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    NFL Trends Week 13 (11/26/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NFL Week 13 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    Week 13 – Situational Trends

    In the last 10 years, favorites on Thanksgiving are: 20-7-1 (74% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Lions (-7) vs. Bears, Cowboys (-3) vs. Eagles and 49ers (-1.5) vs. Seahawks.

    In the last 10 years, home teams on Thanksgiving are 12-15-1 (44% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Lions (-7) vs. Bears, Cowboys (-3) vs. Eagles and 49ers (-1.5) vs. Seahawks.

    In the last 10 years, home favorites on Thanksgiving are 10-5 (67% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Lions (-7) vs. Bears, Cowboys (-3) vs. Eagles and 49ers (-1.5) vs. Seahawks.

    NFL Trends – Week 13
    Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

    Team Spread Trend
    ATL +2.5 vs. AZ Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as home dogs are 8-4-1 (67% ATS).
    AZ -2.5 @ ATL All-time, the Cardinals are road favorites are 26-19-1 (58% ATS).
    BAL -5 vs. SD Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens following a Monday Night Football game are 3-5 straight-up and ATS.
    BUF -2 vs. CLE All-time, following a game on Monday Night Football, the Bills as home favorites are 15-2 (88%) straight-up.
    CAR +3 @ MIN Since 2011, the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as road underdogs are 12-7-1 (63% ATS).
    CHI +7 @ DET Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears on any day but Sunday are 9-6 (60% ATS), 30-44-3 (41% ATS) on Sundays.
    CIN -4 @ TB All-time against the Buccaneers the Bengals are 2-7 straight-up.
    CLE +2 @ BUF Since 20002, the Browns on the road against the AFC East are 7-5 (58% ATS).
    DAL -3 vs. PHI Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys on Thanksgiving are 5-3 (80% ATS).
    DEN -1 @ KC Since 2012, the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as road favorites against the AFC West are 5-1 ATS.
    DET -7 vs. CHI In the last 10 years, the Lions on Thanksgiving are 1-8-1 (11% ATS).
    GB -3 vs. NE All-time, the Packers as home favorites in November or later in the season are 64-42-5 (60% ATS).
    HOU -6.5 vs. TEN All-time, against the Titans, the Texans are 10-15 (40%) straight-up.
    IND -9.5 vs. WAS Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as favorites of a touchdown or more are 5-1 (63%) straight-up and 4-2 (67% ATS).
    JAX +2.5 vs. NYG All-time, the Jaguars as home underdogs are 29-37-1 (44% ATS).
    KC 1 vs. DEN All-time, the Chiefs as home underdogs are 61-32-4 (66% ATS).
    MIA -5.5 @ NYJ In the last 20 games on Monday Night Football, the Dolphins are 7-12-1 ATS including losing 5 straight against-the-spread.
    MIN -3 vs. CAR All-time, the Vikings facing an opponent coming off a bye are 12-15 (44% ATS).
    NE +3 @ GB All-time, in games with a total of 58 points or higher, the over is 10-4 (71% OVER).
    NO +3 @ PIT Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints following a game on Monday Night Football are 9-5 (64% ATS).
    NYG -2.5 @ JAX All-time, road favorites in Jacksonville are 37-29-1 (56% ATS).
    NYJ +5.5 vs. MIA Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs on Monday Night Football are 32-42 (43% ATS).
    OAK +7 @ STL In the last 5 years, the Raiders following a win are 6-17 (26%) straight-up.
    PHI +3 @ DAL Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Eagles as underdogs in Dallas are 5-2 (71% ATS).
    PIT -3 vs. NO Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers following a bye week are 8-2 straight-up and 6-4 ATS.
    SD +5 @ BAL Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road dogs of 3 or more points are 14-9-2 (61% ATS).
    SEA +1.5 @ SF Since 2002, when Seattle joined the NFC West, against the 49ers the Seahawks are 15-9-1 (63% ATS).
    SF -1.5 vs. SEA All-time, the 49ers on Thursday Night Football are 6-2 (75%) straight-up.
    STL -7 vs. OAK In the last 20 games as favorites of 7 or more points the Rams are 6-14 (30% ATS).
    TB +4 vs. CIN All-time, the NFC South against the AFC North is 51-67-4 (43% ATS).
    TEN +6.5 @ HOU In the last 20 games against their AFC South brethren, the Titans are 4-15-1 (21% ATS).
    WAS +9.5 @ IND Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Redskins as dogs of 9 or more points are 10-7-1 (59% ATS).

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    11/24/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of November 17th - 23rd, one could find that all highlighted college football "normal" or better plays went 6-3 (67% ATS and O/U), highlighted by the Lock of the Week, Appalachian State (+10 vs. LA-Lafayette), winning outright, 35-16, to cover by four touchdowns. The Lock of the Week has won seven of the last eight weeks and is 22-7 (77% ATS) in the last two seasons. Against-the-spread, "normal" or better halftime plays in college football also were solid going 4-2 (67% ATS).

    While there have only been three "normal" NFL ATS full game picks in the last two weeks, normal or better NFL against-the-spread halftimes have provided additional value by going 6-1 (86% ATS) in Week 11 and Week 12. Over the last six weeks, all playable full game against-the-spread NFL picks are 39-26 (60% ATS). In that same stretch, "normal or better halftime picks in the NFL are 17-8 (68% ATS). All halftime picks are free for the week!

    Finally, in the NBA, all "normal" or better picks went 5-3 (63% ATS and O/U). And, on the ice, all normal NHL plays stayed strong once again returning a profit for the fourth straight week. In the last four weeks, all normal or better NHL picks are 66-44 (60% ML, O/U and PL).

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    NFL Picks - Week 13
    For Week 13 in the NFL, there are a total of 12 playable against-the-spread picks, including all three games on Thanksgiving day as well as 11 playable totals. See Thanksgiving Day games and more.

    College Picks - Week 14
    For Week 14 in College Football, there are a total of nine plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better as well as five predicted outright upsets. See Mississippi State @ Ole Miss and more.


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