New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?

Welcome (1/26/2010)

By Paul Bessire

Welcome to PredictionMachine.com, and more specifically, welcome to my blog. You can learn more about me and my background by reading Paul Bessire's Bio, but I want to devote this space to setting the tone for the type of sports conversation that we will have in this blog.

I pay attention to the numbers. I believe in the numbers; moreover, I trust the numbers. This site is about the numbers and makes predictions based on the numbers. Numbers answer questions. Numbers signify which questions should be asked. Numbers are at the root of everything that we do.

So yes, a lot of this blog will cover how to effectively use numbers related to sports. However, there will be few - if any - equations, no prerequisites and, hopefully, enough of the fan in me will come out to provide some banter, humor, some sour grapes about the way Larry Fitzgerald manhandled Charles Woodson and more takes.

These will be discussed in greater detail in future posts and likely be themes to many articles, but for now, here is a list of items that I not only believe in, I know to be true:

  • "Intangibles" are myths. Everything - heart, clutch, toughness, chemistry, health, etc. - is either quantifiable, measurable and useful or irrelevant.

  • Numbers can be used to say or make a case for anything, but not necessarily prove anything. Finding the right numbers will find the right side of an argument.

  • "Momentum" is either fabricated or grossly overrated. Either way, it is immaterial.

  • The Law of Averages exists, but it has absolutely nothing to do with the next play.

  • Against whom, is just as important as what a player does...

  • ...and sample-size may be even more important to finding meaningful data.

  • A great deal of what happens in the very short-term is luck. The numbers prevail in the long-term.

  • Most sports-related, mathematical models are overly complex, yet most math-related commentary on sports is overly simplified.

  • Ratio or per-play statistics are far more valuable than aggregate numbers.

  • All major American sports still exist within confined boxes that creativity, ingenuity and logic should be able to breach.

  • Coaches are typically more concerned with external, social pressures than winning - to the point where many "aggressive" coaches are often that way because they think they are supposed to be, not because they are taking a sound approach.

  • All officiating should be maintained electronically.

  • The "OVER-RATED" chant may be the most ridiculous example of groupthink idiocy in sports.

  • I have no reasonable way to justify my insistence on remaining a fan of the Chicago Cubs.

Every decision that is made is based on some risk-reward probability that individuals try to calculate on the fly. Modern technology allows us to calculate those probabilities much quicker and with far greater accuracy. At PredictionMachine.com, we leverage that technology to make the most of the numbers.

I hope you enjoy PredictionMachine.com and I hope you enjoy this blog.

Thank you for your time.

- Paul Bessire

There will not be new predictions unveiled between the Super Bowl and the NCAA Tournament and MLB Preview in March, but the blog will continue to be updated frequently, so please keep checking back.

Print This Article
PREVIOUS ARTICLE
Future of Officiating (6/5/10)
NEXT ARTICLE
Site Updates (8/19/14)
Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

COMMENTS

SEARCH BLOGS

ARCHIVE

The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop.

10/20/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 13 - 19, one could find that all playable NFL against-the-spread picks went 9-2 (82% ATS). This includes the Week 7 NFL Lock of the Week, Arizona (-3.5) at Oakland that covered in a 24-13 win. The College Football Lock of the Week, Michigan State (-14) at Indiana, also covered the spread. Football Locks of the Week are 5-1 (83% ATS) in the last three weeks and are 102-58 (64% ATS) since the site launched in 2010.

With the first pitch of the World Series Tuesday night, don't miss out on any of the action as all normal or better MLB Playoff picks have gone 4-2 (67% ML, O/U and RL) this postseason and all playable picks have generated a +$559 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. All-time, in the MLB postseason, all "normal" or better baseball plays are now 29-11 (73% ML, O/U and RL).

And with the season starting in less than a week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

Recommended Features

LOGIN

LATEST ARTICLES

NFL Picks - Week 8
For Week 8 in the NFL, there are a total of 11 games with a playable against-the-spread pick, including three predicted outright upsets. See the Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints and more.

College Picks - Week 9
For Week 9 in the College Football, there are a total of ten plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, including three picks that cover more than 60% of the time and two predicted outright upsets. See West Virginia @ Oklahoma State and more.

FIND US ONLINE


Statistical Information Provided by: SportsData © 2012

All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.
Home | The Predictalator | Features | Privacy |  Customer Support |  Media Contact |  Sitemap
© 2010-2014 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com