 18.1 - Miami 25.1
    SU Pick and Win%: Miami wins 68.0%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #2
    ATS Pick and Win%: Cleveland Browns +10 covers 58.8%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #1
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $67
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (42) 52.1%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #11
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: CLE MIA
    Straight-Up Record 0-2 0-2
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-1
    Over/Under Record 1-1 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 15.0-27.0 17.0-21.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #11 #1
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #32 #17
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #18 #32
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #30 #28
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #29 #11
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 59.6%/40.4% #68.7%/31.3%
    Turnover Margin -1 -1

    Injured Players: Armonty Bryant, DE, Cleveland Browns, Cameron Erving, C, Cleveland Browns, Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns, Josh McCown, QB, Cleveland Browns, Carl Nassib, DE, Cleveland Browns, Randall Telfer, TE, Cleveland Browns, Chris Culliver, CB, Miami Dolphins, Arian Foster, RB, Miami Dolphins, Dion Jordan, DE, Miami Dolphins, Isaiah Pead, RB, Miami Dolphins, Mike Pouncey, C, Miami Dolphins, Zach Vigil, LB, Miami Dolphins

    Weather Forecast: Chance of thunderstorms. 87 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 29% Cleveland, 71% Miami; O/U Bets - 24% Over, 76% Under

    The Breakdown: Though it likely is the opposite for a fan, this pick is an easy one for the Predictalator to make. No, this is not an expression of confidence in Cody Kessler for the Browns. Though better than Brissett at #24, Kessler still only graded as the #13 QB in his draft class this season.

    This Lock of the Week is all about the Dolphins. (Ok, so maybe it's about people overreacting to how bad the Browns are and not realizing how bad the Dolphins are.)

    Miami entered the season in the bottom two of our NFL Power Rankings. Despite two close losses, the Dolphins are still in that position. In fact, this is #32 taking on #31, the two worst teams in our Power Rankings. If the second-worst team is to be expected to win by more than ten points over the worst team in the league, even at home, then the Browns would currently be accomplishing something with their roster even more extreme than what we saw out of the Philadelphia 76ers under Sam Hinkie in the NBA. That's not exactly what is happening.

    Miami ranks as having the worst run offense, a bottom five pass defense and a below average passing attack (though Ryan Tannehill does have fantasy value this week). From a talent perspective, the Dolphins are in the bottom five in the NFL on offense, defense and special teams. How do you trust that kind of team to win by double digits?

    Boxscore: Cleveland Browns, 18 @ Miami Dolphins, 25

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Denver Broncos +3.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals (Covers 58.6%), UNDER 41 (Covers 55.5%)
    ATS Play Type: Normal
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Denver 19.2 - Cincinnati 18.9
    SU Pick and Win%: Denver wins 50.4%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #16
    ATS Pick and Win%: Denver Broncos +3.5 covers 58.6%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #2
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $65
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (41) 55.5%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #7
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $33

    The Teams: DEN CIN
    Straight-Up Record 2-0 1-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 2-0 0-2
    Over/Under Record 1-1 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 27.5-20.0 19.5-23.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #22 #2
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #31 #5
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #14 #24
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #1 #6
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #23
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 50.8%/49.2% #71.3%/28.7%
    Turnover Margin -1 0

    Injured Players: Ty Sambrailo, T, Denver Broncos, DeMarcus Ware, LB, Denver Broncos, Vontaze Burfict, LB, Cincinnati Bengals, Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals, Cedric Peerman, RB, Cincinnati Bengals, Brandon Thompson, DT, Cincinnati Bengals

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 79 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 56% Denver, 44% Cincinnati; O/U Bets - 48% Over, 52% Under

    The Breakdown: Somehow, the defending Super Bowl champions continue to be underrated. The team with the best defense in the NFL, that has the best pass defense and a top five run defense keeps ending up on the wrong side of the spread due to bettors' fixation on the quarterbacks. Quarterbacks are really important. That's why it's so valuable to rush the passer, cover receivers and force turnovers on defense. An elite pass defense at a sustained level unlike we have seen in the last 15 seasons, which is what Denver has, can make up for a weak quarterback on offense.

    This is the ninth time since the start of last season that the Denver Broncos have been underdogs. In the previous eight matchups, Denver won STRAIGHT-UP seven times (the under is 5-3 in those games and has covered in three in a row). The Broncos' only loss as an underdog came at Pittsburgh in Week 15 last season (they actually led that game 27-10 at one point before losing and then avenging that loss three weeks later in the playoffs).

