Super Bowl XLVII Props Picks

Last Updated: 1/28/2013 at 8:00 PM ET

Super Bowl XLVII: Predictalator Picks  Paul's Analysis
Projected Super Bowl XLVII Boxscore  Prop Picks  Super Bowl Podcast
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PredictionMachine.com is proud to present our first major contest - Props Pick'em. An innovative and FREE contest, Props Pick'em asks you to select answers to 47 props for the upcoming NFL title game in New Orleans. The top 50 point scorers will share in the prize pool of $7,000 in site credits, including $2,000 to the overall contest winner.

Super Bowl Props Picks

In the picks below, all projected stats are averages from the 50,000 games played of Super Bowl XLVII. The Pick and Calc represent the side we are choosing and the percentage of games in which the prop picked covers the noted line. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. Typically, we assume all plays to be -110, for which anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick. However, for odds that are not -110, we have indicated whether the pick is playable (NP means "No Pick") at all and what the corresponding confidence in that pick equates to. Due to the built in "vig or "juice" from the lines, which can be adjusted using the Play Value Calculator, some props may not have a playable pick. Props picks will be updated as needed due to injury or other depth chart information.

Just about every prop we could find can be evaluated from the information above and/or within the projected boxscore and/or using the Customizable Predictalator. However, if there are any other prop predictions that you would like to see for the Super Bowl, please let us know by submitting a Support Contact. Thanks!

Props Package Picks

Baltimore Quarterback

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Joe Flacco Pass Yds 250 (-110/-110) 215.7 UNDER (58.4%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco Comp. 20.5 (-110/-110) 20.9 UNDER (51.7%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco Att. 34.5 (-110/-110) 35.3 OVER (50.7%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco TDs Thrown 1.5 (-130/EVEN) 1.3 UNDER (53.8%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco TDs Thrown 0 (+300) 1.3 0, (18.9%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco TDs Thrown 1 (+175) 1.3 1, (35.9%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco TDs Thrown 2 (+250) 1.3 2, (25.5%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco TDs Thrown 3 (+450) 1.3 3, (12.6%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco TDs Thrown 4+ (+400) 1.3 4+, (7.1%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco INT 0.5 (-165/+135) 0.8 UNDER (47.2%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco Rushes 2.0 (-110/-110) 2.0 UNDER (50.2%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco Rush Yards 2.5 (-110/-110) 0.7 UNDER (58.8%) Calc -->
Joe Flacco 4th QTR TD Yes (+125)/No (-155) 0.5 NO, 63.0% Calc -->

San Francisco Quarterback

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Colin Kaepernick Pass Yds 232.5 (-110/-110) 231.6 UNDER (50.3%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick Comp. 17.5 (-110/-110) 17.2 UNDER (50.6%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick Att. 27.5 (-110/-110) 28.8 UNDER (52.7%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick TDs Thrown 1.5 (+110/-140) 1.6 OVER (53.0%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick TDs Thrown 0 (+200) 1.6 0, (18.1%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick TDs Thrown 1 (+180) 1.6 1, (30.5%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick TDs Thrown 2 (+275) 1.6 2, (26.5%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick TDs Thrown 3 (+600) 1.6 3, (13.8%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick TDs Thrown 4+ (+1000) 1.6 4+, (11.1%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick INT 0.5 (-140/+110) 0.8 OVER (55.4%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick Rushes 7.5 (-110/-110) 5.7 UNDER (62.8%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick Rush Yards 50.5 (-110/-110) 38 UNDER (62.0%) Calc -->
Colin Kaepernick Rush TD Yes (+110)/No (-140) 0.5 NO, 61.8% Calc -->

