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NFL Preview: Standings and Stats

(last updated on 8/15/11)
Last Updated: 8/19/2014 10:04 PM ET

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The Predictalator has already played the 2011 NFL season 50,000 times before it's actually played. The Green Bay Packers repeat as Super Bowl champions, winning it all league-high 13.0% of the time. In the most likely Super Bowl, Green Bay defeats the San Diego Chargers 57.0% of the time and by an average score of 26-23. San Diego, the AFC's top-seed, wins the Super Bowl 10.5% of the time. The Philadelphia Eagles (10.3%), Pittsburgh Steelers (9.7%) and New England Patriots (9.4%) follow the Packers and Chargers in Super Bowl likelihood.

Read more about How This Works. Based on this analysis, we present projected standings, team stats and playoff results (below).

Projected Standings (based on 2011 NFL season played 50,000 times)

AFC East
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
New England Patriots 10.7 5.3
New York Jets 9.3 6.7
Miami Dolphins 7.3 8.7
Buffalo Bills 6.3 9.7


AFC North
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Pittsburgh Steelers 11.1 4.9
Baltimore Ravens 9.9 6.1
Cleveland Browns 7.7 8.3
Cincinnati Bengals 5.9 10.1


AFC West
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
San Diego Chargers 11.1 4.9
Kansas City Chiefs 7.1 8.9
Oakland Raiders 6.0 10.0
Denver Broncos 5.5 10.5


AFC South
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Houston Texans 9.3 6.7
Indianapolis Colts 9.3 6.7
Tennessee Titans 6.4 9.6
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.4 11.6


NFC East
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Philadelphia Eagles 11.3 4.7
Dallas Cowboys 9.1 6.9
New York Giants 8.5 7.5
Washington Redskins 6.0 10.0


NFC North
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Green Bay Packers 11.4 4.6
Chicago Bears 8.2 7.8
Minnesota Vikings 8.0 8.0
Detroit Lions 7.9 8.1


NFC West
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
Arizona Cardinals 7.2 8.8
St. Louis Rams 6.8 9.2
San Francisco 49ers 6.7 9.3
Seattle Seahawks 5.8 10.2


NFC South
Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses
New Orleans Saints 10.1 5.9
Atlanta Falcons 9.4 6.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.0 9.0
Carolina Panthers 5.2 10.8


Projected Offensive Stats (based on 2011 NFL season played 50,000 times)

Team Pts Rush Yards Rush TDs Pass Yards Pass TDs Pass INTs
New England Patriots 448.0 1,864.0 16.7 4,243.2 37.3 13.0
Houston Texans 444.8 1,873.9 19.6 4,164.3 31.3 17.0
Philadelphia Eagles 424.4 2,187.3 17.6 3,799.9 30.6 16.1
San Diego Chargers 423.7 1,713.8 16.6 4,212.6 31.6 16.2
Green Bay Packers 417.2 1,793.2 12.5 3,978.4 36.4 14.4
Indianapolis Colts 413.1 1,639.3 12.3 4,231.5 34.7 18.0
Dallas Cowboys 401.0 1,835.8 11.6 4,003.3 33.7 17.8
New Orleans Saints 392.0 1,556.2 11.9 4,238.6 33.1 19.6
Atlanta Falcons 391.8 1,819.4 15.7 3,711.2 28.8 17.4
Pittsburgh Steelers 377.0 1,739.9 16.6 3,764.2 24.3 15.0
New York Giants 370.7 2,085.7 17.4 3,362.1 25.6 17.4
Kansas City Chiefs 357.6 2,165.5 13.2 2,992.5 28.1 14.0
Oakland Raiders 357.6 2,121.7 17.7 3,028.2 20.5 16.9
Baltimore Ravens 354.6 1,959.5 13.6 3,212.8 25.7 15.5
Detroit Lions 353.5 1,499.4 10.2 3,775.0 29.7 19.8
New York Jets 347.4 2,062.4 14.6 3,308.9 22.7 16.7
Arizona Cardinals 344.3 1,365.2 13.2 3,855.2 22.1 20.4
Minnesota Vikings 340.7 1,976.4 18.7 3,193.7 20.0 17.6
St. Louis Rams 339.1 1,675.7 10.9 3,222.4 25.1 16.1
Denver Broncos 332.3 1,733.4 14.7 3,447.1 22.8 17.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 331.4 1,774.3 11.9 3,465.0 24.4 17.2
Cleveland Browns 331.2 1,895.3 15.2 3,236.8 20.5 17.6
Tennessee Titans 331.0 1,975.6 13.7 3,015.4 22.2 18.9
San Francisco 49ers 331.0 1,535.2 11.2 3,497.7 24.3 18.0
Chicago Bears 322.3 1,677.4 11.5 3,289.3 24.1 19.5
Washington Redskins 320.7 1,637.6 11.8 3,345.8 21.9 20.1
Seattle Seahawks 318.5 1,581.6 15.4 3,427.2 18.7 19.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 308.6 2,152.9 13.8 2,840.3 20.6 20.2
Miami Dolphins 305.7 1,879.6 12.1 3,143.0 18.2 19.8
Buffalo Bills 303.9 1,801.1 8.5 3,144.8 25.5 20.6
Cincinnati Bengals 274.5 1,678.1 9.6 2,976.4 19.1 20.5
Carolina Panthers 258.6 2,062.1 11.5 2,409.4 13.1 18.5

Projected Defensive Stats (based on 2011 NFL season played 50,000 times)

