Play Analyzer - View Updated Picks on Current Consensus Lines
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
For baseball wagering tips, please see the MLB Betting Strategy Blog. If you are getting a different line than our projection or you are interested in teaser plays or other exotics that use different lines, we've got you covered. Simply access the Customizable Predictalator or the Play Analyzer, which allows you to run actual, future or totally hypothetical games while being able to input your own against-the-spread and over/under lines. Also, to know who we project to be OUT of each game, check out our injuries information.
In sports wagering, money management is critical. Knowing the likelihood of success of any play you make (SU, RL, O/U, or even Futures, Parlays, Teasers or other exotics) is of utmost importance – not just for deciding what to wager on, but how much. By playing the game 50,000 times before it's actually played, all of our picks come with a specified level of confidence (no dimes, no stars – just the facts) and a Play Value Key, Play Value Calculator and Parlay Calculator (explained below) to decipher exactly what that means to you. Please note that money-line picks are ordered by value, which is based on the relationship between the Predictalator's projected Straight-Up winning percentage and the Straight-Up winning percentage needed to justify a pick. Since when wagering on a favorite, it costs more to win less and vice versa with underdogs, determining the SU% needed for a favorite can be calculated by taking the absolute value of the odds divided by 100 + the absolute value of the odds. For underdogs, the necessary percentage is 100 divided by odds. For instance, if the Texas Rangers are -156 favorites over the Seattle Mariners who are at +145, Texas must win more than 60.9% (or 156/256) to justify a play on the Rangers. If Seattle wins more than 40.8% (or 100/245), the Mariners have value. If neither wins at those rates or higher, it is a “no pick” because neither team has value. The gap between the projected SU% and the necessary SU% dictates our confidence in that pick and is used in the Play Value Calculator to determine the optimal wager amount for that pick. If the wager amount for a normal $50 player (the default setting) is $1-$49, this is a “weak” pick. If it is between $50-$99, it is considered a "normal" pick. Between $100-$149 is 2X normal pick and anything stronger than that is considered 3X normal pick.
The Play Value Key:
Given the winning percentages listed as our confidence for each pick, all plays are not created equal. Each against-the-spread and over/under play is color-coded to aid in play value decision making. All play values are relative to what we consider a "normal play." As a generally conservative rule of thumb, typical wagers should be 1-3% of one's bankroll. A normal play should never exceed 5% of one's bankroll and the combined plays for one day should not exceed half of one's bankroll. The Play Value Key on the right side of the page explains the colors. If the play is listed as '3X Normal Play' that means that it is very strong and worth wagering three times the value of a normal play. The key is fairly conservative with general rules of thumb and ignores other plays made that day. As noted, the percentages in the key relate to the confidence needed to evaluate picks at -110 odds. We still color-code money-line picks with different odds than -110 for value based on the expected recommendation from the Play Value Calculator on a normal play of $50. For more specific recommendations, please use the Play Value Calculator. Content is for informational purposes only and all decisions are completely up to the individual.
The Play Value Calculator:
Using the Play Value Calculator is a more exact approach to understanding the value of a pick based on its expected win percentage. Clicking on 'Calc' next to any pick will automatically load that pick into the Play Value Calculator. Then, to get the most accurate recommendation possible, please enter your normal play value, how many overlapping plays you are making and the odds you are getting on the play. If you have overlapping plays, you can choose the "Standard" recommendation which assumes that all other plays are exactly "normal" or you can choose "Advanced" recommendations, which will allow you to enter all plays by clicking on "Calc" next to each and see the optimal play value recommendations for each based your criteria. As a generally conservative rule of thumb, typical wagers should be 1-3% of one's bankroll. A normal play should never exceed 5% of one's bankroll and the combined plays for one day should not exceed half of one's bankroll. Odds are assumed to be -110, meaning that a loss requires paying out an additional 10% or that you need to risk $110 to win $100. Often times, odds will be "juiced" (the 10% in -110 is the juice) even further on specific spread lines to +/-150 or more. Also, money-lines are strictly based on odds so it is important to understand value. If the odds are -110, 52.38% confidence is needed (i.e. 110/210) to justify play. However, if the odds are -250, 71.43% confidence (250/350) is needed to justify the play. And if the odds are in your favor at plus number like +250, where a $100 wager can win $250, just 28.57% confidence is needed to justify the play. In that last example, if our projection is that the +250 underdog wins 33.33% of the time, it is important to note that the play would only win one-third of the time; yet the payout is great enough that if one-out-of-every-three of those plays hits, the play will be profitable. Click 'Calculate' to see the value to wager for your play on that game. Content is for informational purposes only and all decisions are completely up to the individual.
The Parlay Calculator:
Our Parlay Calculator is unique. Traditional Parlay Calculators may provide the straight-line payout odds. You should be able to get any of that information relative to your picks from your linesmaker. Instead, we think it is more valuable to calculate your actual likelihood of success on a parlay. To use the calculator, click on the Show Parlay Calculator toggle and choose the number of games you are interested in playing. Add RL or O/U percentages from the picks by clicking 'Calc' (as you would for the Play Value Calculator). Once you have added all of the games you are interested in, click 'Calculate' to see your Parlay Success and Payout Needed. The Parlay Success is the likelihood that each of these picks will cover. The Payout Needed expresses that value relative to payouts. As long as the payout odds you receive from are greater than or equal to the Payout Needed, the Parlay is an acceptable play. Since payouts are done on a straight-line odds basis, the Payout Needed from a combination of our playable picks will almost always yield an acceptable play. Everything is relative, however. Please note the Parlay Success value. With up to ten teams in a parlay, exotic plays like this will almost never be expected to win. We provide this information to set realistic expectations for parlay plays and to aid in comparing the relative differences between expected payout from the play and the possible payout. Content is for informational purposes only and all decisions are completely up to the individual.