New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?

College Playoff (12/20/10)

By Paul Bessire

Monday, December 20 at 8:20 PM ET
I will always recap the weekend in football each Monday afternoon. It is very important to us to be transparent and to honest about our picks. In addition to working on bowl picks and trying to post the NFL picks by Tuesday night, I am also traveling all across the Midwest and, of course, I am dealing with car and weather issues right now. In other words, after a day of Christmas shopping-turned tire replacing-turned shoveling, I'm going to keep the blog pretty short this week so I can focus on other content in the fairly small window of time that I will have this week in the safety and warmth of my own home.

While the early games on Sunday were not ideal, we still went 10-4 with all "normal" or better (57%+ to cover) picks in the NFL this week (with one more pending tonight). After back-to-back 11-5 weeks with those picks in the NFL, that's strong. In total, with the college regular season, conference championship and bowl games during that stretch, we are 44-20 ATS and O/U with normal or better picks in the last three weeks. We'll take that.

The Football Numbers (though December 18 Bowls and NFL Week 15):

  • ATS Locks of the Week: 2-0 (BYU -11.5 won 52-24; Atlanta -6.5 won 34-18)
  • Year-to-Date ATS Locks of the Week: 22-9 (71%)
  • All-Time ATS Locks of the Week: 71-20-3 (78%)
  • YTD Daily Top ATS Plays: 59-24 (71%)
  • Paul's Picks ATS Week: 3-3 (with MNF game remaining)
  • YTD Paul's Picks ATS: 75-47 (61%)
  • YTD ATS All Games: 56%
  • YTD O/U All Games: 56%
  • YTD SU (NFL and FBS vs FBS College): 73%

 

College Football Playoffs: Last week on our Twitter feed @predictmachine I unveiled the results of our college football playoff. To me, the most logical approach to a college football Division IA playoff includes 16 teams. This ensures that the 11 conference champions each make the playoffs. It also allows for four weeks of playoff football - which happens to be the exact duration of the bowls. We'll use our power rankings to seed teams (bracket below). I wanted to use the actual BCS rankings, but that would leave our #3 team, Boise State out of the bracket, which is ridiculous. I played out the on Thursday. Each matchup was played in two different ways: 1) Results of 50,000 simulations of the game and 2) Results of one simulation of the game. I advanced teams based on the latter in order to illustrate what one playoff possibility could look like (and to differentiate the results from our power rankings or actual bowl results).

Here is what happened in the college football playoffs:

First Round Results:
1) Oregon Ducks 63
16) FIU Golden Panthers 3

8) Arkansas Razorbacks 19
9) Alabama Crimson Tide 28

5) Stanford Cardinal 41
12) Nevada Wolf Pack 24

4) TCU Horned Frogs 17
13) UCF Golden Knights 21

6) Wisconsin Badgers 27
11) Virginia Tech Hokies 23

3) Boise State Broncos 31
14) UConn Huskies 9

7) Ohio State Buckeyes 21
10) Oklahoma Sooners 31

2) Auburn Tigers 52
15) Miami (OH) 17

Round 2 Results:
1) Oregon Ducks 37
9) Alabama Crimson Tide 27

5) Stanford Cardinal 42
13) UCF Golden Knights 10

6) Wisconsin Badgers 20
3) Boise State Broncos 21

10) Oklahoma Sooners 44
2) Auburn Tigers 41

Semifinal Results:
1) Oregon Ducks 41
5) Stanford Cardinal 28

3) Boise State Broncos 24
10) Oklahoma Sooners 21

College Football Championship Results
1) Oregon Ducks 24
3) Boise State Broncos 20

NFL Playoff Odds:
Check in with Twitter tomorrow afternoon to see our updated projected playoff teams and teams' odds of winning the division, earning a wild card and winning the Super Bowl. If you want to know the chances of anything happening that we do not publish, reply on Twitter or contact us directly.

As usual, if you have any of your own suggestions about how to improve the site, please do not hesitate to contact us at any time. We respond to every support contact as quickly as we can (usually within a few hours) and are very amenable to suggestions. I firmly believe that open communication with our customers and user feedback is the best way for us to grow and provide the types of products that will maximize the experience for all. Thank you in advance for your suggestions, comments and questions.

Print This Article
PREVIOUS ARTICLE
College Recap Week 1 (9/6/11)
NEXT ARTICLE
Weekend Football Review (12/13/10)
Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

COMMENTS

SEARCH BLOGS

ARCHIVE

Ad

The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop.

10/27/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 20 - 26, one could find that highlighted, "normal" or better MLB picks went 2-0 to start the World Series and are now 31-11 (74% ML, O/U and RL) all-time. A normal $50 player using our play value recommendations would be +$747 during this MLB postseason.

In football, halftime picks were particularly strong. In Week 8 for the NFL, "normal" or better (and there are better) halftime picks went 7-1 (88% ATS and O/U). Combined NFL Week 8 and College Football Week 9 "normal" or better halftime picks hit 64% (ATS and O/U) and generated a profit of +$950 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Also, with a Central Michigan (-4) victory over Buffalo, 20-14, College Football Locks of the Week have covered in four straight weeks helping football Locks of the Week to a 103-59 (64% ATS) record all-time.

And with the season starting this week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

Recommended Features

LOGIN

LATEST ARTICLES

NFL Picks - Week 9
For Week 9 in the NFL, there are a total of six plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as a total of 11 playable against-the-spread picks. See Denver @ New England and more.

College Picks - Week 10
For Week 10 in the College Football, there are a total of 13 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better and four predicted outright upsets. See Stanford @ Oregon and more.

FIND US ONLINE


Statistical Information Provided by: SportsData © 2012

All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.
Home | The Predictalator | Features | Privacy |  Customer Support |  Media Contact |  Sitemap
© 2010-2014 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com