New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    World Cup of Hockey Predictions (9/13/16)

    By Rob Pizzola @robpizzola

    With the 2016 World Cup of Hockey set to get underway on Saturday, we've done our best to project each team's win probability for the tournament. It should be noted that projecting a tournament like this--which hasn't occurred since 2004--is very much an inexact science. We have been monitoring exhibition play as much as possible, but just like exhibition play in any other sport, there's not a whole lot to be gained. Line combinations are constantly changing, starting goalies aren't set in stone yet, and in general, parts are still moving. With that being said, we can make some assumptions and use the overall talent level of each team to draw some conclusions.

    It's no surprise that we make the Canadians the tournament favorite, hoisting the World Cup Trophy in approximately 38.7% of our simulations. Unlike the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the semi-finals are decided in knockout style, and the finals are decided in a best-of-three series. If the tournament format was a best-of-seven format (we fully understand why it's not), Canada would have a much higher likelihood of capturing the crown, but as we've seen in other sports like football and soccer, anything can happen in a one-game knockout format. In fact, Canada largely dominated the U.S.A. in their first exhibition matchup, but the Americans came out ahead on the scoreboard; something that would not shock us at all in a tournament of this style.

    Speaking of the Americans, while most oddsmakers are giving them the second-best odds of winning the World Cup, we see them as the fourth most likely team to win it all at approximately 12.3%. Granted, there's not a huge difference between the Americans and the two teams that we project ahead of them, but still enough of a difference where we wouldn't recommend placing any futures on the U.S. at their current odds.

    Coming in as the second-most likely team to win the tournament, with a 17.6% projected win expectancy, is Sweden. The Swedes don't exactly have the deepest set of forwards, but they are by far the best team on the back end in this tournament (yes, offensive defensemen can still be really good defensemen), and they are anchored by an elite goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist. Sweden will be in for a tough test in their Group B action against Team North America though; a collection of under 23's that are captained by phenom Connor McDavid. North America has a 14.9% of taking down the entire tournament, and probably makes for the best bet at most sportsbooks right now.

    So, I know what you're thinking... Surely a team comprised of players under the age of 23 does not have the experience to be better than the likes of the United States, Russia, and Finland. How can that be? Well, as the founder of this website once wrote, "intagibles are myths; everything is either quanitfiable, measurable, and useful, or irrelevant". People often try to use experience as a way of justifying their predictions, but there is no correlation between experience and success in hockey. There is however, a strong correlation between talent (puck possession skills) and success in hockey, and the North American roster is littered with great talent from top to bottom. We really don't see the North American squad as having any glaring weaknesses, whereas the Russian defensive core is awful, the Americans opted to bring a lot of "gritty" players that are void of talent, and the Finns, well, they have holes pretty much everywhere.

    Canada leads the pack in win expectancy, but four teams have a realistic chance of winning the World Cup of Hockey

    Print This Article
    Identifying the NHL's Biggest Overachievers & Underachievers (11/16/16)
    Value Bets (04/11/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!




    The Predictalator

    05/10/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now into its second month, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides and totals continue to remain extremely profitable despite a recent run of bad variance to start May. The Predictalator's record of 272-250 on sides and totals this season doesn't look all that impressive, but that's because the simulations have sided with underdogs more often than favorites. Through May 9, the Predictalator has generated $547 for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides, totals, and run lines (our strongest edges) are 14-10 (+$118) season-to-date.

    The NBA Playoffs continue on in the Second Round and the Predictalator has been profitable on both sides and totals in this year's postseason. Despite being just 16-19 (45.7%) ATS in the NBA Postseason, the Predictalator has generated $46 of total profit, which is a testament to our play value recommendations. Totals have been the real moneymaker in this postseason though, as all playabale totals are 19-15 (55.9%) for a solid profit of $168.

    The NHL Playoffs have featured some very tight lines posted by oddsmakers, which has led to lower volume for the Predictalator. That hasn't let to less profits though. The Predictalator has posted 10 NHL positions (ML, O/U, or PL) in May, going 8-2 (80%) on those positions for a profit of $87. It is rare to find a big edge in the NHL this late in the year, but the Predictalator continues to chip away on small edges to provide solid returns.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    NHL Stanley Cup Preview
    We simulate the Stanley Cup Finals 50,000 times to provide each team's probability of hoisting the Cup, and break down the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including the returns of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays lineup.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by