New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    The Likelihood of Two Ties in One NFL Season (10/30/16)

    By Frank Brank @realfbra
    After the Redskins-Bengals tie in this week's London game at Wembley Stadium, ESPN's Darren Rovell reached out to Johnny Avello of Wynn Sports Book to find the probability of two NFL ties in a single NFL season.


    At first glance, this looked wildly incorrect to us, so we decided to use mathematics to determine if Avello's determination of true odds holds any weight.

    Since 1978, the NFL season has featured 16 games per team. There have now been a total of 20 ties over the course of 39 seasons. For the purpose of this exercise, we will assume there will be no more ties for the remainder of this season (even though we almost got another tie in Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon).

    Given 20 ties over 39 seasons, there's a 51.2% chance of a tie in an NFL season. Using 51.2% as the mean and using the Poisson distribution, we can quickly figure out that there's a 90.6% chance of one tie or fewer in a single NFL season. Thus, the odds of two or more ties in an NFL season is 9.4%. We can also use Poisson to determine that the odds of exactly two ties in an NFL season is 7.9%.

    Additionally, we can use the binomial distribution on a game level (instead of a season level) to find the probability of two ties in a 256-game span (one 16-game NFL season). Again, let's be generous and assume there will not be any more ties this season. The binomial distribution will tell us the probability of n successes, or ties, in N trials, or games.

    Since the 256-game season began, there have been 20 ties in 9984 games, or 0.2% of games resulting in ties. Using the binomial distribution, it's easy to find that the probability of exactly two successes (ties) in 256 trials (games) is 7.8%; a similar number to the Poisson approach above.

    We can determine that the probability of zero ties in a 256-game span is 59.8%. The probability of one tie in a 256-game season is 30.7%. Adding those together, there's a 90.5% chance of one tie or fewer in a 256-game season. Hence, according to the binomial distribution on a game level, there's a 9.5% of two or more ties in an NFL season, which again, is similar to the Poisson approach above.

    These probabilites are quite different than Avello's proposed number of 0.0013% (converting 75,000-to-1 odds to probability). According to the Poisson and binomial distribution, one would expect at least two ties in a season roughly once every 10.5 years; not once every 75,000 years!

    To top it off, the NFL overtime rules changed just a few seasons ago. Teams are actually more likely to tie now due to rule changes. The team that kicks off in overtime is guaranteed an offensive possession if the receiving team kicks a field goal to start overtime. In the previous 35 years or so, the first score would have ended the game. This means that the numbers we are suggesting above are actually fairly conservative. For the purposes of this exercise, we opted to use a larger sample size of data since there would have been a lot of variance in using a smaller set of data over the past couple of seasons.

    Since the 1978 expansion of 16-game seasons, there have now been three NFL seasons where two games have ended in ties. Conveniently, this amounts to once every 13 years, which is a little longer than our projection of once every 10.5 years, but also accounts for old rules. According to our calculations, the true odds of two or more ties in one NFL season would be 181-to-19 (best represented in American odds as +953). If any sportsbook on the planet is offering 75,000-to-1, sign us up!

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    UPDATE: Could the Browns Go Winless? (12/07/16)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL Week 8 Daily Fantasy Targets (10/28/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    The Predictalator

    03/13/2017 Highlight: Using our ResultsFinder tool, it's evident that the Predictalator is entering March Madness in incredible form. The Predictalator posted 59 "normal" or better plays in March (plays with greater than 57% confidence) and went a stellar 36-23 (61.0%) on those plays. An average $50 bettor would have profited $678 using our recommended wager sizes. After posting an outstanding 8-1 (88.9%) ATS record on "normal" or better sides in last year's NCAA Tournament, the Predictalator looks poised to produce more NCAA Tournament winners.

    NBA predictions continue to follow the same heat wave of college hoops, as all playable sides are 30-25 (54.5%) ATS in the month of March. More importantly, top plays continue to produce at a staggering clip, with all "normal" or better sides off to a solid 9-3 (75.0%) ATS mark in March, producing $284 in profits for an average $50 bettor.

    The Predictalator's NHL picks continue to cash in consistenly as "normal" or better ML and PL plays are an outstanding 32-18 (64.0%) on the season, amassing $507 in total profits. While the betting market has really tightened up with NHL in recent months, the Predictalator continues to find success and is now 449-367 (55.0%) on all playable ML and PL plays this season.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    College Basketball Picks - Sunday Games
    The Predictalator has played all of Sunday's NCAA Tournament games 50,000 times to analyze chances of each team winning relative to the spread and over/under.

    A.L. MVP & Cy Young Odds
    Frank Brank explores the odds for A.L. MVP and A.L. Cy Young Awards posted at bovada.lv and gives a breakdown of the top contenders.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com