Highest Value from DFS Stars
I've written a couple articles this year focusing on bargain players to target when creating a lineup. As important as it is to get quality players with a low salary in your lineup, it's equally important to choose the high salary players when they have a big night. Having a player with a top three salary at their position put up a low number severely hurts your chances at winning money night in and night out. Therefore, I'm going to take a closer look at the top three offensive players at each position and dissect their season thus far, identifying when it's best to input them in your lineup.
Next to each hitter's name will be his strength(s) so far this season, followed by more details and numbers of their performance in that area of strength. The options are Home vs. RHP, Home vs. LHP, Away vs. RHP, and Away vs. LHP.
Salvador Perez – Home vs. RHP
Perez has performed the strongest this year at home against right handed pitching. So far he's batting .358 with five home runs and 16 RBIs. Perez is slugging .654 at home against right handers, which contributes to his OPS of 1.043.
Buster Posey – Home vs. LHP
Posey has shown good consistency thus far, but has performed his best against left handers at home. Posey boasts his highest slugging percentage, .543, which includes two homers and three doubles. Posey is hitting .286 in these situations, 12 points higher than his overall average.
Wilson Ramos – Away vs. LHP or RHP
The Nationals' catcher has shown a propensity to succeed away from the nation's capital so far this year. Ramos is hitting .353 on the road this year, has five of his 11 homers, and eight of his 11 doubles. He has 16 more hits on the road this year, has scored 11 more runs, and driven in six more runs.
David Ortiz – Home vs. RHP
Ortiz is hitting a whopping .406 against right handers at Fenway this season. So far he's slugging a remarkable .849 in this matchup, blasting eight homers and smacking 21 doubles. Ortiz is also reaching base more than 50% of the time, posting an OBP of .508.
Paul Goldschmidt – Home vs. LHP
Goldschmidt is far and away at his best when he's at home against lefties. So far Goldschmidt is batting .455 and has an OPS of 1.349. Six of his 15 hits in this situation have been for extra bases, and Goldschmidt has walked eight times in just 42 plate appearances. As you can tell, he sees the ball incredibly well against lefties at home.
Wil Myers – Home vs. RHP
Myers has been posting the best numbers of his career, and a lot of it can be contributed to his success at home against righties. Even in the spacious Petco Park, Myers has batted .350 and hit eight of his sixteen homers. Myers is slugging .658 in these matchups, as he's posted 10 doubles to go along with those eight homers at home.
Jose Altuve – Away vs. RHP
Altuve has posted great numbers across the board, but his most success has come on the road against right handed pitching. Through 100 at bats, he's hit .390 with four homers, seven doubles, and 15 walks. Altuve also boasts an OPS of 1.047 in these circumstances.
Robinson Cano – Away vs. RHP
Cano mirrors Altuve in his success so far this year, and is batting .367 on the road against righties. Cano is slugging an impressive .700 that includes seven of his 19 homers, nine of his 16 doubles, and 20 of his 53 RBIs. Cano has also posted two multi-homer games on the road against right handed pitching.
Ian Kinsler – Home or Away vs. LHP
Kinsler is crushing left handed pitching this year, batting nearly .100 points higher and slugging more than .100 points higher than against righties. Even though he's had less at bats against lefties, his numbers don't lie, as he's batting .368 with three homers, his only two triples, and four doubles in 76 at bats.
Josh Donaldson – Home vs. LHP or RHP
Donaldson has shown he can crush any pitching when playing in his home park. He's batting 70 points higher at home than on the road – .310 as opposed to .240. Donaldson has only hit seven of his 17 homers at home, but has hit 11 of 16 doubles, and has 27 RBIs at home. He's slugging .579 at home with an OPS of .981.
Manny Machado – Home vs. LHP or RHP
Machado has been stellar all around this year, but is definitely hitting better at home this year. He's hitting .327 at home with 10 of his 17 homers and 30 of his 42 RBIs. He's slugging .633, with the majority of his power coming against right handed pitching. All of his homers have come against righties, but Machado is hitting 30 points higher average wise against lefties. Overall, any matchup at home is favorable for Machado.