    While all the focus of the fans, media, bettors, etc. is on Trevor Siemian and his limitations, the Broncos' defense should continue to dominate.

    It also does not hurt the pick that the Bengals struggle against the run and Broncos have a balanced attack with an above average run defense.

    Boxscore: Denver Broncos, 19 @ Cincinnati Bengals, 19

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Oakland Raiders +1.5 @ Tennessee Titans (Covers 56.5%), OVER 47 (Covers 53.6%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Oakland 25.4 - Tennessee 23.8
    SU Pick and Win%: Oakland wins 53.0%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #13
    ATS Pick and Win%: Oakland Raiders +1.5 covers 56.5%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #5
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $43
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (47) 53.6%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #9
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $13

    The Teams: OAK TEN
    Straight-Up Record 1-1 1-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-1
    Over/Under Record 2-0 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 31.5-34.5 16.0-20.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #28 #16
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #13 #21
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #1 #8
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #18 #26
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #15 #17
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 62.2%/37.8% #63.2%/36.8%
    Turnover Margin +2 -3

    Injured Players: David Amerson, CB, Oakland Raiders, Gabe Holmes, TE, Oakland Raiders, Marcel Reece, RB, Oakland Raiders, Aldon Smith, LB, Oakland Raiders, Menelik Watson, T, Oakland Raiders, Derrick Morgan, LB, Tennessee Titans, Kendall Wright, WR, Tennessee Titans

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 88 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 76% Oakland, 24% Tennessee; O/U Bets - 16% Over, 84% Under

    The Breakdown: Oakland has already played at 1 pm ET once this season. That resulted in a one point, 35-34, shootout victory over New Orleans. Our projection sees ten fewer points for each team, yet a similar result.

    The Titans curently rank ten spots behind New Orleans in our NFL Power Rankings. They have a good and oft-utilized running game. And while, not really terrible at any other facet of the game, the Titans are not great or even above average at much else either.

    Oakland has some clear strengths that are stronger than any area for the Titans. With rookies DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard joining Latavius Murray in a running back committee as well as what is the AFC's best offensive line (and, on talent, appears to be the best run blocking line in the league), the Raiders are the most efficient run offense in the NFL. They also rank above average in pass offense and run defense.

    These teams are built somewhat alike with a focus on physical football and winning at the line, yet the Raiders are better in every respect and should win in a mild upset.

    Boxscore: Oakland Raiders, 25 @ Tennessee Titans, 24

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Minnesota Vikings +7 @ Carolina Panthers (Covers 55.3%), UNDER 43 (Covers 51.0%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Minnesota 18.7 - Carolina 23.8
    SU Pick and Win%: Carolina wins 63.0%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #5
    ATS Pick and Win%: Minnesota Vikings +7 covers 55.3%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #6
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $31
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (43) 51.0%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #14
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: MIN CAR
    Straight-Up Record 2-0 1-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 2-0 1-1
    Over/Under Record 0-1 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 21.0-15.0 33.0-24.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #21 #7
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #18 #8
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #26 #4
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #7
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #4 #6
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 57.6%/42.4% #52.7%/47.3%
    Turnover Margin +5 +1

    Injured Players: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Minnesota Vikings, Mike Harris, T, Minnesota Vikings, Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings, Xavier Rhodes, CB, Minnesota Vikings, Leonard Johnson, CB, Carolina Panthers, Dean Marlowe, S, Carolina Panthers, Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

    Weather Forecast: Light rain. 83 degrees. Winds 8-12 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 60% Minnesota, 40% Carolina; O/U Bets - 59% Over, 41% Under

    The Breakdown: Teddy Bridgewater. Adrian Peterson. Matt Kalil. These are names that you (likely) know and that will drive reactions in the market when injuries occur (in this case, Minnesota will be without all of them, likely for the rest of the year). However, Minnesota is not built around those players. Bridgewater's impact is the only one that even makes a net point of difference per game for the Vikings. Mike Zimmer's squad won a division last season and leads a division this season on the strength of its defense. Through two games, the Vikings have held the Titans and Packers to just 4.49 yards-per-play, while generating a turnover on 4.7% of plays (both top five in the league). A low scoring game should keep this competitive (favorites of 7+ points are just 53-72 ATS when the total is 43 or lower in the last five seasons).

