New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Brady Suspension (05/08/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Life without Brady, what impact would a suspension have on the Patriots' season.



    The Wells report, an NFL investigation released Wednesday, found that New England Patriots personnel more probable than not deliberately deflated balls during the AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts. The findings also implicated Tom Brady, saying that the quarterback was probably “at least generally aware” of the rules violations.

    The NFL is expected to make disciplinary decisions regarding the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Possible penalties include a fine, a loss of one or more draft picks or potential discipline for Brady.

    How would a suspension of Tom Brady impact the Patriots season?

    If Brady played a full season, New England's average record after 50,000 simulations would be 10.1 wins (4th highest win total in the NFL) and 5.9 losses. The Patriots would win the AFC East by 1.1 games. Brady would complete 63.6 percent (364-of-573) of his passes for 4,435 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

    The nightmare scenario for Pats' fans, the NFL drops the hammer on the organization and suspends Brady for a full season. In this scenario, New England finishes with a lousy record of 6.8 wins, 9.2 losses (sixth lowest win total in the NFL). The Patriots without Brady finish 2.5 games behind the Bills and Dolphins in the AFC East.

    Without their future Hall of Fame quarterback, the Patriots would likely turn the ball over to second year player Jimmy Garoppolo. Brady's understudy as the starter would be projected to complete 300-of-524 (57.2%) passes for 3,277 yards, 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

    Of course a season long suspension is unlikely for the All-Pro quarterback. A more probable suspension would be a few games. The impact of Brady's absence, even in one or two games, is significant.

    Assuming Brady plays, the Patriots at home in Week 1 are projected to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 64.7 percent of the time. In Week 2, on the road against the Buffalo Bills the Patriots are the projected winner 51.4 percent of the time in our simulations.

    If Brady were suspended for the first two games of the season the Patriots would be expected to lose both matchups. New England's win probability against the Steelers would decrease from 64.7 percent to 44.5 percent and from 51.4 percent against the Bills to 33.9 percent.

    Will Brady be suspended, maybe, and for the defending champs life without their quarterback is grim.

    New England Patriots Season - With and Without Tom Brady

    Projected Stats Record Win AFC East
    Record 10.1-5.9 6.8-9.2
    Win AFC East? Yes No
    Win Total 4th Highest 6th Lowest

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    4 Game Suspension (05/12/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    NFL Win Totals
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB Risers & Fallers - Power Rankings
    Mark Dankenbring discusses the biggest risers and fallers in our MLB Power Rankings over the course of the past week.

    MLB Futures Picks - Who to bet for the World Series
    Each Monday during the 2017 season, we will review free MLB Futures value picks.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com