Nolan Arenado – Home vs. LHP or RHP
Playing at Coors field is where Arenado feels most comfortable. Rounding out this group of three, Arenado matches the previous two's tendencies, smashing both righties and lefties at home. Overall at home he's hitting .311 (.371 vs. LHP, .286 vs. RHP), but the majority of his power numbers have come against righties. Primarily it deals with just strictly the number of at bats, but Arenado has nine of his 12 homers at home against righties and has 27 of his 35 RBIs. However, Arenado has a .500 OBP against lefties and is slugging .714 as opposed to .679 against righties.
Xander Bogaerts – Home or Away vs. LHP
Another player who's having an all-around exceptional season, and Bogaerts has even more exceptional numbers against lefties so far this year. Bogaerts is batting .417 against lefties, slugging .639, and has an OPS of 1.089. Due to at bat reasons Bogaerts hasn't had the same numbers, but his efficiency is much higher against southpaws.
Francisco Lindor – Home vs. RHP or LHP, Away vs. LHP
Lindor has been special this year in nearly every circumstance. Other than hitting .227 against right handers on the road, here are Lindor's splits: .348 vs. LHP, .368 vs. RHP at home. Leaving his average against righties on the road, Lindor is hitting .358 on the year, including seven of his eight home runs. You can feel comfortable putting Lindor in your lineup in any circumstance other than against righties on the road.
Jonathan Villar – Away vs. RHP or LHP
The second straight switch hitter to make the list at shortstop, Villar is excelling this year on the road for the Brewers. Villar is hitting .321 on the road so far this season, has five of his six homers, and is slugging .136 points higher than at home. Because of this higher average, Villar has also been able to steal more bases on the road than at Miller Park.
Mookie Betts – Home or Away vs. RHP
Betts has some pretty staggering splits this season, batting .175 against lefties and .308 against righties. Against right handers, Betts has hit 12 of his 15 home runs, 43 of his 50 RBIs, and several other categories heavily lean towards starting him against righties. At the end of the day, keep him out against lefties and in against right handers.
Mike Trout – Home or Away vs. RHP
The Angels' centerfield has been crushing right handed pitching so far this season. Trout is hitting .311 against righties, has hit 12 of his 14 home runs against them, and also driven in 40 of his 47 RBIs. Trout is slugging .574 against righties, which is .174 points higher than against lefties. So if Trout does have a weakness, it appears to be against left handed pitching.
Kris Bryant – Away vs. RHP
Bryant is hitting .303 on the season so far against right handers not at Wrigley Field. He's hit six homers in this situation, the most in any of the four options, as well as 21 of his 48 RBIs. Bryant has also walked 15 times in this situation, which equals half of his total amount on the year. He clearly sees the ball well on the road against righties, so make sure to put him in your lineup when he's in this situation.
Ian Desmond – Home vs. LHP
Desmond has been destroying southpaws at home this year. Hitting .447 against them on the year, Desmond has set himself apart from the rest of his numbers, including slugging .737 in this circumstance, which is more than .200 points higher than in any of the other options. In just 38 at bats, Desmond has hit three of his 11 homers and driven in nine runs. Look for him to continue to pound left handed pitching, especially at home.
Bryce Harper – Away vs. RHP
Even though Harper has struggled compared to his MVP campaign last year, he's still performing well against right handers on the road. So far this season he's hitting .289 in such circumstances, including six of his 14 homers and 13 RBIs. Harper also posts his best OPS in this situation, sitting at .942 on the year.
Even though these hitters are likely to perform well each and every night, if you focus on them in these specific circumstances, you're likely to get the most value out of their high salary.
|Worst Offenses in Baseball (6/29)|
|DFS Baseball Value Plays (6/15/16)|
04/24/2017 Highlight: The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.