    Boxscore: Minnesota Vikings, 19 @ Carolina Panthers, 24

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Arizona Cardinals -4 @ Buffalo Bills (Covers 54.5%), OVER 47 (Covers 50.6%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Arizona 26.6 - Buffalo 20.8
    SU Pick and Win%: Arizona wins 63.3%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #4
    ATS Pick and Win%: Arizona Cardinals -4 covers 54.5%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #8
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $22
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (47) 50.6%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #15
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: ARI BUF
    Straight-Up Record 1-1 0-2
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 0-2
    Over/Under Record 0-2 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 30.5-15.0 19.0-25.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #23 #10
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #7 #16
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #10 #2
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #2 #16
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #9 #22
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 61.3%/38.7% #56.1%/43.9%
    Turnover Margin +7 +1

    Injured Players: Kareem Martin, LB, Arizona Cardinals, Robert Nkemdiche, DE, Arizona Cardinals, Frostee Rucker, DE, Arizona Cardinals, Colt Anderson, S, Buffalo Bills, Marcell Dareus, NT, Buffalo Bills, Jim Dray, TE, Buffalo Bills, Marcus Easley, WR, Buffalo Bills, Cordy Glenn, T, Buffalo Bills, Seantrel Henderson, T, Buffalo Bills, Shaq Lawson, DE, Buffalo Bills, Kolby Listenbee, WR, Buffalo Bills

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 64 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 84% Arizona, 16% Buffalo; O/U Bets - 87% Over, 13% Under

    The Breakdown: Arizona is back atop the NFL Power Rankings according to the Predictalator. The preseason #1 team, slipped two spots after Week 1, yet regained its spot at #1 after destroying Tampa Bay, 40-7, last week. The Cardinals, who led the NFL in yards-per-play differential last season, are doing so again this year through two games, out-gaining opponents by 1.4 yards-per-play thus far. They rank in the top ten in all of our efficieny categories. Buffalo has a very good ground game, but that's it. The Bills are below average at everything else.

    The number (-4) is also pretty interesting. While road favorites tend to be overvalued at the extremes, favorites of 3.5 to 6.5 (between a field goal or a touchdown) on the road tend to be undervalued. Generally the clear favorite, yet with the market hesitating to drive the number up for whatever reason, an easy win from a road favorite is not that uncommon. In the last decade, road favorites of 3.5 to 6.5 points are 75-58-2 (56.4% ATS). All other road favorites in that stretch are 121-133-10 (47.6% ATS).

    Boxscore: Arizona Cardinals, 27 @ Buffalo Bills, 21

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 1:00 PM ET:

    New York Giants -4 vs Washington Redskins (Covers 53.5%), OVER 46 (Covers 58.0%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Normal

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Washington 22.9 - New York 28.2
    SU Pick and Win%: New York wins 62.8%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #6
    ATS Pick and Win%: New York Giants -4 covers 53.5%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #9
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $12
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (46) 58.0%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #2
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $59

    The Teams: WAS NYG
    Straight-Up Record 0-2 2-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-2 1-1
    Over/Under Record 2-0 0-2
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 19.5-32.5 18.0-16.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #17 #25
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #10 #6
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #25 #19
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #22 #9
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #27 #16
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 75.8%/24.2% #56.6%/43.4%
    Turnover Margin -1 -4

    Injured Players: Derek Carrier, TE, Washington Redskins, Kedric Golston, NT, Washington Redskins, Kendall Reyes, DE, Washington Redskins, Martrell Spaight, LB, Washington Redskins, Marshall Newhouse, T, New York Giants, Robert Thomas, DT, New York Giants

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 64 degrees. Light win.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 40% Washington, 60% New York; O/U Bets - 62% Over, 38% Under

    The Breakdown: Recent line movement from -4.5 to -4 for the Giants has given New York light value in this game. The Giants offense, which was expected to pass the ball heavily and run at a fast pace, has yet to find its explosiveness, yet the team is still 2-0. At some point, Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr. and the rest of the passing attack will have a day filled with big plays. This may be that day (it should at least be better than last week). But that is not a requirement for the Giants to win (and cover). A much improved defense, particularly on the line, New York is allowing just 4.6 yards-per-play on the season thus far. Overall, the Giants have out-gained their opponents by more than a yard-per-play, which ranks third in teh league thus far. And, though the end result was the win that Ben McAdoo wanted, New York could have easily won by more than three points at home against the Saints last week.

