New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Yes/No Super Bowl Bets (01/19/16)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    “Yes”/”No” Super Bowl bets. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    Only two games remain until Super Bowl 50. Which team(s) should you bet “Yes” or “No” to win the big game?

    Below we look for value in the odds for the remaining four NFL Playoff teams to win the Super Bowl. We utilize our NFL Super Bowl odds to find the likelihood of a given team winning (or not winning) it all.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl and compare that to our projected odds the team hoists the Lombardi Trophy. For example, New England is listed at +200 (2/1) to win the Super Bowl, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Patriots they would need to win it all 33.3% (which is 1/(2+1)) of the time. We project Tom Brady and the Pats to win the Super Bowl 20.2% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +200 odds.

    Arizona Cardinals - Yes
    Odds: +400, Implied Chance: 20.0%, Projected Chance: 32.4%

    It has been seven years since the Cardinals last made a Super Bowl run. Arizona came up short then but this year Bruce Arians and the Birds are the most likely team to win it all. Carson Palmer leads the NFL's top ranked offense and the defense isn't half bad either, ranking in the top five in efficiency.

    Denver Broncos - Yes
    Odds: +400, Implied Chance: 20.0%, Projected Chance: 23.9%

    Peyton Manning is no longer a gunslinger, he is a game manager. The Denver offense that was once the envy of the league is now ordinary. Yet, there is value in backing the Broncos to win it all. Like they say, defense wins championships and the best unit in the game resides in Mile High.

    Carolina Panthers - No
    Odds: -250, Implied Chance: 71.4%, Projected Chance: 76.6%

    A strong indicator of future success is a team's yards per play differential. Carolina ranks in the top ten in this statistic, of course that came against the league's easiest schedule. The Panthers opponent in the NFC Championship game, Arizona, led the NFL in yards per play differential and that was against much stiffer competition.

    New England Patriots - No
    Odds: -250, Implied Chance: 71.4%, Projected Chance: 79.9%

    Tom Brady has dominated his matchup with Peyton Manning going 11-5 straight-up against his rival. Yet, when it really matters, Brady and the Patriots are just 1-2 against Manning in AFC title games. It is hard to win the Super Bowl if you don't reach the big game.

    “Yes”/”No” Super Bowl odds

    Team Yes No Chance To Win
    Arizona Cardinals +400 -600 32.4%
    Carolina Panthers +200 -250 23.4%
    Denver Broncos +400 -600 23.9%
    New England Patriots +200 -250 20.2%

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Conference Titles (01/20/16)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers Divisional (01/18/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.

    The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including Miguel Cabrera's injury, Cody Bellinger's call up and the Seattle Mariners' mess.

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com