Baltimore Running Backs

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Ray Rice Rush Yds 69.5 (-110/-110) 64.2 UNDER (55.9%) Calc -->
Ray Rice Rushes 18.5 (-110/-110) 17.6 UNDER (54.1%) Calc -->
Ray Rice Rec Yds 30.5 (-110/-110) 25.9 UNDER (58.8%) Calc -->
Ray Rice Recs 3.5 (-110/-110) 3.9 OVER (55.3%) Calc -->
Ray Rice TDs 0.5 (+110/-140) 0.8 OVER (49.1%) Calc -->
Bernard Pierce Rush Yds 32.5 (-110/-110) 33.8 OVER (50.5%) Calc -->
Bernard Pierce Receptions 0.5 (-110/-110) 0.2 UNDER (59.6%) Calc -->
Bernard Pierce TDs 0.5 (+400/-600) 0.1 UNDER (86.5%) Calc -->

San Francisco Running Backs

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Frank Gore Rush Yds 82.5 (-110/-110) 89.2 OVER (53.5%) Calc -->
Frank Gore Rushes 20.5 (-110/-110) 18.8 UNDER (51.8%) Calc -->
Frank Gore Rec Yds 17.5 (-110/-110) 13.1 UNDER (56.8%) Calc -->
Frank Gore Recs 1.5 (-110/-110) 1.6 UNDER (50.6%) Calc -->
Frank Gore TDs 0.5 (-140/+110) 0.9 OVER (60.6%) Calc -->
LaMichael James Rush Yds 25.5 (-110/-110) 30.4 OVER (58.1%) Calc -->
LaMichael James Rec. Yds 9.5 (-110/-110) 9.1 UNDER (53.2%) Calc -->
LaMichael James TDs 0.5 (+300/-400) 0.3 OVER (25.7%) Calc -->

Baltimore Receivers/Tight Ends

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Anquan Boldin Rec Yds 67.5 (-110/-110) 58.9 UNDER (59.0%) Calc -->
Anquan Boldin Recs 4.5 (-150/+120) 4.4 UNDER (49.1%) Calc -->
Anquan Boldin TDs 0.5 (+135/-165) 0.3 UNDER (67.2%) Calc -->
Torrey Smith Rec Yds 65.5 (-110/-110) 55.8 UNDER (59.4%) Calc -->
Torrey Smith Recs 3.5 (-140/+110) 4.1 OVER (54.4%) Calc -->
Torrey Smith TDs 0.5 (+135/-165) 0.4 OVER (42.6%) Calc -->
Dennis Pitta Rec Yds 45.5 (-110/-110) 38.4 UNDER (56.6%) Calc -->
Dennis Pitta Recs 4 (-110/-110) 4.1 OVER (55.5%) Calc -->
Dennis Pitta TDs 0.5 (+175/-215) 0.4 OVER (38.3%) Calc -->

San Francisco Receivers/Tight Ends

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
Michael Crabtree Rec Yds 77.5 (-110/-110) 77.3 OVER (50.1%) Calc -->
Michael Crabtree Recs 6 (-110/-110) 5.8 OVER (51.2%) Calc -->
Michael Crabtree TDs 0.5 (-115/-115) 0.7 UNDER (54.7%) Calc -->
Randy Moss Rec Yds 35.5 (-110/-110) 28.8 UNDER (61.7%) Calc -->
Randy Moss Recs 2.5 (-110/-110) 1.7 UNDER (60.6%) Calc -->
Randy Moss TDs 0.5 (+240/-300) 0.2 UNDER (77.6%) Calc -->
Vernon Davis Rec Yds 50.5 (-110/-110) 46.3 UNDER (53.1%) Calc -->
Vernon Davis Recs 3.5 (-140/+110) 3.2 UNDER (52.4%) Calc -->
Vernon Davis TDs 0.5 (+110/-140) 0.4 UNDER (65.0%) Calc -->
Delanie Walker Rec Yds 20.5 (-110/-110) 37.4 OVER (64.3%) Calc -->
Delanie Walker Recs 1.5 (-110/-110) 2.2 OVER (56.4%) Calc -->

