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Quick Weekend Review (10/4/11)

By Paul Bessire

Tuesday, October 4 at 2:30 PM ET
As alluded to in previous weeks, I was unable to update the blog due to travel yesterday. Since it is very important to us to be transparent and honest about our picks, I always try to recap each football weekend. While I'm already busy working on this week's picks, power rankings, playoff probabilities and fantasy information, coming off a 10-5-1 ATS NFL week where we went 4-0 on "Paul's Picks" and actually hit all 16 picks for 7-point teasers (all five of our losses came down to the wire, with Chicago, Dallas, Buffalo and the Cardinals breaking against us in the last few minutes... 16-team, 7-point teasers should payout 100:1 if available, though most books have a maximum team limit below that), I figured I should update the numbers. College has not been strong over the last two weeks, but I feel we must still disclose performance in both. Plus, we hit the Lock of Week in college; the Play Analyzer worked more in our favor this week in college than it had in past weeks; and we are still over .500 in the college "Paul's Picks" (and expect to see improvement there).

At this point, through Monday, Paul's Picks, which include the top three ATS plays Saturday and Sunday as well as the top weekday college against-the-spread (ATS) plays and the Monday Night play, are 22-13 ATS (63%) to start the season. The ATS Top Plays of the Day, the strongest opinion ATS each day overall in football are 13-9 ATS (59%) and the "Locks of the Week" are 5-3 ATS (63%). Including last season, this brings our all-time record during football to 120-78 ATS (61%) for Paul's Picks, 86-45 ATS (66%) in ATS Top Plays of the Day and 33-15 ATS (69%) for Locks of the week.

As a reminder, at midnight ET each day, we make all of our previous day's subscriber content available for free for registered users. We're never going to hide anything. So even though we have to swap out articles in the archive to focus on new ones, articles never go away. Just make sure to use the correct week and date in the URL - or ask us for the link...

The Football Numbers:
Below are our win/loss stats from Week 5 in College Football and NFL Week 4 using playable picks (53%+ to cover) from our published articles.

  • All Playable Games ATS: 50% (25-25)
  • All Playable Games O/U: 50% (16-16)
  • Paul's Picks ATS: 63% (5-3)
  • Lock of the Week: 100% (2-0)
  • ATS Top Plays of the Day: 75% (3-1)

And here are the combined numbers for the season thus far:

  • All Playable Games ATS: 51% (103-100)
  • All Playable Games O/U: 52% (95-87)
  • Paul's Picks ATS: 63% (22-13)
  • Lock of the Week: 63% (5-3)
  • ATS Top Plays of the Day: 59% (13-9)

NFL Performance:
With the overwhelmingly greater number of games in college as opposed to the NFL - and with the strong performance of the NFL to-date - here are NFL-specific ATS numbers:

  • All Playable Games ATS: 63% (34-20)
  • Paul's Picks ATS: 75% (12-4)
  • Lock of the Week: 50% (2-2)
  • ATS Top Plays of the Day: 78% (7-2)

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For Week 10 in the College Football, there are a total of 13 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better and four predicted outright upsets. See Stanford @ Oregon and more.

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