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Bracket Odds (Original)

Last Updated: 8/19/2014 10:04 PM ET

For the NBA Playoffs beginning April 17th, PredictionMachine.com will also play every game 50,000 times to provide straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under picks. In the NCAA Tournament, the Predictalator accurately picked 77% of all 64 games straight-up and 60% against-the-spread. The NBA Playoffs picks package includes pick confidence for all games accompanied by our Play Value Key and Calculator for just $149.95.

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats from the last 30 games (weighted slightly more towards recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

See the most-likely Predictalated Bracket and Paul Bessire's Bracket Analysis.

Bracket Odds (based on 2010 NCAA Tournament played 50,000 times):
       
Region Seed Team 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
Midwest 1 Kansas 100.0% 77.4% 57.7% 36.7% 24.4% 15.7%
Midwest 16 Lehigh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 8 UNLV 50.4% 13.9% 3.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Midwest 9 Northern Iowa 49.6% 8.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 5 Michigan St. 92.1% 38.5% 9.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Midwest 12 New Mexico St 7.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 4 Maryland 72.4% 59.4% 27.9% 11.2% 4.7% 1.9%
Midwest 13 Houston 27.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 6 Tennessee 57.4% 12.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 11 SDSU 42.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 3 Georgetown 82.6% 73.9% 42.8% 19.2% 9.0% 4.1%
Midwest 14 Ohio 17.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Midwest 7 Oklahoma St. 40.5% 16.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Midwest 10 Georgia Tech 59.5% 25.8% 7.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Midwest 2 Ohio St. 99.9% 68.1% 45.6% 27.0% 16.6% 9.9%
Midwest 15 UCSB 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
West 1 Syracuse 97.6% 62.8% 45.6% 32.5% 18.7% 10.6%
West 16 Vermont 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West 8 Gonzaga 48.5% 18.8% 8.2% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4%
West 9 Florida St. 51.5% 18.4% 7.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3%
West 5 Butler 58.9% 32.5% 11.0% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3%
West 12 UTEP 41.1% 9.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
West 4 Vanderbilt 61.4% 50.7% 25.6% 12.6% 5.1% 2.0%
West 13 Murray St. 38.6% 7.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
West 6 Xavier 74.2% 50.3% 24.8% 10.3% 3.4% 1.1%
West 11 Minnesota 25.8% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West 3 Pittsburgh 79.6% 46.4% 19.7% 7.0% 2.0% 0.6%
West 14 Oakland 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West 7 BYU 54.1% 22.3% 9.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
West 10 Florida 45.9% 12.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
West 2 Kansas St. 100.0% 65.6% 42.9% 23.4% 10.4% 4.4%
West 15 North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
East 1 Kentucky 95.5% 78.4% 48.8% 28.2% 15.8% 8.0%
East 16 ETSU 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 8 Texas 47.6% 10.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
East 9 Wake Forest 52.4% 11.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
East 5 Temple 66.6% 26.4% 7.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
East 12 Cornell 33.4% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 4 Wisconsin 81.0% 69.8% 40.3% 21.7% 11.1% 5.3%
East 13 Wofford 19.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 6 Marquette 55.7% 45.1% 40.2% 21.0% 10.4% 4.8%
East 11 Washington 44.3% 22.5% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
East 3 New Mexico 70.6% 20.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
East 14 Montana 29.4% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East 7 Clemson 44.6% 11.4% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
East 10 Missouri 55.4% 28.1% 14.4% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0%
East 2 West Virginia 100.0% 60.5% 37.0% 19.1% 9.4% 4.3%
East 15 Morgan St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Region Seed Team 2nd Rnd Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
South 1 Duke 100.0% 64.8% 47.0% 30.1% 18.1% 10.2%
South 16 Ark-PB/Winth. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 8 Cal 59.3% 24.0% 10.9% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6%
South 9 Louisville 40.7% 11.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
South 5 Texas A&M 71.7% 59.3% 37.1% 15.4% 6.0% 2.2%
South 12 Utah St. 28.3% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 4 Purdue 50.0% 20.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South 13 Siena 50.0% 15.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 6 Notre Dame 35.0% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 11 Old Dominion 65.0% 18.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 3 Baylor 78.1% 70.1% 61.0% 36.1% 20.1% 10.4%
South 14 Sam Houston St. 21.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South 7 Richmond 51.0% 28.8% 12.1% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5%
South 10 St. Mary's 49.0% 23.4% 8.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
South 2 Villanova 92.3% 47.5% 18.1% 6.0% 1.9% 0.5%
South 15 Robert Morris 7.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

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9/15/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of September 8-14, one could find that all playable NFL Week 2 against-the-spread plays, led by our Lock of the Week (Houston -3, which covered by two touchdowns) went 7-6 (54% ATS), while all playable halftime sides went 8-4 (67% ATS). In college football's Week 3, all playable picks for the week went 43-31 (58% ATS and O/U). In the last two weeks, all playable college football picks are 77-54 (59% ATS and O/U). Baseball picks continue to cash as all highlighted, "normal" MLB plays went 10-7 (59% ML, O/U, and RL). In the last two weeks all normal MLB plays are 16-10 (62% ML, O/U, and RL).
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