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    Super Bowl Player vs. Player Props

    Last Updated: 8/19/2014 10:04 PM ET

    Super Bowl XLVII: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
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    Super Bowl Player vs. Player Props

    Director of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, takes a look at 10 Player vs. Player Props from Bovada. All projected stats are averages from the 50,000 games played of Super Bowl XLVII. Follow John on Twitter @JohnEwing for more Prop bets and to let him know what other props you may like to see.

    Who will have more Passing Yards in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Joe Flacco BAL QB -19.5 -115
    Colin Kaepernick SF QB 19.5 -115

    Joe Flacco has averaged 284 yards in three postseason games this year but those yards came against the Colts (21st pass defense), Patriots (29th pass defense) and a Denver defense that gave up 110 yards in the last minute of regulation and two overtimes. Projected yards: Flacco 215.7, Kaepernick 231.6.

    Pick: Kaepernick +19.5

    Who will have more Completions in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Joe Flacco BAL QB -3 -115
    Colin Kaepernick SF QB 3 -115

    In the five games that the Ravens lost this year and Joe Flacco played the entire game, Flacco averaged 36 passing attempts. In those same five games Flacco has completed on average 19 passes. In all of those games the Ravens were passing because they were behind, just like we project they will be on Sunday. Projected completions: Flacco 20.9, Kaepernick 17.2.

    Pick: Flacco -3

    Who will have more Rushing Yards in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Ray Rice BAL RB -17.5 -115
    Colin Kaepernick SF QB 17.5 -115

    If you throw out Kaepernick's 181-yard performance against the Packers, he has averaged 36 yards per game in his nine starts. In Ray Rice's last 9 full games, he has averaged 80.8 yards per game. Projected yards: Rice 64.2, Kaepernick 38.

    Pick: Rice -17.5

    Who will have more Rushing Yards in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Frank Gore SF RB -30.5 -115
    Colin Kaepernick SF QB 30.5 -115

    We project Gore to carry the ball 18.8 times; in games this season that Gore has carried the ball 18+ times he has averaged 82.8 yards. Expect a heavy dose of Gore. Projected yards: Gore 89.2, Kaepernick 38.

    Pick: Gore -30.5

    Who will have more Rushing Yards in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Bernard Pierce BAL RB -5.5 -115
    LaMichael James SF RB 5.5 -115

    This is a battle between two complimentary backs that have proven themselves as efficient rushers. While we do project Pierce to have more carries, 7.5 compared to 6, we project James to be more efficient with the advantage that the 49ers rush offense has over the Ravens rush defense. Projected yards: Pierce 33.8, James 30.4.

    Pick: James + 5.5

    Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Michael Crabtree SF WR -45.5 -115
    Ray Rice BAL RB 45.5 -115

    Michael Crabtree is Colin Kaepernick's favorite target; Crabtree has averaged 84.1 yards per game since Kaepernick became the starter. Rice's participation in the passing game has been inconsistent this season with the Ravens. Projected yards: Crabtree 77.3, Rice 25.9.

    Pick: Crabtree -45.5

    Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Randy Moss SF WR -4.5 -115
    Ray Rice BAL RB 4.5 -115

    In addition to claiming to be the G.O.A.T., Moss also stated his displeasure with his offensive role during Super Bowl Media Day. Moss has only averaged 3.5 targets in the last ten games. In those same ten games Moss is averaging 27 receiving yards. Projected yards: Moss 28.8, Rice 25.9.

    Pick: Rice +4.5

    Who will have more Receiving Yards in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Vernon Davis SF TE -17.5 -115
    Ray Rice BAL RB 17.5 -115

    Though Davis has been utilized as a run-blocker most of this season he did break out against the Falcons for 106 yards. If the Ravens play soft pass coverage on him expect Davis to have another nice receiving day. Projected yards: Davis 46.3, Rice 25.9.

    Pick: Davis -17.5

    Who will have more Receptions in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Dennis Pitta BAL TE Pick -115
    Vernon Davis SF TE Pick -115

    Davis has averaged 2.2 receptions in his last ten games and has only been over 2 receptions in three of those ten games. Pitta has averaged 3.4 receptions in his last ten games and is targeted at a much higher rate than Davis. Projected receptions: Pitta 4.1, Davis 3.2.

    Pick: Pitta

    Who will have more Receptions in the game?        
    Player Team Position Spread Odds
    Anquan Boldin BAL WR -2.5 -115
    Randy Moss SF WR 2.5 -115

    Boldin led the Ravens in both targets (112) and receptions (65) this season. In three postseason games Boldin is averaging 9 targets and 5 receptions. Projected receptions: Boldin 4.9, Moss 1.7.

    Pick: Boldin -2.5

    Just about every prop we could find can be evaluated from the information above and/or within the projected boxscore and/or using the Customizable Predictalator. However, if there are any other prop picks that you would like to see for the Super Bowl, please let us know by submitting a Support Contact. Thanks!

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    11/24/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the Week of November 17th - 23rd, one could find that all highlighted college football "normal" or better plays went 6-3 (67% ATS and O/U), highlighted by the Lock of the Week, Appalachian State (+10 vs. LA-Lafayette), winning outright, 35-16, to cover by four touchdowns. The Lock of the Week has won seven of the last eight weeks and is 22-7 (77% ATS) in the last two seasons. Against-the-spread, "normal" or better halftime plays in college football also were solid going 4-2 (67% ATS).

    While there have only been three "normal" NFL ATS full game picks in the last two weeks, normal or better NFL against-the-spread halftimes have provided additional value by going 6-1 (86% ATS) in Week 11 and Week 12. Over the last six weeks, all playable full game against-the-spread NFL picks are 39-26 (60% ATS). In that same stretch, "normal or better halftime picks in the NFL are 17-8 (68% ATS). All halftime picks are free for the week!

    Finally, in the NBA, all "normal" or better picks went 5-3 (63% ATS and O/U). And, on the ice, all normal NHL plays stayed strong once again returning a profit for the fourth straight week. In the last four weeks, all normal or better NHL picks are 66-44 (60% ML, O/U and PL).


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    For Week 14 in College Football, there are a total of nine plays that cover the spread greater than 57% of the time to be considered "normal" or better as well as five predicted outright upsets. See Mississippi State @ Ole Miss and more.


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