New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?

Intro to Bankroll Management (9/7/10)

Play Value Calculator and the Kelly Criterion
By Paul Bessire

Tuesday, September 7 at 11:18 AM ET
This will probably serve as the first of many discussions about optimal bankroll management as it relates to sports betting and, in particular, our Play Value Calculator recommendations.

I received several great questions through Support Contacts from some of our subscribers about our success metrics in units and how to use the Play Value Calculator.

We don't mind talking about "units" or actual dollars as we have to have some kind of baseline metric for our success. For instance, for a normal $50 player, our college against-the-spread (ATS) and Over/Under (O/U) picks using our Play Value Calculator recommendations were +$322 in the first weekend of college football. And just the plays mentioned as part of Paul's Top Picks were +$166. However, everything is relative. Everyone has different bankrolls, levels of risk aversion and comfortableness in how many different plays can be in place at one time.

To address the last point first, the true answer is all about the value available. A very general rule of thumb that we like to use is to play games above 60%. Sometimes there are several of these at one time and sometimes there may be none. Diversification can definitely be good because we've never seen a guaranteed game, but it only makes sense to play the games that return the most value. And it always makes sense to follow the Play Value Calculator's suggestions relative to wagers on multiple games at one time.

With respect to our expectations, in three years of tracking his NFL regular and post-season picks, I have accurately picked 59.7% (429 - 289 - 172) of ALL games against-the-spread, including hitting 78.3% (49-11-2) in the top plays of the week each week during football.

That being said, our expectation would be that the game has the likelihood of covering that our pick says. I don't mean that to sound too obvious or facetious. And, for what it's worth, our picks have generally lived up to that and more. That's just the best way to look at our picks. Even if picks with 60%+ confidence have hit at a rate well above that, the next 60%+ play is only expected to be as accurate as it's cover percentage. The play value recommendations with our confidence are essentially our conservative take on the "Kelly Criterion."

The Kelly Criterion assumes a bettor knows how accurate he is. But, even if a bettor is normally 60% accurate, it doesn't necessarily mean that that accuracy applies to the next pick.

That's where our confidence through the cover percentages comes in. We know exactly how often the pick covers in our simulations.

We recommend normal plays of 1-3% of your bankroll. "Normal plays" start at about 57% and everything revolves around that with the Play Value Calculator. "Weak" plays would typically mean less than 1% of a bankroll. When played individually, 2X and 3X plays could be between 2-9% depending on what is a comfortable Normal play for the wagerer.

When multiple plays are in place at one time, that changes the equation a little bit because that eats into more of the bankroll at that time. We allow this to be considered in the Play Value Calculator.

We say it is a conservative take on the Kelly Criterion because we need to better account for the market and its take on each pick (not an original approach - as most would suggest that the Kelly Criterion is a little more aggressive than "optimal").

And, as usual, please be conscious of lines with every picks. Especially early in the season, lines can change significantly and frequently so it is important to be sure that plays are appropriate to the line. This is why we offer the Customizable Predictalator to run games using any line and see our updated picks.

I hope that helps and I'm sure we will revisit this topic again. Please do not hesitate to contact me with any questions through a Support Contact.

Print This Article
NEXT ARTICLE
NFL Rookie of the Year (08/21/14)
Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

COMMENTS

SEARCH BLOGS

ARCHIVE

Ad

The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home field advantage) and weather in each game.

8/25/2014 Highlight: The college football season starts this Thursday. Predictalator picks and analysis will be available on Tuesday, August 26th at 8:00 pm ET (a day earlier than usual for Week 1 of college football an the NFL). Using the ResultsFinder college football historically, one could find that this technology is over 65% against-the-spread all-time with College Football Locks of the Week (31-14, 69% ATS), including going 14-2 (88% ATS) for the 2013 season. Also, presenting some of the best and most consistent value on the site, highlighted, "normal" or better (greater than 57% confidence to cover) college football Over/Under game picks are 245-168 (59% O/U) all-time.

With the NFL kicking off in earnest the following week, it's worth noting that this technology is over 60% against-the-spread with NFL Locks of the Week (52-32 ATS), 55% ATS (551-442 ATS) picking all NFL games, and over 60% ATS and Over/Under (50-33 ATS and O/U) with highlighted NFL picks all-time with greater than 60% confidence. Last season, picking every NFL game, the Predictalator hit 57.4% ATS, then went 9-1-1 (90% ATS) in the postseason. And finally, the Predictalator is now 35-9 against-the-spread in NFL playoff games.

Recommended Features

LOGIN

LATEST ARTICLES

NFL QB Value
How would NFL landscape shift if Brock Osweiler were starting instead of Peyton Manning? Which rookie quarterbacks should start? See results of every backup QB starting 16 games.

Win Total Picks - 2014 NFL Preview
Over/Under Season Win Total picks are now available for all 32 NFL teams.

FIND US ONLINE


Statistical Information Provided by: SportsData © 2012

All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.
Home | The Predictalator | Features | Privacy |  Customer Support |  Media Contact |  Sitemap |  Job Opportunities
© 2010-2014 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com