Team Pts Rush Yards Rush TDs Pass Yards Pass TDs Interceptions
Pittsburgh Steelers 267.5 1,487.0 10.4 2,950.6 19.1 19.5
Baltimore Ravens 287.0 1,531.1 11.6 3,139.8 19.6 18.5
Green Bay Packers 289.3 1,839.5 11.6 2,889.2 20.7 20.4
New York Jets 299.9 1,723.7 11.6 3,087.7 22.0 17.4
Philadelphia Eagles 299.9 1,818.3 11.3 2,974.8 21.8 20.5
San Diego Chargers 307.4 1,876.5 12.3 2,995.4 22.2 18.1
New Orleans Saints 316.0 1,753.9 12.3 3,186.2 22.7 16.6
Chicago Bears 316.5 1,646.1 12.4 3,345.4 23.1 19.0
Miami Dolphins 331.8 1,715.5 13.0 3,371.4 24.4 15.5
Cleveland Browns 339.8 1,836.7 13.5 3,352.9 23.2 18.6
Atlanta Falcons 339.9 1,823.6 12.9 3,501.0 24.7 19.2
Minnesota Vikings 340.1 1,670.9 12.3 3,461.6 25.5 17.1
New England Patriots 344.0 1,721.1 13.4 3,628.7 24.5 18.8
Cincinnati Bengals 347.8 1,805.3 14.0 3,452.8 24.1 18.0
New York Giants 354.2 1,793.2 12.7 3,530.0 26.5 17.8
Carolina Panthers 354.9 1,707.5 13.1 3,645.9 26.6 19.5
Detroit Lions 356.6 1,806.5 13.7 3,409.8 26.2 16.9
Dallas Cowboys 358.3 1,809.0 13.8 3,575.4 25.6 19.9
Buffalo Bills 363.9 2,216.3 14.5 3,180.8 26.0 15.5
Indianapolis Colts 365.6 2,029.8 14.7 3,381.4 26.0 16.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 367.9 1,938.2 13.7 3,503.7 27.3 18.5
Arizona Cardinals 376.5 1,906.5 15.2 3,576.3 25.7 16.3
San Francisco 49ers 378.6 1,589.3 14.6 3,856.1 26.5 16.0
St. Louis Rams 383.0 1,811.0 14.7 3,728.8 27.2 16.8
Kansas City Chiefs 390.1 1,878.0 15.4 3,759.8 28.2 16.6
Tennessee Titans 392.6 1,942.7 15.3 3,654.3 28.3 17.3
Houston Texans 393.5 1,875.9 15.4 3,803.9 27.5 17.9
Washington Redskins 393.8 1,927.1 15.5 3,788.5 28.0 17.6
Seattle Seahawks 401.9 1,774.1 15.2 3,889.2 28.5 16.9
Denver Broncos 428.4 2,075.8 16.7 3,827.8 31.0 14.9
Oakland Raiders 433.2 2,051.2 17.0 3,883.6 31.9 17.3
Jacksonville Jaguars 448.0 1,937.0 17.5 4,203.1 32.0 16.8

Based on the analysis, here is the projected NFL 2011 Playoff bracket. It should be noted however, that this exact bracket only occurred 301 of the 50,000 seasons played by the Predictalator (see new NFL Playoff Probabilities which are free and will be updated weekly:

AFC

Wild Card Round
#6 Baltimore 21 @ #3 New England 27
#5 New York Jets 25 @ #4 Houston 22

Divisional Round
#3 New England 22 @ #2 Pittsburgh 23
#5 New York Jets 17 @ #1 San Diego 23

AFC Championship
#2 Pittsburgh 19 @ #1 San Diego 21

NFC

Wild Card Round

#6 Dallas 23 @ #3 New Orleans 26
#5 Atlanta 27@ #4 Arizona 21

Divisional Round
#5 Atlanta 19 @ #1 Green Bay 27
#3 New Orleans 17 @ #2 Philadelphia 24

NFC Championship
#2 Philadelphia 21 @ #1 Green Bay 24

Super Bowl
Green Bay 26 over San Diego 23

To see projected stats and rankings for over 350 players, check out our Fantasy Football Preview.

NFL Preview Pages:
Over/Under Win Total Picks
Projected Standings and Playoff Results
In-Depth Team Analysis
NFL Team Rankings
Fantasy Football Projections and Rankings
NEW NFL Playoff Probabilities
NEW for Football 2011
Play the Games
Buy Picks

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ResultsFinder Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of February 1st-7th, one could find that the NFL Lock of the Week in the Super Bowl (Denver +6) easily covered as the Broncos defeated the Panthers 24-10. All-time, in the NFL Playoffs, Locks of the Week are 20-5 (80% ATS). This includes Super Bowl against-the-spread picks, which are now 5-2 (71% ATS). All-time on the site, all against-the-spread NFL Playoff picks are now 46-20 (70% ATS).

The Super Bowl was profitable in other ways as well. Not only did the UNDER (45.5) for the full game cover, the halftime side (Denver +4.5) and total (UNDER 23) did as well. And props were just as strong as all "normal" or better Super Bowl 50 player prop bets went 11-2 (85% props) to generate a return of +$592 for a normal $50 player using play value recommendations. Including all published props, game picks and halftime picks, all playable picks on the site for Super Bowl 50 went 38-11 (78%) and generated a profit of +$1,028 for a normal $50 player.

Elsewhere in sports, all "normal" or better (greater than 57% confidence) NBA against-the-spread and over/under picks combined to go 8-3 (73% ATS and O/U) over the last week and all "normal" or better against-the-spread picks in college basketball went 10-5 (67% ATS) over the same stretch.

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