New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Yes/No Super Bowl Bets (01/19/16)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    “Yes”/”No” Super Bowl bets. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    Only two games remain until Super Bowl 50. Which team(s) should you bet “Yes” or “No” to win the big game?

    Below we look for value in the odds for the remaining four NFL Playoff teams to win the Super Bowl. We utilize our NFL Super Bowl odds to find the likelihood of a given team winning (or not winning) it all.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl and compare that to our projected odds the team hoists the Lombardi Trophy. For example, New England is listed at +200 (2/1) to win the Super Bowl, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Patriots they would need to win it all 33.3% (which is 1/(2+1)) of the time. We project Tom Brady and the Pats to win the Super Bowl 20.2% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +200 odds.

    Arizona Cardinals - Yes
    Odds: +400, Implied Chance: 20.0%, Projected Chance: 32.4%

    It has been seven years since the Cardinals last made a Super Bowl run. Arizona came up short then but this year Bruce Arians and the Birds are the most likely team to win it all. Carson Palmer leads the NFL's top ranked offense and the defense isn't half bad either, ranking in the top five in efficiency.

    Denver Broncos - Yes
    Odds: +400, Implied Chance: 20.0%, Projected Chance: 23.9%

    Peyton Manning is no longer a gunslinger, he is a game manager. The Denver offense that was once the envy of the league is now ordinary. Yet, there is value in backing the Broncos to win it all. Like they say, defense wins championships and the best unit in the game resides in Mile High.

    Carolina Panthers - No
    Odds: -250, Implied Chance: 71.4%, Projected Chance: 76.6%

    A strong indicator of future success is a team's yards per play differential. Carolina ranks in the top ten in this statistic, of course that came against the league's easiest schedule. The Panthers opponent in the NFC Championship game, Arizona, led the NFL in yards per play differential and that was against much stiffer competition.

    New England Patriots - No
    Odds: -250, Implied Chance: 71.4%, Projected Chance: 79.9%

    Tom Brady has dominated his matchup with Peyton Manning going 11-5 straight-up against his rival. Yet, when it really matters, Brady and the Patriots are just 1-2 against Manning in AFC title games. It is hard to win the Super Bowl if you don't reach the big game.

    “Yes”/”No” Super Bowl odds

    Team Yes No Chance To Win
    Arizona Cardinals +400 -600 32.4%
    Carolina Panthers +200 -250 23.4%
    Denver Broncos +400 -600 23.9%
    New England Patriots +200 -250 20.2%

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    NFL Trends Conference Titles (01/20/16)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    GameChangers Divisional (01/18/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    06/26/2017 Highlight: With the MLB season almost reaching its midpoint, we can take a look back at our Win Total Picks released at the beginning of the season to see where things currently stand. We released 22 playable win totals and at this point in the season, 15 of those 22 plays (68.2%) are on pace to be winners by the end of the season. Of the nine "normal or better" win totals that we released, seven of nine (77.8%) are looking like winners at this point.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Rockets Land Chris Paul - Breaking down the trade that sent CP3 to Houston
    Frank Brank breaks down the trade that sent CP3 to Houston and how much it positively impacts the Rockets heading into next season.

    Top Teams in NBA History
    We use advanced statistical methods to rank past great championship teams against the most recent NBA championship and powerhouse teams.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com