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    World Series Prop Bets (10/21/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals World Series preview, who has the edge? Plus prop bets for the Fall Classic. All props courtesy of Bovada.LV.

    The Fall Classic will feature the Boston Red Sox, our most likely World Series Champions before the playoffs began, against the St. Louis Cardinals in a rematch of the 2004 World Series in which Boston swept St. Louis. Boston is the favorite at -140 to win over St. Louis +120.
    This is the fourth World Series featuring Boston and St. Louis.
    This is the first World Series since 1999 to feature both teams with the best record from the AL and NL during regular season. The Cardinals and Red Sox both finished with a record of 97-65.
    The Red Sox were 7/2 favorites (second behind the Dodgers) to win the World Series before the playoffs began. The Cardinals were tied with Detroit for the third best odds at 5/1.
    Boston has home-field advantage in the World Series due to the AL’s 3-0 win in the All-Star Game.
    The Winner Is...
    The most likely winner is the Boston Red Sox, they win the title 57.1% of the time. The most likely scenario is the Red Sox winning the World Series in six games, which occurs 18.5% of the time.
    The series goes to seven games 30.7% of the time and gets to at least six games 61.6% of the time.
    For more detailed analysis check out our World Series Preview.
    Bookmakers Point of View
    "I am more than happy the Red Sox were able to hold off the Tigers and get into the World Series since they are the team that would provide us with the biggest win possible out of any team that made the playoffs in our World Series Odds. Boston is a small 5/7 favorite against St. Louis paying out at 6/5 and 60% of the early money is on the Cards making our need for Boston to win even bigger."
    -Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager,

    Prop Bets
    Exact Series Results?
    St. Louis Cardinals 4-0:  12/1     
    St. Louis Cardinals 4-1:  6/1                   
    St. Louis Cardinals 4-2:  5/1       
    St. Louis Cardinals 4-3:  5/1       
    Boston Red Sox 4-0:  10/1   
    Boston Red Sox 4-1:  6/1       
    Boston Red Sox 4-2:  7/2       
    Boston Red Sox 4-3:  4/1  
    There is value in betting the Red Sox to win the series 4-1. The odds imply that there is a 14.3% chance of a Boston win in 5 games. We say it happens 15.4% of the time.
    Total games in series?
    4:  11/2
    5:  13/5
    6:  7/4
    7:  7/4
    Bet this at your own risk, we were not able to find any value in these odds.
    Odds to win the World Series MVP
    David Ortiz (BOS):  15/2
    Dustin Pedroia (BOS):  8/1
    Carlos Beltran (STL):  9/1
    Matt Holliday (STL):  10/1
    Yadier Molina (STL):  12/1
    These are the players with the five best odds to win the World Series MVP. If you are looking for a long shot, General Manager Paul Bessire recommended Clay Buchholz at 15/1. Buchholz got the nod from Paul because if Boston wins the series in six games like we predict that would most likely mean two wins for Buchholz over the Cardinals future ace Michael Wacha.
    Which team will hit more Home Runs in the Series?
    St. Louis Cardinals:  +150
    Boston Red Sox:  -200
    Boston was 6th overall during the regular season with 178 HRs, St. Louis was 27th with 125. During the postseason, the Cardinals have hit 8 dingers while the Red Sox have launched 6 moon shots.
    Will any team pitch a shutout in the Series?
    Yes:  EVEN  
    No:  -140          
    The Cardinals pitched two shutouts in the NCLS, Game 2 and Game 6 against the Dodgers. Boston pitched one shutout in the ALCS against Detroit in Game 3 of their series. Both teams were shutout once in their respective League Championships.
    Will there be a Grand Slam in the Series?   
    Yes:  +300
    No:  -500
    Boston is just the second team to hit 2 grand slams in a single LCS. The Red Sox are the first team in MLB history to hit two game-tying/go-ahead grand slams in the 7th inning or later in a single postseason.
    There have been 18 grand slams hit in the World Series dating back to 1920. The odds imply there is a 25% chance of it happening.
    Most Hits, Runs and RBI's in the Series
    Carlos Beltran (STL):  EVEN
    David Ortiz (BOS):  -125
    These are the two most likely World Series MVPs, per their odds, for each team. Beltran has had 10 hits, 5 runs, and 12 RBI this postseason. Ortiz has had 7 hits, 5 runs, and 7 RBIs in the 2013 postseason. St. Louis has played one more postseason game than Boston this year.
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