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New Football Products (7/27/11)

By Paul Bessire

Monday, July 27 at 12:00 AM ET
Football is back at PredictionMachine.com. While owners and players were busy haggling over their billions and college programs were equally as busy dodging from NCAA infractions, we were hard at work building new products, adding new content and upgrading existing applications to make the site as beneficial to you as possible. Picks packages are now available in the shop, but we wanted to use this space to outline the many new features and upgrades that we are making available for the 2011 season.

Before we get into all of the new tools for the 2011 season, let's take a quick look back at the numbers for last season (our first in existence as PredictionMachine.com - I also recommend checking out some of the blogs from last year starting with the Season Recap):

  • ATS Locks of the Week: 28-12-1 (70%)
  • Daily Top ATS Plays: 73-36-1 (67%)
  • Paul's Picks ATS: 98-63 (61%)
  • ATS - All Playable Games: 56%
  • O/U - All Playable Games: 55%
  • SU (NFL and FBS vs. FBS College): 73%
  • All-Time ATS NFL Playoffs: 12-0 (100%)

In mid-February, I also took a deeper look at the overall NFL season noting the following: Including the playoffs, but excluding Week 17 (where we warned against playing many of the games), we finished 117-90 ATS (57%) with ALL playable games against-the-spread. Picks with 60%+ confidence went 46-30 ATS (61%). All playable totals went 103-83 O/U (55%), with 60%+ totals going 16-8 O/U (67%). Please contact us if you would like to see other numbers.

2011 Football Season Features

Updated Customizable Predictalator:
What it is: The Customizable Predictalator allows you to change factors of a game before you play it 50,000 times. NEW for the 2011 football season is the ability to play multiple games at the same time to cut down on time as well as evaluate parlays. Simply change the number of games from "1" to the number of games you would like to review to see more results. To analyze parlays, check the Analyze Parlay box and then select the picks you are considering for your parlay in the results boxes.
Who can use it: One free pick for each sport is always available. Access to all games is open to subscribers (weekly, monthly or season-long only).

New Play Analyzer:
What it is: The Play Analyzer allows you to quickly and efficiently evaluate a series of games based on select criteria. It is the ultimate money management tool, combining the thoroughness of the Predictalator's Picks articles with the flexibility and relevance of the Customizable Predictalator. The Play Analyzer allows subscribers to review results of all picks or a subset of picks in one color-coded table in order of value. Plays can be loaded with original lines or the current consensus lines for the sport. After loading the picks, all lines can be modified with the games re-played at one time.
Who can use it: Only published dates for which one is a subscriber will appear.

League Schedules:
What it is: League Schedules for NFL and college football, including our published lines and the actual results, for all current, upcoming and past weeks of the 2011 regular season are now available on the site.
Who can use it: Everyone can access league schedule pages.

Team Schedules:
What it is: 2011 Team Schedules for each NFL and college football team, including SU, ATS, O/U records overall, home and away are now available on the site.
Who can use it: Everyone can access team schedule pages.

Team Rankings:
What it is: Building upon our traditional Power Rankings concept Team Rankings pages will allow subscribers to view our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency rankings for all NFL and college football teams in the following categories: Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency, Offensive Rush Efficiency, Offensive Pass Efficiency, Defensive Rush Efficiency, Defensive Pass Efficiency.
Who can use it: While everyone will retain the ability to see our weekly Power Rankings, registered users will get to see our general Offensive and Defensive Efficiency rankings and weekly and season-long subscribers will be able to see our efficiency rankings for all categories.

NFL Playoff Probabilities: (launching in mid-August)
What it is: Launching with the NFL Playoff Preview (under Team Schedules in the Data dropdown), each week, we will simulate the rest of the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times to provide up-to-date projected records, standings, playoff probabilities and odds to win the Super Bowl for each team in the NFL.
Who can use it: Everyone can access NFL playoff probabilities pages.

Preseason Previews:
What it is: The college football (next week) and NFL (mid-August - after player movement settles and preseason games begin) preseason previews will again include projected records and standings, playoff probabilities, power rankings, fantasy projections (NFL only), most likely post-season scenarios and Over/Under win total picks with confidence. This year, only full-season subscribers will have access to the Over/Under win total picks. Similar picks for last season provided for the NFL and college football, most notably in the NFL where the top five picks all covered.
Who can use it: Everyone can access everything except for the Over/Under Win Total picks with confidence, which will only be available to full-season subscribers.

TrendFinder:
What it is: The TrendFinder will be a very useful tool for those looking to get the most out of this site by tracking the success of teams in certain circumstances as well as the success of the Predictalator. We have built and tested this application to the best of our abilities in the preseason and hope that, if all goes well early in the season, we will be able to launch it early into the football season with up-to-date 2011 performance results.
Who can use it: Everyone will be able access the TrendFinder database.

College Football Picks:
What it is: There is one notable update to the college football engine this year. Based on the research that we conducted and implemented during the college basketball season, we have updated the college football engine to consider team consistency when evaluating pick confidence. Our Locks of the Week that involved two BCS-AQ teams went 6-0 ATS this year. If our Locks of the Week had just been our top play between two BCS-AQ schools last year, we would have been 12-4 ATS through the bowls, which is even better than we were. This tweak should emphasize that point.

In addition to these new features, we will continue to publish weekly Predictalator SU, ATS and O/U picks with confidence for every NFL and college football (FBS vs. FBS) game, Paul's Picks analysis for the top three ATS Saturday and Sunday plays as well as the Monday night game and the best weekday ATS college pick, fantasy rankings and projections for the NFL, college and NFL Power Rankings and a weekly (though likely abbreviated relative to last year because we will also be publishing daily MLB plays and will likely have NHL, NBA and college basketball content again as well) blog entry recapping the action. Get the edge you need for this football season. Lock in now as a Full-Season Subscriber to get our best value of the year.

As usual, if you have any of your own comments about this article or suggestions about how to improve the site, please do not hesitate to contact us at any time. We respond to every support contact as quickly as we can (usually within a few hours) and are very amenable to suggestions. I firmly believe that open communication with our customers and user feedback is the best way for us to grow and provide the types of products that will maximize the experience for all. Thank you in advance for your suggestions, comments and questions.

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9/15/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of September 8-14, one could find that all playable NFL Week 2 against-the-spread plays, led by our Lock of the Week (Houston -3, which covered by two touchdowns) went 7-6 (54% ATS), while all playable halftime sides went 8-4 (67% ATS). In college football's Week 3, all playable picks for the week went 43-31 (58% ATS and O/U). In the last two weeks, all playable college football picks are 77-54 (59% ATS and O/U). Baseball picks continue to cash as all highlighted, "normal" MLB plays went 10-7 (59% ML, O/U, and RL). In the last two weeks all normal MLB plays are 16-10 (62% ML, O/U, and RL).

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