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    Player vs Player Props (1/29/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Super Bowl Player vs. Player Props – last year all Player vs. Player and Cross Sport Props went 11-7 (61% ATS). All projected stats are averages from the 50,000 games played of Super Bowl XLVIII. All props courtesy of Bovada.LV.

    PredictionMachine.com is also proud to present our second annual Props Pick'em contest. An innovative and FREE contest, Props Pick'em asks you to select answers to 48 props for the upcoming NFL title game in New Jersey. The top 50 point scorers will share in the prize pool of $7,000 in site credits, including $2,000 to the overall contest winner and everyone who participates will earn free site credits.



    Manning vs. Wilson

    Who will have more Passing Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
    Russell Wilson  SEA QB 80.5
    Peyton Manning DEN QB -80.5
     
    Manning broke the records for most passing yards and touchdowns in a single season but Richard Sherman and the Seattle defense are No. 1 in defensive passing efficiency. We are projecting Manning to throw for 6.7 yards-per-pass in the Super Bowl, well below his season average of 8.3 yards-per-pass.
     
    Projected Yards: Manning 241.3, Wilson 221.8

    Pick: Wilson +80.5

    Manning vs. Wilson
     
    Who will have more Completions in the game? Team Position Spread
    Russell Wilson  SEA QB 9.5
    Peyton Manning DEN QB -9.5

    The edge in this prop bet is the advantage that Seattle’s pass offense has on Denver’s pass defense. The Broncos are below league average in sack rate (6.3%) and interception rate (2.8%). The Broncos do not have an active player in their secondary that grades as an above average player at his position.
     
    Projected Completions: Manning 22.7, Wilson 16.5

    Pick: Wilson +9.5

    Lynch vs. Moreno
     
    Who will have more Rushing Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
    Marshawn Lynch SEA RB -25.5
    Knowshon Moreno DEN RB 25.5

    Denver is No. 9 in defensive rushing efficiency; the Broncos allowed just 3.9 yards-per-carry in the regular season. We anticipate Moreno to outgain Lynch on a per play basis.
     
    Projected Yards: Lynch 83.6, Moreno 63.9

    Pick: Moreno +25.5

    Wilson vs. Ball
     
    Who will have more Rushing Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
    Russell Wilson  SEA QB 2.5
    Montee Ball DEN RB -2.5

    Montee Ball averaged 4.7 yards-per-carry in the regular season but over Denver’s last ten games, including the playoffs, his average has increased to 5.8 yards-per-carry.
     
    Projected Yards: Wilson 27.8, Ball 37.8

    Pick: Ball -2.5

    Kearse vs. Caldwell
     
    Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
    Jermaine Kearse SEA WR -10.5
    Andre Caldwell DEN WR 10.5

    Caldwell is an afterthought in one of the greatest passing offenses in league history; he was targeted one or fewer times in twelve of Denver’s 18 games this season. Kearse was targeted at least three times in eight games this season averaging more than 31 yards receiving in those games.
     
    Projected Yards: Kearse 34.9, Caldwell 6.7

    Pick: Kearse -10.5

    Tate vs. Thomas
     
    Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
    Golden Tate SEA WR 25.5
    Demaryius Thomas DEN WR -25.5

    Demaryius Thomas is Manning’s best weapon but Richard Sherman most likely will be covering Thomas for most of the game. Sherman was first among all cornerbacks in opposing passer ratings this season per Pro Football Focus. Manning likes to look for mismatches in the opposing secondary, challenging Sherman would be a mistake.
     
    Projected Yards: Tate 51.1, Thomas 62.9

    Pick: Tate +25.5

    Baldwin vs. Welker
     
    Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
    Doug Baldwin SEA WR 12.5
    Wes Welker DEN WR -12.5

    This is another play on the Seattle passing defense. This is the one of two props where we project the player getting points to outgain his opponent.
     
    Projected Yards: Welker 42.8, Baldwin 48.8

    Pick: Baldwin +12.5

    Lynch vs. Moreno
     
    Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game? Team Position Spread
    Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 9.5
    Knowshon Moreno DEN RB -9.5

    Moreno was 5th among all running backs with 548 yards receiving and he had a career high 60 receptions this season. It probably isn’t a surprise to you given our ranking of Seattle's pass defense but the Seahawks were 2nd in DVOA vs. running backs this season.
     
    Projected Yards: Lynch 18.6, Moreno 14.4

    Pick: Lynch +9.5
     
     
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