    Boxscore: Washington Redskins, 23 @ New York Giants, 28

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Baltimore Ravens PK @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Covers 52.6%), UNDER 47 (Covers 58.9%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Normal

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Baltimore 21.3 - Jacksonville 20.2
    SU Pick and Win%: Baltimore wins 52.6%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #14
    ATS Pick and Win%: Baltimore Ravens PK covers 52.6%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #14
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $2
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (47) 58.9%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #1
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $68

    The Teams: BAL JAC
    Straight-Up Record 2-0 0-2
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-1
    Over/Under Record 1-1 2-0
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 19.0-13.5 18.5-32.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #31 #8
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #20 #22
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #27 #29
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #12 #19
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #13 #8
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 60.3%/39.7% #71.8%/28.2%
    Turnover Margin -1 -3

    Injured Players: Nick Boyle, TE, Baltimore Ravens, Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore Ravens, Elvis Dumervil, LB, Baltimore Ravens, Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Baltimore Ravens, John Urschel, T, Baltimore Ravens, Darren Waller, TE, Baltimore Ravens, Kelvin Beachum, T, Jacksonville Jaguars, Luke Bowanko, C, Jacksonville Jaguars, Aaron Colvin, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars, Roy Miller, NT, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jared Odrick, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jonathan Woodard, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars

    Weather Forecast: Thunderstorms likely. 87 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 44% Baltimore, 56% Jacksonville; O/U Bets - 27% Over, 73% Under

    The Breakdown: At PK, we just need to figure out who we think is going to win the game to play it. Even with a task that simple, there is limited value in what appears close to a coinflip straight-up. Jacksonville is bad... still. The Jaguars currently rank 29th in our NFL Power Rankings overall. They are eighth against the run from an efficiency perspective, yet below average in everything else. Baltimroe is not elite at anything specifically, yet the Ravens are pretty good at everything and lack a fatal flaw (assuming the team is pretty healthy - like right now).

    Also, since there is value in the UNDER (47), it's worth noting that Ravens' games have only included 48+ points in four of their last 16 contests. All three units (pass offense, run offense, etc.) in this game belong to the defense as well.

    Boxscore: Baltimore Ravens, 21 @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 20

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 1:00 PM ET:

    Detroit Lions +7.5 @ Green Bay Packers (Covers 50.9%), OVER 48 (Covers 55.9%)
    ATS Play Type: Not Playable
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Detroit 22.4 - Green Bay 29.6
    SU Pick and Win%: Green Bay wins 67.0%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #3
    ATS Pick and Win%: Detroit Lions +7.5 covers 50.9%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #15
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (48) 55.9%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #6
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $37

    The Teams: DET GB
    Straight-Up Record 1-1 1-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 0-2
    Over/Under Record 1-1 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 27.0-25.5 20.5-20.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #29 #4
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #15 #9
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #15 #11
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #24 #14
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #28 #14
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 64.1%/35.9% #61.3%/38.7%
    Turnover Margin 0 -1

    Injured Players: Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions, Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Detroit Lions, Adairius Barnes, CB, Detroit Lions, Corey Fuller, WR, Detroit Lions, DeAndre Levy, LB, Detroit Lions, Kyle Van Noy, LB, Detroit Lions, Cole Wick, TE, Detroit Lions, Chris Banjo, S, Green Bay Packers, Demetri Goodson, CB, Green Bay Packers, Josh Hawkins, CB, Green Bay Packers, Jeff Janis, WR, Green Bay Packers, Corey Linsley, C, Green Bay Packers, Mike Pennel, NT, Green Bay Packers, Sam Shields, CB, Green Bay Packers

    Weather Forecast: Chance of thunderstorms. 67 degrees. Winds 8-12 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 42% Detroit, 58% Green Bay; O/U Bets - 35% Over, 65% Under

    The Breakdown: The Packers are the better team and should win by right around a touchdown, which means the game is not playable against-the-spread this week. Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense to bounce back after Sunday night's dreadful performance in Minnesota.

