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    NFL Trends Week 12 (11/25/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine

    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Week 12 – Situational Trends

    In the last ten years, favorites of a touchdown or more on Thanksgiving are 10-2 against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Packers (-9) vs. Bears.

    In the last ten years, home underdogs on Thanksgiving are 2-9-1 against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Lions (Pick'em) vs. Eagles

    Since 1978, twelve teams have started a season 10-0, 75 percent (9-3 straight-up) of them have won their next game.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-3) at Broncos and Panthers (-1) at Cowboys.

    NFL Trends – Week 12
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)

    powered by Trend Machine

    Teams Spread
    ATL -2 vs. MIN In Matt Ryan's career, the Falcons are 19-11-2 against-the-spread following a loss.
    AZ -10.5 @ SF All-time, the Cardinals have only been favorites of 10 or more points eight times, Arizona is 2-6 ATS in those games.
    BAL +2.5 @ CLE Matt Schaub was a starter last in 2013 when he went 2-6 straight-up and 1-6-1 ATS.
    BUF +5 @ KC In the last ten games as road underdogs, the Bills are 7-3 against-the-spread.
    CAR -1 @ DAL All-time, favorites in Dallas are 28-37-1 (43%) against-the-spread.
    CHI +9 @ GB In the last twenty years, the Bears have played on Thanksgiving four times. Chicago has been an underdog in each game and has won outright all four times.
    CIN -9 vs. STL In his career, Andy Dalton is 10-2-1 straight-up as a favorite of a touchdown or more but is 6-6-1 ATS in those games.
    CLE -2.5 vs. BAL In the last ten games the Browns have been favorites. Cleveland is 2-8 against-the-spread.
    DAL +1 vs. CAR In the last twenty years, the Cowboys have not be favored on Thanksgiving five times, they went 1-4 straight-up in those games.
    DEN +3 vs. NE The last twenty teams to be home underdogs against the Patriots went 12-8 against-the-spread.
    DET Pick'em vs. PHI The Lions are 2-8 straight-up the last ten years on Thanksgiving and 2-7-1 against-the-spread.
    GB -9 vs. CHI Since 2000, the Packers have been favorites on Thanksgivings five times, Green Bay is 1-4 against-the-spread in those games.
    HOU -3 vs. NO Until Sunday, the Texans hadn't won three games in a row since 2012. All-time Houston is 5-2 straight-up in the next game following a three game winning streak.
    IND -3 vs. TB Matt Hasselbeck is one of three quarterbacks that are undefeated this season with at least two starts. The 40-year old will try to go to 4-0 Sunday.
    JAX -4 vs. SD Jacksonville is 7-3 against-the-spread in its last ten games as a favorite.
    KC -5 vs. BUF In the last ten games as home favorites, the Chiefs are 7-3 ATS.
    MIA +3.5 @ NYJ In his career, Ryan Tannehill as a road underdog against the AFC East is 2-6 straight-up and against-the-spread.
    MIN +2 @ ATL In the last ten games following a matchup against their rival Packers, Minnesota has gone 6-4 ATS.
    NE -3 @ DEN Following a game on Monday Night Football, Tom Brady is 12-6-1 against-the-spread.
    NO +3 @ HOU Drew Brees has covered six straight games when coming off a bye.
    NYG -2 @ WAS The Giants need to keep winning to make the playoffs. Eli Manning is 7-3 straight-up all-time coming out of a bye.
    NYJ -3.5 vs. MIA In the last twenty games, the Jets as home favorites against the AFC East are 5-14-1 ATS.
    OAK -2 @ TEN In the last twenty years, the Raiders as road favorites are 13-21-1 ATS.
    PHI Pick'em @ DET The Eagles are 6-0 straight-up all-time on Thanksgiving, in games we have data for, Philly is 3-0 ATS in those games.
    PIT +4.5 @ SEA In the last ten years, coming out of a bye, the Steelers are 7-3 straight-up.
    SD +4 @ JAX In Philip Rivers' career, when the Chargers are on a losing streak (two or more games), San Diego has gone 10-17-1 ATS in the next contest.
    SEA -4.5 vs. PIT All-time, the Seahawks at home facing a team coming out of a bye week are 8-4 ATS.
    SF +10.5 vs. AZ All-time, the 49ers have been home dogs of 10 or more points seven times, San Francisco is 1-6 straight-up in those games.
    STL +9 @ CIN In the last five years, the Rams as road underdogs of a touchdown or more are 8-13-1 ATS.
    TB +3 @ IND In the last twenty years, the Bucs are 1-4 straight-up and against-the-spread when they play the Colts.
    TEN +2 vs. OAK The Titans have lost 15 straight games as home underdogs.
    WAS +2 vs. NYG The Redskins are 7-12-1 ATS in their last twenty games against the Giants.

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    The Predictalator

    11/23/2015 Highlight: In the NBA, playable against-the-spread picks went 17-14 (55% ATS) last week. Such picks are 66-50 (57% ATS) in the month of November, while highlighted, "normal" or better NBA plays are 16-10 (62% ATS) for the month. Continuing that success on the hardwood, as with football, sides have been consistently solid in the pros, while totals are consistently better in college. College basketball "normal" or better over/under plays (greater than 57% to cover) went 11-8 (58% O/U) over the last week.

    Check out the Shop or Individual Picks pages now to learn more.

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