New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Richardson Trade (09/19/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    A look at the Trent Richardson trade, how does this impact the Colts playoffs chances? Plus prop bets for Richardson as a member of the Colts.



    The Cleveland Browns traded Trent Richardson, the third pick in the 2012 draft, to the Indianapolis Colts for a first-round draft pick next year. We project the Colts to finish tied for the fifth worst record in the league with Minnesota and Oakland. This would result in the Browns getting around the 6th overall pick (splitting the difference). The Browns are looking to rebuild a franchise that has only had two winnings seasons since 1999, Cleveland will have 10 draft picks next year. Only time will tell if the trade benefited the Browns.
     
    After the trade the Colts’ Super Bowl odds went from 50/1 to 45/1 and their odds to win the AFC went from 25/1 to 22/1 per Bovada.lv. The bookmakers are anticipating a positive outcome for Indianapolis but does the trade really benefit the Colts? We simulated the rest of the season to find out.
     
    Before the trade
    Colts record: 6.8 wins, 9.2 losses

    Playoff Probabilities (odds to win)
    • Division: 7.5%
    • Wild Card: 3.7%
    • Super Bowl: 0.1% 
    Rest of Season Stats:
    Andrew Luck: 3,007.9 pass yards, 20.6 TDs, 10.9 INTs 367.7 rush yards, 3.5 TDs
    Ahmad Bradshaw: 633.3 rush yards, 3.8 TDs, 163.4 rec. yards, 0.4 TDs
     
    Trent Richardson (on the Browns): 1,043.3 rush yards, 7.3 TDs, 195.0 rec. yards, 0.5 TDs
     
    After the trade
    Colts record: 6.5 wins, 9.5 losses

    Playoff Probabilities (odds to win)
    • Division: 6.6%
    • Wild Card: 3.6%
    • Super Bowl: 0.1% 
    Rest of Season Stats:
    Andrew Luck: 3,143.8 pass yards, 21.4 TDs, 11.5 INTs, 475.0 rush yards, 3.5 TDs
    Trent Richardson (on the Colts): 969.8 rush yards, 6.3 TDs, 192.3 rec. yards, 0.9 TDs
     
    After 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season the Colts go from 11.2% likely to make the playoffs to 10.2% likely to reach the postseason. The addition of Richardson should add more balance offensively to Indianapolis but that does not necessarily make the Colts a better team.
     
    Currently, the Colts are averaging 5.0 yards/rushing attempt (5th in the NFL). That average through two games is not likely to be sustained by this team with that offensive line regardless of the running back. With the addition of Richardson, the Colts are projected to run the ball more often, which will almost assuredly bring their rushing average down (Richardson has only averaged 3.4 yards-per-carry in his career behind a line that includes an elite left tackle and an above average center). As a result of the balance, Andrew Luck will attempt fewer passes. Currently averaging 7.6 yards/attempt, we do anticipate Luck to become even more efficient in the passing game. However, throwing less (with slightly greater efficiency) and running more (at notably weaker efficiency) has an essentially neutral impact on the Colts’ scoring average, specifically because the team still projects to be an above average passing team and a below average rushing team. The addition of Richardson, while great for headlines, does not improve the Colts chance of making the playoffs this year.

    Furthermore, we only have the Colts favored in one of their next nine games (@ Jacksonville). Also, they are only favored in two others games all season (vs. Tennessee and vs. Jacksonville). Though we believe in Vegas they would be favored over St. Louis at home. 
     
    Just because we do not project the Colts to make the playoffs with the addition of Richardson it does not mean that you can’t have fun betting the following props. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    We like the over on both of these props but just slightly. Regarding Richardson’s declining stats, since we assume he plays all remaining games as the starter for his team in both situations, he is almost assuredly in more of a time share now with Ahmad Bradshaw than he was before where he was the only active running back on the roster in the first two weeks and was, yet again, leading the league in team rush percentage at 93.9%. Of course, our projections of the Browns season with Richardson on the team assumed the team was trying to win football games…
     
    Trent Richardson - Total rushing yards as a member of the Colts in 2013 Regular Season
    • Over: 950.5 (-115)
    • Under: 950.5 (-115) 
    Trent Richardson - Total touchdowns as a member of the Colts in 2013 Regular Season
    • Over: 7 (-115)
    • Under: 7 (-115)
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL Line Movements (09/20/13)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers Week 2 (09/16/13)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    12/05/2016 Highlight: Using our ResultsFinder tool, the Predictalator enjoyed a solid Week 13 in the NFL, posting a 6-3 (66.7%) ATS record on all playable sides and a 5-3 (62.5%) record on all playable totals. The Predictalator's top total cashed with ease as the Jags & Broncos stayed way under the number, while our Free Pick winner also was a sweat-free cash with the Lions winning outright as six-point dogs in New Orleans.

    It was always going to be difficult for the Predictalator to replicate the epic 34-9 (79.1%) ATS record from Week 13 of college football, but Week 14 wasn't too shabby either. The Predictalator posted a 7-4 (63.6%) ATS record on all playable sides, including a Free Pick winner on Virginia Tech +10 in the ACC Championship Game. The Predictalator has posted a stellar 276-231 (54.4%) record on all playable sides this season.

    The Predictalator is off to a hot start in December college hoops, producing a 15-9 (62.5%) ATS record on "normal" or better sides. A $50 bettor would have profited $282 using our recommended wager sizes. NHL season also continues to produce dividends, as the Predictalator is 164-136 (54.7%) on all playable sides and totals this season. What makes this even more impressive is that the Predictalator has picked more underdogs than favorites this year!

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NFL Picks - Week 14
    The Predictalator has played each of this week's NFL games 50,000 times. See the matchup between the Colts and Texans and more.

    Free Army vs. Navy Picks

    See the against-the-spread, over/under and straight-up breakdowns for Army vs. Navy.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com