Kickers

Player Stat Line Proj. Pick Calc
David Akers Points 7.5 (-110/-110) 8.9 OVER (60.2%) Calc -->
David Akers FGM 1.5 (-110/-110) 2.1 OVER (62.2%) Calc -->
Justin Tucker Points 7.5 (Even/-120) 7.1 UNDER (53.8%) Calc -->
Justin Tucker FGM 1.5 (-110/-110) 1.6 OVER (51.9%) Calc -->

MVP Odds

Player Team MVP Chance MVP Line Pick/Calc
Colin Kaepernick SF 37.4% 7/4 Calc -->
Joe Flacco BAL 20.0% 11/4 NP
Frank Gore SF 8.0% 7/1 NP
Michael Crabtree SF 6.9% 14/1 Calc -->
Ray Lewis BAL 6.5% 7/1 NP
Ray Rice BAL 4.2% 10/1 NP
Vernon Davis SF 3.2% 18/1 NP
Torrey Smith BAL 1.8% 20/1 NP
Field N/A 1.4% 22/1 NP
LaMichael James SF 1.4% 66/1 NP
Anquan Boldin BAL 1.4% 17/1 NP
Delanie Walker SF 1.2% 100/1 Calc -->
Randy Moss SF 1.1% 40/1 NP
Dennis Pitta BAL 0.8% 40/1 NP
Patrick Willis SF 0.8% 50/1 NP
Aldon Smith SF 0.8% 40/1 NP
Ted Ginn SF 0.7% 75/1 NP
NaVorro Bowman SF 0.7% 66/1 NP
Dashon Goldson SF 0.6% 66/1 NP
Terrell Suggs BAL 0.4% 50/1 NP
Ed Reed BAL 0.3% 33/1 NP
Bernard Pierce BAL 0.2% 75/1 NP
David Akers SF 0.0% 66/1 NP
Justin Tucker BAL 0.0% 75/1 NP
Alex Smith SF 0.0% 100/1 NP

Misc. Game Props 

Type Line Proj. Pick/Calc
Longest FGM (Yds) 44.5 (-110/-110) 43.2 UNDR (53.3%)
Longest FGM (Team) BAL (-130) BAL (59.7%) BAL (59.7%)
Longest TD (Yds) 46.5 Yds (-115/-115) 45.9 Yds UNDER (51.8%)
Longest TD (Team) SF (-130) SF (57.5%) SF (57.5%)
Shortest TD 1.5 Yds (-110/-110) 1.9 Yds OVER (53.4%)
Scores 1st SF (-130) 55.2% SF (55.2%)
Team Scores 1st Wins No (+150) 48.0% NO (48.0%)
Safety No (-1000) 91.3% NO 91.3%
OT NO (-1000) 92.4% NO 92.4%
3 Unanswered Scores Yes (-180) 62.6% YES 62.6%
Total Sacks UNDER 4.5 (-110) 55.8% UNDER 55.8%

Average Points by Quarter

Team 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr/OT
San Francisco 4.7 8.4 6.4 9.1
Baltimore 4.7 4.7 5.6 6.3

Entertainment Props (lines provided by Bovada.lv)

Type Line Proj. Pick/Calc
National Anthem 2:15 2:06 UNDER(57.2%)
Coin Flip Even 50.0% (25,001 Tails) Tails(50.0%)
Beyonce Top Gold (+275) Gold (33.3%) Gold (33.3%)
Beyonce Hair Curly (Even) Curly (55.0%) CURLY (55.0%)
Jay-Z Shown 0.5 (-120/-120) 0.7 OVR (58.2%)
Postgame Handshake 7.5 (-120/-120) 5.8 UNDR (61.5%)

Just about every prop we could find can be evaluated from the information above and/or within the projected boxscore and/or using the Customizable Predictalator. However, if there are any other prop predictions that you would like to see for the Super Bowl, please let us know by submitting a Support Contact. Thanks!

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