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    Super Bowl Matchups (12/30/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Finding value in Super Bowl exact matchup odds. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    The NFL Playoffs kick off Saturday, the defending champion Seattle Seahawks are 12/5 favorites to win the Super Bowl.

    Below we look for value in the odds for each exact Super Bowl matchup. We utilize our NFL Playoff Odds to find the likelihood of a given team reaching the Super Bowl.

    To determine if a matchup has value we look at what the current odds are for both teams to reach the Super Bowl and compare that to our projected odds for that matchup to occur. For example, a New England vs. Dallas Super Bowl is listed at 9/1, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on this prop bet this Super Bowl would need to occur 10.0% (which is 1/(9+1)) of the time. We project the Patriots and Cowboys to play each other for the title 2.5% of the time, meaning there is no value at 9/1 odds.

    Seahawks vs. Patriots


    This is the oddsmakers' most likely Super Bowl. New England vs. Seattle has 9/4 odds to occur, need 30.8% confidence in order to make the bet. However, this is the matchup with the greatest discrepancy between our projected odds and the odds needed in order to feel comfortable placing a wager.

    We project that the Patriots and Seahawks square off in the Super Bowl 17.0 percent of the time. There is no value in placing this bet.

    Broncos vs. Seahawks


    This is our most likely Super Bowl. Seattle is over 50 percent likely to win the NFC Championship and Denver is the most likely AFC team to reach the title game.

    We project that there is a 20.4 percent chance of a rematch of last year's Super Bowl. At 11/2 to odds, needing 15.4% confidence to make the wager, there is value in placing this wager.

    Broncos vs. Packers


    Denver defeated Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII. Bovada.lv gives 12/1 odds for a repeat of the 1998 title game. In order to feel comfortable placing this wager, you would need 7.7 percent confidence. We project this Super Bowl to occur 13.1 percent of the time providing the greatest value among all the listed odds.

    Other matchups with value: Colts vs. Seahawks, Colts vs. Packers, Ravens vs. Seahawks and Ravens vs. Packers.

    Super Bowl Exact Matchup Odds

    Super Bowl Exact Matchup Odds Odds Needed Proj. Chance
    New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks 9/4 30.8% 17.0%
    New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers 11/2 15.4% 10.9%
    New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys 9/1 10.0% 2.5%
    New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers 33/1 2.9% 1.3%
    New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions 33/1 2.9% 1.2%
    New England Patriots Arizona Cardinals 60/1 1.6% 0.2%
    Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks 11/2 15.4% 20.4%
    Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers 12/1 7.7% 13.1%
    Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys 20/1 4.8% 3.0%
    Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers 75/1 1.3% 1.6%
    Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions 75/1 1.3% 1.4%
    Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals 125/1 0.8% 0.3%
    Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks 12/1 7.7% 3.2%
    Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers 28/1 3.4% 2.0%
    Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys 50/1 2.0% 0.5%
    Pittsburgh Steelers vs Carolina Panthers 175/1 0.6% 0.2%
    Pittsburgh Steelers vs Detroit Lions 175/1 0.6% 0.2%
    Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals 275/1 0.4% 0.0%
    Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks 25/1 3.8% 5.3%
    Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers 50/1 2.0% 3.4%
    Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys 75/1 1.3% 0.8%
    Indianapolis Colts vs Carolina Panthers 300/1 0.3% 0.4%
    Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions 300/1 0.3% 0.4%
    Indianapolis Colts vs Arizona Cardinals 500/1 0.2% 0.1%
    Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks 33/1 2.9% 4.0%
    Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers 66/1 1.5% 2.6%
    Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys 100/1 1.0% 0.6%
    Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers 375/1 0.3% 0.3%
    Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions 375/1 0.3% 0.3%
    Baltimore Ravens vs Arizona Cardinals 500/1 0.2% 0.1%
    Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks 33/1 2.9% 1.5%
    Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers 66/1 1.5% 1.0%
    Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys 100/1 1.0% 0.2%
    Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers 375/1 0.3% 0.1%
    Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions 375/1 0.3% 0.1%
    Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals 500/1 0.2% 0.0%




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