    Boxscore: Detroit Lions, 22 @ Green Bay Packers, 30

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 4:05 PM ET:

    Los Angeles Rams +5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Covers 55.2%), UNDER 42 (Covers 51.4%)
    ATS Play Type: Half-Bet
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Los Angeles 19.1 - Tampa Bay 22.2
    SU Pick and Win%: Tampa Bay wins 58.7%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #10
    ATS Pick and Win%: Los Angeles Rams +5 covers 55.2%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #7
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $30
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (42) 51.4%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #12
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: LA TB
    Straight-Up Record 1-1 1-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-1
    Over/Under Record 0-2 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 4.5-15.5 19.0-32.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #13 #3
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #29 #19
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #5 #22
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #10 #25
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #12 #2
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 59.3%/40.7% #64.0%/36.0%
    Turnover Margin 0 -6

    Injured Players: Pharoh Cooper, WR, Los Angeles Rams, E.J. Gaines, CB, Los Angeles Rams, Nelson Spruce, WR, Los Angeles Rams, Robert Ayers, DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Louis Murphy, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Luke Stocker, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, J.R. Sweezy, T, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Weather Forecast: Scattered thunderstorms. 86 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 37% Los Angeles, 63% Tampa Bay; O/U Bets - 18% Over, 82% Under

    The Breakdown: Tampa Bay has been a favorite of the Predictalator this season (in Weeks 1 and 2 and with O/U Season Win Totals and Futures picks). That being said, trusting the Buccaneers to win easily over a team with a very good defense is difficult to do, especially in a game that will likely be impacted by weather as well. This appears to be another scenario in which the defenses are being undervalued and the quarterbacks (from a name value perspective) are being overvalued.

    As bad as the Rams have looked offensively, they have only been outgained by 0.5 yards-per-play this season. That's not good, but the Buccaneers have been outgained by more than a yard-per-play in two contest (small sample size, obviously, but that ranks third-worst in the league despite the 1-1 record). Though much has changed over the stretch, it is also interesting that the Buccaneers have won one of their last 17 home games by more than five points (a seven point victory over Jacksonville in Week 5 last year).

    And in Josh McCown meets Brian Hoyer news, Case Keenum is another quarterback who tends to do enough to keep his teams in games. In 18 career NFL starts, Case Keenum has only lost by more than a touchdown twice (he has lost by more than five points two other times). He has a remarkable seven losses by a field goal or less. That's all we need to cover.

    Boxscore: Los Angeles Rams, 19 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 22

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 4:05 PM ET:

    Seattle Seahawks -9.5 vs San Francisco 49ers (Covers 53.0%), OVER 40 (Covers 57.9%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Normal

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: San Francisco 17.1 - Seattle 27.5
    SU Pick and Win%: Seattle wins 76.3%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #1
    ATS Pick and Win%: Seattle Seahawks -9.5 covers 53.0%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #11
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $7
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (40) 57.9%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #3
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $58

    The Teams: SF SEA
    Straight-Up Record 1-1 1-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 0-2
    Over/Under Record 1-1 0-2
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 27.5-23.0 7.5-9.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #6 #26
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #30 #4
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #20 #13
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #27 #5
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #19 #1
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 51.8%/48.2% #59.7%/40.3%
    Turnover Margin +2 -3

    Injured Players: Tank Carradine, LB, San Francisco 49ers, Marcus Cromartie, S, San Francisco 49ers, Anthony Davis, T, San Francisco 49ers, Aaron Lynch, LB, San Francisco 49ers, Rashard Robinson, CB, San Francisco 49ers, Germain Ifedi, T, Seattle Seahawks, C.J. Prosise, RB, Seattle Seahawks

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 64 degrees. Winds 10-15 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 83% San Francisco, 17% Seattle; O/U Bets - 19% Over, 81% Under

    The Breakdown: Lining up the rosters and reviewing talent, this should not be close. Clearly, the spread does reflect this, yet the Seahawks at home should win by a little more than current expectations in the sports books. Though both teams have 1-1 records and the Seahawks have yet to score a touchdown or force a turnover, Seattle has still outgained its opponents by a full yard more per play on the season than the 49ers. The TDs and the turnovers are going to come and its likely sooner than later. With every other advantage Seattle has in this game, that should lead to a relative rout.

