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August MLB (8/31/11)

By Paul Bessire

Wednesday, August 31 at 8:40 PM ET
Did August fly by for everyone else? While much of my/our time has been focused on the new products and content (as well as videos!) for football, not to mention preparing for the upcoming basketball and hockey seasons, baseball has been rolling along at the same successful levels that we have seen since our last major engine update in late May (early June for run-lines). In this blog, we will cover all of those things: first, a look at our upcoming update and product schedule; second, a review of August MLB performance; and, lastly, a reminder of an app that can help you dominate your fantasy football drafts (in addition to the our projections).

Update/Product Schedule
With football nearing and other sports (maybe, in the NBA's case) coming up soon, here is our expected schedule for updated content and new product/sport addition:

  • Mondays - Fantasy football projections were just updated a few hours ago. Following the last NFL preseason games, we will publish our (next and) final fantasy football projections on Monday, September 5th. College football Power Rankings will be updated on Monday as well (as they will every week during the season). Generally, I will write and publish blogs on Mondays and I do intend to chime in weekly, but not all blogs will be as long/thorough as last season. Material covered in previous blogs from last season as well as the TrendFinder will be used to maintain records and relate strategies/expectations.
  • Tuesdays - Like we did this Tuesday with the college football picks, we will publish NFL Week 1 picks (Predictalator and Paul's Analysis) and fantasy projections next Tuesday, September 6th at noon ET. Going forward, NFL Power Rankings and NFL Playoff Probabilities will be updated on Tuesdays too.
  • Wednesdays at 8:00 PM ET (football) - Every Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET during the football season (including next Wednesday with college football), we will publish all college football and NFL picks, fantasy projections, NFL boxscores and additional analysis. Pick Availability Alerts will be sent out at 8:00 when the picks are published. As seen today with the Miami @ Maryland game, those emails will be sent when picks are updated due to roster changes, suspensions, injuries, etc. Please use the Customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer to account for line changes (noting the "last updated" time and date of such data).
  • College Basketball and NBA Picks - Our intent is to launch full season and weekly packages for both college basketball and the NBA when those seasons are set to begin. Obviously, this is contingent on the NBA resolving its current labor dispute, but we will be prepared. Watch for college basketball picks in the next couple of months.
  • NHL Picks - We have decided to take the same approach with NHL selections in 2011-12 as we did with college and pro basketball last season. While an engine has been built, we will use the first few months of the regular season to test the product and get acquainted with the NHL market. Then, soon after the Super Bowl, we intend to launch daily NHL selections leading up to and including the Stanley Cup Playoffs. As excited as we are and many of you may be for the hockey season, this is in everyone's best interest.

 

August MLB Performance Review:
As mentioned above, August (which technically concludes with tonight's games), has been a third strong month for us - profitable in just about every respect. The first week to ten days of the month were not as successful as we had consistently seen over June and July (that will happen simply due to randomness - especially in a sport with 2430 regular season games), but pick performance rebounded in the last few weeks and the numbers again look strong. Even in many of the ML games where luck broke against us, the run-lines have still come in successfully. Since our major RL update in June, those picks have been 58.2% accurate (303-217) and +$844. Here is a recap of the highlights for August (all dollar amounts are based on recommendations for a normal $50 player):

 

  • 58%, +$40 (11-8) "Normal" or better plays in August
  • 52%, +$299 (108-98) Return for all playable Money-Line plays in August
  • 56%, +$327 (162-130) Return for all playable Over/Under plays in August
  • 62%, +$528 (125-77) Return for all playable Run-Line plays in August

 

And here are the results since our last major updates in May (O/U, ML) and June (RL):

  • 66%, +$751 (39-20) "Normal" or better plays in June, July and August
  • 54%, +$1291 Return for all playable Money-Line plays in June, July and August
  • 56%, +$557 Return for all playable Over/Under plays in June, July and August
  • 58%, +$894 (178-140) Return for all playable Run-Line plays in June, July and August

 

As a reminder, the September MLB picks package is currently available in the Shop.

DrafOpt - Fantasy Football: And lastly, a shout-out to the guys who taught me just about everything I know...If you have an iPhone and are interested in fantasy football, I highly recommend DraftOpt.com and their iPhone app. We have yet to advertise any external products on the site, so it is important for me to clarify that that is not what I am doing here. I don't receive any personal benefit from this other than to know that I am matching a great new product with others who could use it. The three people behind the site and the product - PhDs Matt Gibson, Jeff Ohlmann and Mike Fry - are all good friends and respected members of the sports analysis field. Beyond that, I owe a great deal of my career to Dr. Ohlmann (University of Iowa) and Dr. Fry (University of Cincinnati), who served as my advisers for my Master's thesis on the NBA. I have the utmost respect that these individuals know what they are doing and are building a great product. So check out the site and the app if you are interested. There will be much more to come from DraftOpt.com as well.

As usual, if you have any of your own comments about this article or suggestions about how to improve the site, please do not hesitate to contact us at any time. We respond to every support contact as quickly as we can (usually within a few hours) and are very amenable to suggestions. I firmly believe that open communication with our customers and user feedback is the best way for us to grow and provide the types of products that will maximize the experience for all. Thank you in advance for your suggestions, comments and questions.

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10/27/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of October 20 - 26, one could find that highlighted, "normal" or better MLB picks went 2-0 to start the World Series and are now 31-11 (74% ML, O/U and RL) all-time. A normal $50 player using our play value recommendations would be +$747 during this MLB postseason.

In football, halftime picks were particularly strong. In Week 8 for the NFL, "normal" or better (and there are better) halftime picks went 7-1 (88% ATS and O/U). Combined NFL Week 8 and College Football Week 9 "normal" or better halftime picks hit 64% (ATS and O/U) and generated a profit of +$950 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Also, with a Central Michigan (-4) victory over Buffalo, 20-14, College Football Locks of the Week have covered in four straight weeks helping football Locks of the Week to a 103-59 (64% ATS) record all-time.

And with the season starting this week, highlighted, "normal" or better Over/Under Season Win Total Picks in the NBA are 24-13 (65% O/U) all-time. Meanwhile, for the 2013-14 NBA season, "normal" or better full game and halftime picks generated a $4,311 profit for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations, including hitting 59% on normal over/under plays.

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NFL Picks - Week 9
For Week 9 in the NFL, there are a total of six plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better, as well as a total of 11 playable against-the-spread picks. See Denver @ New England and more.

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For Week 10 in the College Football, there are a total of 13 plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better and four predicted outright upsets. See Stanford @ Oregon and more.

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