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    NFL Playoff Odds

    Last Updated: 1/16/2017


    The
    Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats, to play, one play at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any remaining level of the NFL Playoffs. Each entire NFL Playoffs is played individually, with the team that wins each game advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

    In the most likely Super Bowl, the New England Patriots win over the Atlanta Falcons by an average score of 30-27. The Patriots are 34.8% likely to win the Super Bowl, up just 0.3% from last week. New England and Atlanta combine for 61% of all championships.

    Check out these results for the rest of the 2017 NFL postseason simulated 50,000 times. Below, we talk about injury impacts and some interesting notes from the simulations.

    NFL Super Bowl Odds (based on 2017 NFL Playoffs played 50,000 times):

    Region Seed Team Super Bowl Champ.
    AFC 1 NE 62.3% 34.8%
    AFC 2 PIT 37.7% 18.9%
    Region Seed Team Super Bowl Champ.
    NFC 1 ATL 55.4% 26.2%
    NFC 2 GB 44.6% 20.1%



    Additional Notes

    • Led by the Patriots, the AFC is 53.7% likely to win the Super Bowl.
    • Most likely Super Bowl - Atlanta vs. New England - happens just 34.5% of the time.
    • Least likely Super Bowl - Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh - happens 16.8% of the time in 50,000 simulations
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