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    NBA Playoff Odds (05/03/15)

    John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    By Paul Bessire
    The conference semifinals are set and the Golden State Warriors (38.4%) are still the most likely NBA Champions, up from 29.6% before the playoffs began. The Warriors most likely opponent in the Finals remains the Cleveland Cavaliers despite the loss of Kevin Love and the suspension of J.R. Smith for two games. However, the Cavs' chance of reaching (39.1%) and winning (15.7%) the finals have decreased from 44.5% and 21.0% respectively.

    As we predicted, the winner of the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs first round series is now the second most likely champion. The Clippers chances of winning the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy have increased from 8.8% to 16.6% after vanquishing the defending-champion Spurs.

    This simulation assumes Chris Paul is healthy and plays every game. If Paul is not able to play in this series because of his hamstring injury, the Clippers would be projected to lose in the conference semifinals to the Houston Rockets.

    There is only one predicted upset relative to seed in the conference semifinals, Clippers over Rockets. Again, this assumes a healthy Chris Paul. The Western Conference wins 66.7% of all simulated playoffs. The most likely Finals, Warriors vs. Cavs, occurs 20.3% of the time. The least likely Final, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Washington Wizards, occurs 1.0% of the time.

    NBA Playoff Odds (based on 2015 NBA Playoffs simulated 50,000 times):

    Region Seed Team Conf Finals NBA Finals Champ.
    Western 1 GS 77.4% 51.9% 38.4%
    Western 5 Mem 22.6% 9.1% 4.6%
    Western 2 Hou 42.7% 13.0% 7.1%
    Western 3 LAC 57.3% 26.0% 16.6%
    Eastern 1 Atl 61.4% 24.9% 7.4%
    Eastern 5 Was 38.6% 11.1% 2.0%
    Eastern 2 Cle 59.7% 39.1% 15.7%
    Eastern 3 Chi 40.3% 24.9% 8.2%

    Conference Semis Series Wins By Game

    Region Team In 4 In 5 In 6 In 7
    Eastern Was 5.6 8.1 13.3 11.6
    Eastern Atl 8.0 17.4 17.4 18.6
    Eastern Chi 5.1 8.1 13.9 13.2
    Eastern Cle 7.9 16.8 17.2 17.8
    Western Mem 2.1 3.9 7.8 8.8
    Western GS 13.1 27.6 19.5 17.2
    Western LAC 8.4 15.4 18.1 15.4
    Western Hou 4.2 11.8 10.6 16.1
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