    Boxscore: San Francisco 49ers, 17 @ Seattle Seahawks, 28

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 4:25 PM ET:

    San Diego Chargers +3 @ Indianapolis Colts (Covers 58.4%), OVER 52 (Covers 54.7%)
    ATS Play Type: Normal
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: San Diego 28.4 - Indianapolis 27.0
    SU Pick and Win%: San Diego wins 52.0%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #15
    ATS Pick and Win%: San Diego Chargers +3 covers 58.4%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #4
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $63
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (52) 54.7%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $24

    The Teams: SD IND
    Straight-Up Record 1-1 0-2
    Against-the-Spread Record 2-0 0-2
    Over/Under Record 2-0 2-0
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 32.5-23.5 27.5-36.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #20 #14
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #11 #12
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #28 #17
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #11 #31
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #32 #31
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 49.2%/50.8% #70.1%/29.9%
    Turnover Margin +3 -1

    Injured Players: Jahleel Addae, S, San Diego Chargers, Orlando Franklin, T, San Diego Chargers, Damion Square, DT, San Diego Chargers, Chris Watt, C, San Diego Chargers, Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers, Henry Anderson, DE, Indianapolis Colts, Darius Butler, CB, Indianapolis Colts, Trent Cole, LB, Indianapolis Colts, Clayton Geathers, S, Indianapolis Colts, Denzelle Good, T, Indianapolis Colts, T.J. Green, S, Indianapolis Colts, Arthur Jones, DT, Indianapolis Colts, Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts, Patrick Robinson, CB, Indianapolis Colts

    Weather Forecast: N/A

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 40% San Diego, 60% Indianapolis; O/U Bets - 86% Over, 14% Under

    The Breakdown: Indianapolis is a little bit more of a mess than the Chargers health-wise right now. Even with Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen out for the year and Vontae Davis practicing today, the fact that the five of the Colts' top seven defensive backs are still banged up and the defensive and offensive lines continue to have issues (with injuries and lack of talent) puts Indianapolis in a very difficult spot against any relatively decent opponent.

    Enter San Diego, 2016's definition of relatively decent. The Chargers currently rank 18th in our Power Rankings. They rank 11th in pass offense and against the pass. And while they are the worst team in the NFL against the run, Indianapolis is currently running the ball less than 30% of the time and ranks below average in efficiency when doing so. Add in a Colts' defense that we currently evaluate as second-worst in the league against the run and pass and the Chargers win this shootout just a little bit more often than not.

    Boxscore: San Diego Chargers, 28 @ Indianapolis Colts, 27

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 4:25 PM ET:

    Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles (Covers 53.1%), OVER 46 (Covers 52.9%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Light

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Pittsburgh 26.2 - Philadelphia 21.5
    SU Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh wins 61.1%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #8
    ATS Pick and Win%: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 covers 53.1%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $8
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (46) 52.9%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #10
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $5

    The Teams: PIT PHI
    Straight-Up Record 2-0 2-0
    Against-the-Spread Record 2-0 2-0
    Over/Under Record 1-1 0-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 31.0-16.0 29.0-12.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #19 #32
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #3 #23
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #7 #12
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #17 #20
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #7 #30
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 53.5%/46.5% #53.2%/46.8%
    Turnover Margin +1 +4

    Injured Players: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers, Senquez Golson, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ladarius Green, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers, Roosevelt Nix, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cody Wallace, C, Pittsburgh Steelers, Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles, Bryce Treggs, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

    Weather Forecast: Dry. 70 degrees. Winds 10-15 MPH.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 81% Pittsburgh, 19% Philadelphia; O/U Bets - 89% Over, 11% Under

    The Breakdown: Sure, the fact that Carson Wentz is 2-0 and has not turned the ball over is notable. It's also notable that the Eagles have played the league's easiest schedule through two weeks and that Wentz ranks just 27th in yards-per-pass attempt. The Eagles are likely to come crashing back down to Earth into their rightful spot among the league's weakest rosters. Philadelphia only evaluates as the 27th ranked team in our NFL Power Rankings. The Eagles grade as 25th in pass offense and 29th in run defense. The Steelers have the #7 team in our Poer Rankings and rank as having a top ten pass offense, run offense and run defense. They were our preseason AFC favorites, while Philadelphia was projected to have the league's third worst record before the season started. It's still not all that unlikely to see both of those things occur. Mismatch.

