New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    UConn/Kentucky vs. 76ers (04/09/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Could a talented college team defeat a team from the NBA? We simulated UConn and Kentucky against the 76ers to find out.


     
    March Madness is fantastic. As a nation we love the NCAA tournament because of the unpredictability. This year’s tournament was the second-most upset-heavy in the 68-team field history and featured an improbable title game between UConn and Kentucky – two teams that were just 2.1% likely to reach the championship game before the tournament started.
     
    While UConn and Kentucky’s appearance in the championship game was unlikely, it was not for lack of talent. Kentucky’s squad featured Julius Randle, a possible lottery pick, as well as James Young, Willie Cauley-Stein, and the Harrison twins, Aaron and Andrew, all likely to be drafted this summer. UConn also has NBA talent, Shabazz Napier and DeAndre Daniels rank inside the top 40 on Chad Ford’s Big Board.
     
    With all these future draft picks, could UConn or Kentucky pull the greatest upset of them all – beating an NBA team?
     
    First we need to pick the NBA team. To give our college teams the best opportunity to win, we need an NBA team that is terrible and employs young unproven talent. The first team that comes to mind is the Sixers. Philadelphia is the worst team in our Power Rankings, endured a 26 game losing streak, and has the youngest team in the NBA.
     
    Even against a team like Philadelphia that is in full tank mode, could UConn or Kentucky pull the upset?
     
    We ran a similar simulation last fall with Alabama vs. the NFL (0-4 teams). The results were not pretty. But basketball is different. With five starters, one player can have a greater impact on the game. Plus the three-point line is a lottery; inferior teams have used a great shooting night from behind the arc to produce upsets.
     
    UConn and Kentucky vs. the 76ers
    We simulated each matchup on a neutral floor, with the assumption that each team had equal time to prepare and that all games were played under college basketball rules. 
     
    Game Winner Win Percentage Projected Score
    UConn vs. 76ers 76ers 82.9% 79-66
    Kentucky vs. 76ers 76ers 82.2% 84-70

    UConn and Kentucky both lose and it is not really close. Philadelphia is projected to win by double digits in both games and is over 80% likely to win. For context, in all 67 tournament games this season we projected nine teams to be 80% likely or better to win their games. All nine teams did – we only gave Duke a 77% chance of beating Mercer.
     
    Even against the worst the NBA has to offer, it is highly unlikely that UConn, Kentucky, or any college basketball team would defeat a team of professionals.
     
     
    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    30-Sec Shot Clock (05/16/14)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers (04/08/14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    Our models offer the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because they have the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    08/09/2017 Highlight: Football season is slowly approaching and as we use our ResultsFinder tool to look back on previous seasons, we can see that ATS picks in the NFL regular season have topped 56% ATS four times in seven years, and have been profitable in all but one season on the site. NFL Playoff picks are also a stellar 50-25 (67% ATS) in our history.

    In college football, "normal" or better totals are 58% all-time and have been profitable in five of the previous seven years. Meanwhile, our strongest ATS pick each week in college football is 69-40 (63% ATS) all-time. With college football season win totals being posted this week, we can also note that last season, playable win total picks in went 28-19 (60% O/U) to turn a profit of $899 for a normal $50 player using our play value recommendations.

    MLB picks have been on a tear for upwards of a month, with our models generating $742 in total profits on ML and RL picks since the beginning of July. "Normal" or better ML and RL plays in that same stretch are a commendable 20-11 (64.5%), producing $331 in profits for an average $50 bettor.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Fantasy Sports Partnership
    Prediction Machine has partnered up with Fantasy Guru Elite. Read the blog from our Business Manager, Rob Pizzola, to learn more.

    NFL Preview - In-Depth Analysis
    In the most likely Super Bowl, the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks. Check out in-depth analysis for every team in the league.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com