New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Rams in the NFC South (11/18/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Could the Rams make the playoffs in the NFC South?



    The St. Louis Rams shocked the NFL by holding Peyton Manning to his lowest scoring day as a Bronco in Sunday's 22-7 victory. The Broncos had scored 17 or more points in each of Manning's first 41 regular season games but the Rams held the defending AFC Champions to one touchdown.

    At 4-6, the Rams are not out of the playoffs. But with five teams ahead of St. Louis in the NFC Wild Card race, the Rams' margin for error is small. We give St. Louis a 2.7 percent chance of reaching the postseason and a 0.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

    With a dominating performance against one of the best teams in the league and victories over the past two NFC Champions, Seattle and San Francisco, one might wonder if St. Louis could make the playoffs if it were in a different division, say the NFC South.

    The NFC South has been a running joke this season. The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons have backed their way into first place in the division. Could St. Louis be the best team in the league's worst division?

    To find out we used 50,000 simulations to determine if St. Louis could make the playoffs if the Rams were part of the NFC South. We ran two simulations, the first with the Rams playing the New Orleans Saints' schedule, the second with the Rams playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' schedule.

    After 50,000 simulations the St. Louis Rams (playing the Saints' schedule) would win the NFC South with a projected record of 9.0-7.0. The Rams would have a 77.5 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 2.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

    Of course taking the Saints out of the division makes the NFC South much easier. What would the Rams' chances be of reaching the playoffs if they had to play New Orleans twice during the regular season?

    After 50,000 simulations the St. Louis Rams (playing the Buccaneers' schedule) would finish second in the NFC South (behind the Saints) with a projected record of 7.6-8.4. Even though the Rams would not be projected to win the division, St. Louis would have a 39.7 percent chance of making the playoffs and 0.9 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

    St. Louis averaged 4.0 rushing yards per play including 113 yards from rookie Tre Mason against one of the league's best run defenses in Sunday's victory over Denver. Every team in the NFC South ranks middle of the road or worse in defensive rushing efficiency.

    Coming into the season the Rams had hopes for a terrifying defense led by a front seven capable of producing sacks from any position. St. Louis had just one sack through the team's first five games, an NFL record. Since Week 7, the Rams have 18 sacks on 222 dropbacks looking like the dominant unit many imagined before the season.

    An improved run game and defense, plus playing in the NFC South, would dramatically increase the St. Louis Rams' chances of returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

    Rams in the NFC South

    Projected Stats Playing Saints Schedule Playing Buccaneers Schedule
    Record 9.0-7.0 7.6-8.4
    Chance to reach playoffs 77.5% 39.7%
    Chance to win Super Bowl 2.1% 0.9%

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    Peterson Playing (11/18/14)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 11 (11/10/14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Risers & Fallers - Power Rankings
    Mark Dankenbring discusses the biggest risers and fallers in our MLB Power Rankings over the course of the past week.

    MLB Futures Picks - Who to bet for the World Series
    Each Monday during the 2017 season, we will review free MLB Futures value picks.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com