    Boxscore: Pittsburgh Steelers, 26 @ Philadelphia Eagles, 22

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 4:25 PM ET:

    Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs New York Jets (Covers 52.7%), OVER 42.5 (Covers 51.3%)
    ATS Play Type: Light
    O/U Play Type: Not Playable

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: New York 19.6 - Kansas City 23.7
    SU Pick and Win%: Kansas City wins 60.3%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #9
    ATS Pick and Win%: Kansas City Chiefs -3 covers 52.7%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #13
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $3
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (42.5) 51.3%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #13
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0

    The Teams: NYJ KC
    Straight-Up Record 1-1 1-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 2-0 0-2
    Over/Under Record 2-0 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 29.5-27.0 22.5-23.0
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #12 #15
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #24 #14
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #16 #3
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #21 #8
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #21
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 51.8%/48.2% #70.8%/29.2%
    Turnover Margin 0 -2

    Injured Players: Breno Giacomini, T, New York Jets, Erin Henderson, LB, New York Jets, Jordan Jenkins, LB, New York Jets, Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets, Darryl Roberts, CB, New York Jets, Devin Smith, WR, New York Jets, Sam Barrington, LB, Kansas City Chiefs, Tyler Bray, QB, Kansas City Chiefs, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, T, Kansas City Chiefs, Parker Ehinger, T, Kansas City Chiefs, Justin Houston, LB, Kansas City Chiefs

    Weather Forecast: Thunderstorms likely. 74 degrees. Light wind.

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 76% New York, 24% Kansas City; O/U Bets - 45% Over, 55% Under

    The Breakdown: Hey, we like a home favorite this week (actually, we have light plays on the Giants and the Chiefs, so that's two). This is more relevant to the rest of this article than this pick, but, in this society oversaturated by content and focused on "hot takes" and overreaction, it's not surprising that Week 3 favorites in the last decade are 11 games under .500 (71-82-5 ATS) and that home teams are seven games under .500 under the same stretch (73-80-5 ATS). Here is one of the strongest hopes for a home favorite to win and cover and it comes in a four point win for the Chiefs (-3).

    Kansas City lost the turnover battle (which is incredibly rare) and only gained 4.8 yards-per-play last week against Houston and still played the Texans to within one score. Even without Jamaal Charles likely to come back for this game, the Chiefs grade as having a top three running attack in the league. The Jets rank second against the run. With that stalemate, we look elsewhere. The Chiefs have the #17 passing attack, while the Jets are #18 in pass defense. The Jets are #17 in run offense efficiency and the Chiefs are #21 against the run. Then there is Ryan Fitzpatrick and the passing offense, which likely will not have Brandon Marshall, which currently ranks #19 in the NFL. The Chiefs, even without Justin Houston, rank eighth against the pass. There it is. A much better pass defense and home field advantage should lead to a Kansas City win.

    Boxscore: New York Jets, 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs, 24

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Sunday, September 25 at 8:30 PM ET:

    Chicago Bears +7 @ Dallas Cowboys (Covers 58.6%), UNDER 44.5 (Covers 56.7%)
    ATS Play Type: Normal
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Chicago 18.3 - Dallas 22.4
    SU Pick and Win%: Dallas wins 61.5%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #7
    ATS Pick and Win%: Chicago Bears +7 covers 58.6%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #3
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $65
    O/U Pick and Win%: UNDER (44.5) 56.7%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #4
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $45

    The Teams: CHI DAL
    Straight-Up Record 0-2 1-1
    Against-the-Spread Record 0-2 1-1
    Over/Under Record 0-1 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 14.0-26.0 23.0-21.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #9 #27
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #27 #25
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #31 #6
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #15 #23
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #10 #26
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 63.5%/36.5% #56.8%/43.2%
    Turnover Margin -3 +1

    Injured Players: Adrian Amos, S, Chicago Bears, Deon Bush, S, Chicago Bears, Bryce Callahan, CB, Chicago Bears, Kyle Fuller, CB, Chicago Bears, Eddie Goldman, NT, Chicago Bears, Pernell McPhee, LB, Chicago Bears, Randy Gregory, DE, Dallas Cowboys, James Hanna, TE, Dallas Cowboys, Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Dallas Cowboys, Darren McFadden, RB, Dallas Cowboys, Mark Nzeocha, LB, Dallas Cowboys, Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys, Jaylon Smith, LB, Dallas Cowboys, Charles Tapper, DE, Dallas Cowboys

    Weather Forecast: N/A

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 65% Chicago, 35% Dallas; O/U Bets - 8% Over, 92% Under

    The Breakdown: As the starting quarterback for the Houston Texans for most of last season, Brian Hoyer led his team to a record of 5-5 straight-up with two losses by a touchdown or less. In his career as a starter, Hoyer is 14-12 straight-up. Of his 12 losses, six have come by a touchdown or less (meaning he would be 20-6 ATS against a +7 spread). Hoyer has an interception rate of 2.6% and has thrown for 7.2 yards-per-pass on over 1,000 attempts in the league. Jay Cutler, who Hoyer is replacing this season, has an interception rate of 3.3% and 7.2 yards-per-pass.

