New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?

Intro to Bankroll Management (9/7/10)

Play Value Calculator and the Kelly Criterion
By Paul Bessire

Tuesday, September 7 at 11:18 AM ET
This will probably serve as the first of many discussions about optimal bankroll management as it relates to sports betting and, in particular, our Play Value Calculator recommendations.

I received several great questions through Support Contacts from some of our subscribers about our success metrics in units and how to use the Play Value Calculator.

We don't mind talking about "units" or actual dollars as we have to have some kind of baseline metric for our success. For instance, for a normal $50 player, our college against-the-spread (ATS) and Over/Under (O/U) picks using our Play Value Calculator recommendations were +$322 in the first weekend of college football. And just the plays mentioned as part of Paul's Top Picks were +$166. However, everything is relative. Everyone has different bankrolls, levels of risk aversion and comfortableness in how many different plays can be in place at one time.

To address the last point first, the true answer is all about the value available. A very general rule of thumb that we like to use is to play games above 60%. Sometimes there are several of these at one time and sometimes there may be none. Diversification can definitely be good because we've never seen a guaranteed game, but it only makes sense to play the games that return the most value. And it always makes sense to follow the Play Value Calculator's suggestions relative to wagers on multiple games at one time.

With respect to our expectations, in three years of tracking his NFL regular and post-season picks, I have accurately picked 59.7% (429 - 289 - 172) of ALL games against-the-spread, including hitting 78.3% (49-11-2) in the top plays of the week each week during football.

That being said, our expectation would be that the game has the likelihood of covering that our pick says. I don't mean that to sound too obvious or facetious. And, for what it's worth, our picks have generally lived up to that and more. That's just the best way to look at our picks. Even if picks with 60%+ confidence have hit at a rate well above that, the next 60%+ play is only expected to be as accurate as it's cover percentage. The play value recommendations with our confidence are essentially our conservative take on the "Kelly Criterion."

The Kelly Criterion assumes a bettor knows how accurate he is. But, even if a bettor is normally 60% accurate, it doesn't necessarily mean that that accuracy applies to the next pick.

That's where our confidence through the cover percentages comes in. We know exactly how often the pick covers in our simulations.

We recommend normal plays of 1-3% of your bankroll. "Normal plays" start at about 57% and everything revolves around that with the Play Value Calculator. "Weak" plays would typically mean less than 1% of a bankroll. When played individually, 2X and 3X plays could be between 2-9% depending on what is a comfortable Normal play for the wagerer.

When multiple plays are in place at one time, that changes the equation a little bit because that eats into more of the bankroll at that time. We allow this to be considered in the Play Value Calculator.

We say it is a conservative take on the Kelly Criterion because we need to better account for the market and its take on each pick (not an original approach - as most would suggest that the Kelly Criterion is a little more aggressive than "optimal").

And, as usual, please be conscious of lines with every picks. Especially early in the season, lines can change significantly and frequently so it is important to be sure that plays are appropriate to the line. This is why we offer the Customizable Predictalator to run games using any line and see our updated picks.

I hope that helps and I'm sure we will revisit this topic again. Please do not hesitate to contact me with any questions through a Support Contact.

Print This Article
NEXT ARTICLE
NFL Trends Week 13 (11/26/14)
Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

COMMENTS

SEARCH BLOGS

ARCHIVE

Ad

The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop.

11/24/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of November 17th - 23rd, one could find that all highlighted college football "normal" or better plays went 6-3 (67% ATS and O/U), highlighted by the Lock of the Week, Appalachian State (+10 vs. LA-Lafayette), winning outright, 35-16, to cover by four touchdowns. The Lock of the Week has won seven of the last eight weeks and is 22-7 (77% ATS) in the last two seasons. Against-the-spread, "normal" or better halftime plays in college football also were solid going 4-2 (67% ATS).

While there have only been three "normal" NFL ATS full game picks in the last two weeks, normal or better NFL against-the-spread halftimes have provided additional value by going 6-1 (86% ATS) in Week 11 and Week 12. Over the last six weeks, all playable full game against-the-spread NFL picks are 39-26 (60% ATS). In that same stretch, "normal or better halftime picks in the NFL are 17-8 (68% ATS). All halftime picks are free for the week!

Finally, in the NBA, all "normal" or better picks went 5-3 (63% ATS and O/U). And, on the ice, all normal NHL plays stayed strong once again returning a profit for the fourth straight week. In the last four weeks, all normal or better NHL picks are 66-44 (60% ML, O/U and PL).

Recommended Features

LOGIN

LATEST ARTICLES

NFL Picks - Week 13
For Week 13 in the NFL, there are a total of 12 playable against-the-spread picks, including all three games on Thanksgiving day as well as 11 playable totals. See Thanksgiving Day games and more.

College Picks - Week 14
For Week 14 in College Football, there are a total of nine plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better as well as five predicted outright upsets. See Mississippi State @ Ole Miss and more.

FIND US ONLINE


Statistical Information Provided by: SportsData © 2012

All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.
Home | The Predictalator | Features | Privacy |  Customer Support |  Media Contact |  Sitemap
© 2010-2014 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com