New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    AL MVP and Cy Young Odds (03/24/17)

    By Frank Brank @realfrankbrank

    Let's break down the 2017 MVP and Cy Young races for the American League. Odds are courtesy of

    Mike Trout is the obvious favorite for AL MVP, as he is every year. He's a once-in-a-generation talent and is quickly becoming one of the best young players in the history of the game. For context, Mike Trout's worst of his first six seasons had a higher WAR than any other AL player last year.

    Mookie Betts had a huge breakout in his sophomore season where he came on strong at the end of the year. Mookie's triple slash of .318/.363/.534 was accompanied by incredible defense in center field. The question for Mookie is whether the league will begin to figure him out or if he can continue his success.

    Jose Altuve also had a breakout year last season. Granted, he's been a good player for some time but never quite this good. Altuve posted a 6.7 WAR and 24 home runs. That's an amazing feat for a guy who is listed at a generous 5'7”. However, Altuve probably isn't the third best player in the AL this season, and at 10/1 odds, he would need to have at least a 9% likelihood of winning the AL MVP to make it worth a wager on him.

    Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson have been as good or better than Altuve for a few seasons. Machado finished 0.2 WAR behind Altuve last year and Donaldson was 0.9 WAR ahead of him, according to FanGraphs. Machado has had three seasons at 6+ WAR already; Donaldson has had four straight. You'd also expect Machado and Donaldson to hit more home runs than Altuve, which is lucrative to MVP voters. If you're looking past the chalk and want value in the MVP race, these two third basemen are your best options.

    Chris Sale is no longer playing for a basement dwelling team. Thus, he's now the current favorite to win the Cy Young on potentially the best team in the AL. However, Fenway isn't the easiest park to pitch in, and many voters are still not open to using park-adjusted pitching stats. According to FanGraph's park factor analysis, Fenway rates above average in every hit factor besides home runs. Nonetheless, Sale will rack up the wins this season. If the voters still value that to the degree that it seems they do, he should clearly be the favorite.

    Corey Kluber has had quite the run of season's as of late. Many have characterized his last two years as “down years” while he's spun FIPs of 2.97 and 3.26 with ERAs of 3.49 and 3.14. As long as Kluber is working 200+ innings and continues his great command of the strike zone, he'll remain at the top of the Cy Young race all year. It doesn't hurt that he plays for one of the best teams in the Majors.

    Looking past the chalk, we arrive at Justin Verlander who finished second in Cy Young voting last season behind Rick Porcello. However, Verlander's resurgence may be somewhat overstated. Verlander's 3.04 ERA outperformed his 3.48 FIP, which is still quite impressive, by a decent margin. The biggest question for Verlander is if he can keep his velocity and associated uptick in strikeout rate up this season. Verlander also pitches for a team that we project to be around the .500 mark this season, which can hurt him in garnering votes at year's end.

    Chris Archer is a lucrative option for Cy Young this season, too. He's held steady in his huge jump in strikeout rate from two seasons ago and keeps improving his groundball rate. Archer only showed a 4.02 ERA last year, but it was aided in an unlucky 16.2% home run to fly ball ratio, well above his career average. If Archer continues his elite strikeout rate and can find a way to work his walk rate into an elite level, he'll be in the running for Cy Young.
    Print This Article
    NL MVP and Cy Young Odds (03/24/17)
    Top MLB Pitching Staffs (03/22/17)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!




    The Predictalator

    03/13/2017 Highlight: Using our ResultsFinder tool, it's evident that the Predictalator is entering March Madness in incredible form. The Predictalator posted 59 "normal" or better plays in March (plays with greater than 57% confidence) and went a stellar 36-23 (61.0%) on those plays. An average $50 bettor would have profited $678 using our recommended wager sizes. After posting an outstanding 8-1 (88.9%) ATS record on "normal" or better sides in last year's NCAA Tournament, the Predictalator looks poised to produce more NCAA Tournament winners.

    NBA predictions continue to follow the same heat wave of college hoops, as all playable sides are 30-25 (54.5%) ATS in the month of March. More importantly, top plays continue to produce at a staggering clip, with all "normal" or better sides off to a solid 9-3 (75.0%) ATS mark in March, producing $284 in profits for an average $50 bettor.

    The Predictalator's NHL picks continue to cash in consistenly as "normal" or better ML and PL plays are an outstanding 32-18 (64.0%) on the season, amassing $507 in total profits. While the betting market has really tightened up with NHL in recent months, the Predictalator continues to find success and is now 449-367 (55.0%) on all playable ML and PL plays this season.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    College Basketball Picks - Saturday Games
    The Predictalator has played all of Saturday's NCAA Tournament games 50,000 times to analyze chances of each team winning relative to the spread and over/under.

    A.L. MVP & Cy Young Odds
    Frank Brank explores the odds for A.L. MVP and A.L. Cy Young Awards posted at and gives a breakdown of the top contenders.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by