    While the market seems to have collectively overreacted to Cutler's injury and an uninspired performance from the Bears on Monday night overall (in the last five seasons, teams failing to cover by 17+ points on Monday night are 65% ATS the next week), the gap between Cutler and Hoyer is not as great as most may believe and, as we discussed with Josh McCown heading into the Lock of the Week (Cleveland +6.5 over Baltimore) last week, Hoyer is adept at keeping his teams competitive. In actuality, though not worth the dramatic, three point swing we have already seen with the spread moving in Dallas' favor, the defensive injuries for the Bears should be more impactful than the difference between the quarterbacks.

    Similarly, it is difficult to expect the Cowboys to be dominant. Without Tony Romo as starting quarterback, the Cowboys have not won a game by more than seven points since Jon Kitna threw for a meager 147 yards for Dallas in a 35-19 win over the Lions on November 21, 2011. That's 23 consecutive games started by someone besides Tony Romo in which the team did not win by a touchdown or more. Even as a rooki, Dak Prescott appears better than Kitna, Stephen McGee, Kellen Moore and others, yet the dropoff from Romo to Prescott is still greater than Prescott's lead over that group. Considering the Cowboys' defense still evaluates as in the bottom ten against the run and pass, it's not likely the offense will be able to score enough on Monday night to win easily.

    Boxscore: Chicago Bears, 18 @ Dallas Cowboys, 22

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

    Monday, September 26 at 8:30 PM ET:

    Atlanta Falcons +3 @ New Orleans Saints (Covers 50.5%), OVER 54 (Covers 56.0%)
    ATS Play Type: Not Playable
    O/U Play Type: Half-Bet

    The Vitals:

    Projected Score: Atlanta 27.9 - New Orleans 30.7
    SU Pick and Win%: New Orleans wins 56.2%
    Week 3 SU Confidence Rank: #11
    ATS Pick and Win%: Atlanta Falcons +3 covers 50.5%
    Week 3 ATS Confidence Rank: #16
    ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
    O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (54) 56.0%
    Week 3 O/U Confidence Rank: #5
    O/U Wager for $50 Player: $38

    The Teams: ATL NO
    Straight-Up Record 1-1 0-2
    Against-the-Spread Record 1-1 1-1
    Over/Under Record 2-0 1-1
    Avg. Points For vs. Against 29.5-29.5 23.5-25.5
    Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #24 #18
    PM Passing Efficiency Rank #2 #1
    PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #23 #21
    PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #29 #32
    PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #25 #24
    Actual Pass/Run Ratio 60.2%/39.8% #71.8%/28.2%
    Turnover Margin 0 +2

    Injured Players: Jalen Collins, CB, Atlanta Falcons, Keanu Neal, S, Atlanta Falcons, Brooks Reed, DE, Atlanta Falcons, Delvin Breaux, CB, New Orleans Saints, Dannell Ellerbe, LB, New Orleans Saints, Josh Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints, Hau'oli Kikaha, LB, New Orleans Saints, Zach Strief, T, New Orleans Saints, Kenny Vaccaro, S, New Orleans Saints, P.J. Williams, CB, New Orleans Saints

    Weather Forecast: N/A

    Wagering Information: ATS Bets - 72% Atlanta, 28% New Orleans; O/U Bets - 60% Over, 40% Under

    The Breakdown: The two most prolific and efficient pass offenses for this week will meet inside on turf for this Monday night divisional matchup. Ultimately, with two defenses ranking among the five worst in the league against the pass, the game should not lack for scoring or big plays. It also looks pretty even aside from home field advantage. While the game could go either way and there is no playable opinion against-the-spread, expect points. Many fantasy contests will be decided Monday night.

    Boxscore: Atlanta Falcons, 28 @ New Orleans Saints, 31

    Breakdown: Game Breakdown

    HOU @ NE CLE @ MIA DEN @ CIN OAK @ TEN MIN @ CAR ARI @ BUF WAS @ NYG BAL @ JAC DET @ GB LA @ TB SF @ SEA SD @ IND PIT @ PHI NYJ @ KC CHI @ DAL ATL @ NO

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